4 ms·

Hormuz is not a minefield though. According to sources, ships are moving near the coast of Iran, according to other sources they are being charged $2M per passa

by seydor 7mo ago

Hormuz is not a minefield though. According to sources, ships are moving near the coast of Iran, according to other sources they are being charged $2M per passage. According to other sources only Yuan paid oil is allowed.

jonplackett 7mo ago
I’m not sure this is intended to be factually accurate
- aaron695 7mo ago
  [dead]
diath 7mo ago
You can see for yourself if anything is passing: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:57.7/centery:27.1/zoom:7 https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:57.7/cente...
- mmmwww 7mo ago
  I've seen reports of ship turning off their AIS before attempting the strait, not sure if this is still valid but Marine Traffic only shows AIS signals that are turned on, which is as simple as flipping a switch. Also something Chinese fishing ships do around the galapagos and other regions to fish illegally.
- oxfeed65261 7mo ago
  A small number of ships are crossing with AIS off (and without the benefit of GPS, because it is jammed) by coordinating with Iran. For example: https://gcaptain.com/iranian-navy-guided-indian-tanker-through-hormuz-crew-member-says/ https://gcaptain.com/iranian-navy-guided-indian-tanker-throu.... These will not show up on Marine Traffic as they are transiting the strait.
  - dzhiurgis 7mo ago
    Wonder why US doesn’t spam the strait with fake AIS signals. Do Iranians have capability to spot ships in dark at night? If they employ radar - why not geolocate radar stations? Is there other techniques Iranians have for spotting ships (EW, SAR, etc)? If Shaheds use Starlink - how come SpaceX can’t geolocate the launch sites?
- raincole 7mo ago
  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4geg0eeyjeo https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4geg0eeyjeo > Before the war, about 138 ships passed through the strait each day according to the Joint Maritime Information Centre, carrying one fifth of the global oil supply. > The data provided by shipping analysts Kpler shows 99 vessels passing the narrow strait so far this month, an average of just 5-6 vessels a day. I mean, it's bad, but it's factually not a minefield. The threat isn't coming from mines anyway.
  - wood_spirit 7mo ago
    https://www.hisutton.com/Iranian-Naval-Mines.html https://www.hisutton.com/Iranian-Naval-Mines.html
  - CoastalCoder 7mo ago
    > I mean, it's bad, but it's factually not a minefield. That's not clear. Mines are generally concealed. It's the reason that mine-sweeping is slow and dangerous. And there's no public information (AFAIK) that let's us rule out mines having been, or even currently being, laid.
    - samus 7mo ago
      The risk of being targeted by missiles or drones works just as well. There is a reason NATO has to patrol the Red Sea with warships.
- sbuttgereit 7mo ago
  As others have mentioned, that's simply not going to tell you anything. AIS can and is often times turned off in such situations and it ships can spoof their location by sending false AIS... something that situations like could encourage, at least one could well imagine. I find Sal Mercogliano's "What's Going on With Shipping?" to be a better source to understanding what's happening in the Strait. Here's a link to yesterday's episode "Strait of Hormuz 3-Week Recap | What is the Status of the Ships, Transits and Escort Mission?": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q64cOs7GN_4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q64cOs7GN_4
0dayman 7mo ago
correct
beloch 7mo ago
It might not be. It might be. Uncertainty is the point of what Iran is doing. There might be mines in the straight that are sophisticated enough to be armed, disarmed, or moved on command, or there might not. There might be artillery emplacements* hidden and not found, ready to pop up... or there might not. There are probably still plenty of drones and missiles all over the country that can be called down on Hormuz at will. Iran might choose to save them for something else... or they might not. If a few oil tankers get through without Iran's permission, one might conclude everything Iran has in place has been found and that the straight is safe. Then again, it might not be. The Iranians might save a few choice surprises for the first aircraft carrier that gets too close. They might also choose to actually sink a large ship**, blocking the straight long-term. The Iranian regime has been planning specifically for a U.S. invasion since it's inception*** and they probably have some very well hidden and nasty surprises as well as plans to use them to maximum effect. Merchant vessels can't get insurance to go through because of all this uncertainty. The U.S. Navy has completely refused to go in there because losing a multi-billion dollar military vessel along with hundreds or thousands of sailors for a war that's already unpopular would likely knock the U.S. out of it completely. This is why Trump is desperate for other nations to come in and clear the straight. He doesn't care if they lose ships, but he can't afford to lose even one American ship for a "Wag the Dog" war that's already exploded the budget. ------------------- *The straight is narrow enough that artillery can actually cover it. Even the most sophisticated anti-missile defence systems aren't meant to deal with artillery shells fired from nearly point blank range. **The straight has only a couple of channels deep enough for large vessels to transit. One or two well positioned wrecks could block the works. *** They rebelled against a Shah installed by a CIA backed coup after all.
- donalhunt 7mo ago
  Lloyds who are one of the biggest players have indicated cover is available. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/20/risk-london-shipping-industry-iran-war-lloyds-of-london-premiums https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/20/risk-london...
  - andyjohnson0 7mo ago
donalhunt 7mo ago
Iran has indicated they will only target ships tied to countries that are involved in the conflict. That likely means US and Israel. Unclear if countries like the UK that are facilitating the US through use of their bases would be considered legitimate targets (likely yes).
- lukan 7mo ago
  Unfortunately Iran's leadership is in a bit of distress and communication disrupted, and "involved in the conflict" is a very broad term - so they do make some effort to get chinese oil out, but any ship not asking for explicit permission from Iran - will have some great risk of being targeted. Remember, the strait is not Iranian property, but International waters. So no one would have to ask them for permission, but that is the way it is and most do not risk it (insurance won't cover).
  - imadierich 7mo ago
    [dead]
  - fc417fc802 7mo ago
    > the strait is not Iranian property, but International waters That seems to depend on who you ask. Iran has expressed a differing opinion on the matter and appears to be capable of striking the area in practice.
  - Kwpolska 7mo ago
    Nah, the narrowest points are below 24 nautical miles, so all ships need to pass through Iran and/or Oman's territorial waters (12 nmi each).
- Pay08 7mo ago
  That's not how mines work. They don't only explode on people you want them to explode on.
  - catlifeonmars 7mo ago

