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These are basically my thoughts on the subject - as naive as they may be; I'm looking for greater enlightenment. I start by claiming/assuming that growth is one
by dkural 14y ago
These are basically my thoughts on the subject - as naive as they may be; I'm looking for greater enlightenment. I start by claiming/assuming that growth is one of the best ways out of the woods for the US economy.
Without taking a stance on either candidate; I'd like to point out that economically; the correlation between tax cuts / tax increases v.s. growth is weak; except for the extremes - and for the following reason: It's all about who'll spend it faster. If the government spends that money; the economy will grow. If the people who got the tax cuts spend that money; economy will grow.
With that in mind; let's look at the American case. Currently, US companies are sitting on top of > $1.5 trillion in cash in their US accounts. I applaud their decision not to spend this in face of weak demand. If you build another factory you won't be able to sell the goods.. etc. Thus - if we give people with high income / companies more cash through tax cuts; it is unlikely that they'll invest this to create jobs; mainly due to weak demand. They don't currently lack the money to invest; they simply think the returns don't justify the investment.
On the other hand; if the government were to just pay down debt in the short term with the money it would keep right now; this wouldn't help the economy much either.<p>The income of the middle class of this country has been declining in real terms for the past 30 years; which is killing demand everywhere. They need to be able to buy all the stuff companies produce. The middle class needs a tax cut & higher incomes. If there will be a tax cut; it should go to the middle class; because they'll spend the money.
Also, I'd like the government to keep some of the money and spend it. I'd like this to be spent in education; infrastructure; and science - areas of high return in the long term as well as the short.
I'd like the government to invest in upgrading the national infrastructure - bridges, roads, rails, energy distribution.. which means the companies getting the contracts get a lift. They will need and will procure everything from welders to bricklayers to cement .. The whole construction sector benefits.<p>I'd like to see NSF + NIH spending to increase. This is an investment in the American military so it can keep its technological edge. It is also the lifeblood of the technology and biotechnology industries - the crown jewels of the American economy.
I'd like to see investment in education; because many low-skilled jobs are not coming back. In the long term; an investment in education is the best indicator of macroeconomic success for a country.
So - it's not about tax cuts v.s. government. It's about a) who gets the tax cuts, will they spend it? b) how will the government spend the money? I'd like to see the candidates talk more about that.