by seydor 7mo ago

jonplackett 7mo ago

I’m not sure this is intended to be factually accurate

aaron695 7mo ago
[dead]

diath 7mo ago

You can see for yourself if anything is passing: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:57.7/centery:27.1/zoom:7 https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:57.7/cente...

mmmwww 7mo ago
I've seen reports of ship turning off their AIS before attempting the strait, not sure if this is still valid but Marine Traffic only shows AIS signals that are turned on, which is as simple as flipping a switch. Also something Chinese fishing ships do around the galapagos and other regions to fish illegally.
oxfeed65261 7mo ago
A small number of ships are crossing with AIS off (and without the benefit of GPS, because it is jammed) by coordinating with Iran. For example: https://gcaptain.com/iranian-navy-guided-indian-tanker-through-hormuz-crew-member-says/ https://gcaptain.com/iranian-navy-guided-indian-tanker-throu.... These will not show up on Marine Traffic as they are transiting the strait.
- dzhiurgis 7mo ago
  Wonder why US doesn’t spam the strait with fake AIS signals. Do Iranians have capability to spot ships in dark at night? If they employ radar - why not geolocate radar stations? Is there other techniques Iranians have for spotting ships (EW, SAR, etc)? If Shaheds use Starlink - how come SpaceX can’t geolocate the launch sites?
raincole 7mo ago
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4geg0eeyjeo https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4geg0eeyjeo > Before the war, about 138 ships passed through the strait each day according to the Joint Maritime Information Centre, carrying one fifth of the global oil supply. > The data provided by shipping analysts Kpler shows 99 vessels passing the narrow strait so far this month, an average of just 5-6 vessels a day. I mean, it's bad, but it's factually not a minefield. The threat isn't coming from mines anyway.
- wood_spirit 7mo ago
  https://www.hisutton.com/Iranian-Naval-Mines.html https://www.hisutton.com/Iranian-Naval-Mines.html
- CoastalCoder 7mo ago
  > I mean, it's bad, but it's factually not a minefield. That's not clear. Mines are generally concealed. It's the reason that mine-sweeping is slow and dangerous. And there's no public information (AFAIK) that let's us rule out mines having been, or even currently being, laid.
  - samus 7mo ago
    The risk of being targeted by missiles or drones works just as well. There is a reason NATO has to patrol the Red Sea with warships.
sbuttgereit 7mo ago
As others have mentioned, that's simply not going to tell you anything. AIS can and is often times turned off in such situations and it ships can spoof their location by sending false AIS... something that situations like could encourage, at least one could well imagine. I find Sal Mercogliano's "What's Going on With Shipping?" to be a better source to understanding what's happening in the Strait. Here's a link to yesterday's episode "Strait of Hormuz 3-Week Recap | What is the Status of the Ships, Transits and Escort Mission?": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q64cOs7GN_4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q64cOs7GN_4

0dayman 7mo ago

correct

beloch 7mo ago

It might not be. It might be. Uncertainty is the point of what Iran is doing. There might be mines in the straight that are sophisticated enough to be armed, disarmed, or moved on command, or there might not. There might be artillery emplacements* hidden and not found, ready to pop up... or there might not. There are probably still plenty of drones and missiles all over the country that can be called down on Hormuz at will. Iran might choose to save them for something else... or they might not. If a few oil tankers get through without Iran's permission, one might conclude everything Iran has in place has been found and that the straight is safe. Then again, it might not be. The Iranians might save a few choice surprises for the first aircraft carrier that gets too close. They might also choose to actually sink a large ship**, blocking the straight long-term. The Iranian regime has been planning specifically for a U.S. invasion since it's inception*** and they probably have some very well hidden and nasty surprises as well as plans to use them to maximum effect. Merchant vessels can't get insurance to go through because of all this uncertainty. The U.S. Navy has completely refused to go in there because losing a multi-billion dollar military vessel along with hundreds or thousands of sailors for a war that's already unpopular would likely knock the U.S. out of it completely. This is why Trump is desperate for other nations to come in and clear the straight. He doesn't care if they lose ships, but he can't afford to lose even one American ship for a "Wag the Dog" war that's already exploded the budget. ------------------- *The straight is narrow enough that artillery can actually cover it. Even the most sophisticated anti-missile defence systems aren't meant to deal with artillery shells fired from nearly point blank range. **The straight has only a couple of channels deep enough for large vessels to transit. One or two well positioned wrecks could block the works. *** They rebelled against a Shah installed by a CIA backed coup after all.

donalhunt 7mo ago
Lloyds who are one of the biggest players have indicated cover is available. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/20/risk-london-shipping-industry-iran-war-lloyds-of-london-premiums https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/20/risk-london...
- andyjohnson0 7mo ago

donalhunt 7mo ago

Iran has indicated they will only target ships tied to countries that are involved in the conflict. That likely means US and Israel. Unclear if countries like the UK that are facilitating the US through use of their bases would be considered legitimate targets (likely yes).

lukan 7mo ago
Unfortunately Iran's leadership is in a bit of distress and communication disrupted, and "involved in the conflict" is a very broad term - so they do make some effort to get chinese oil out, but any ship not asking for explicit permission from Iran - will have some great risk of being targeted. Remember, the strait is not Iranian property, but International waters. So no one would have to ask them for permission, but that is the way it is and most do not risk it (insurance won't cover).
- imadierich 7mo ago
  [dead]
- fc417fc802 7mo ago
  > the strait is not Iranian property, but International waters That seems to depend on who you ask. Iran has expressed a differing opinion on the matter and appears to be capable of striking the area in practice.
- Kwpolska 7mo ago
  Nah, the narrowest points are below 24 nautical miles, so all ships need to pass through Iran and/or Oman's territorial waters (12 nmi each).
Pay08 7mo ago
That's not how mines work. They don't only explode on people you want them to explode on.
- catlifeonmars 7mo ago