5 ms·

that would be stupid and their regime is not stupid

breppp 7mo ago
Hardly, after attacking all their friends in the region, which would leave them even more isolated after the war, I would not attribute careful strategic planning either
- cjbgkagh 7mo ago
  “Better to be feared than loved” - Niccolo Machiavelli
- watwut 7mo ago
  They were not mutual friends. They were mutually hostile. And the friends are hosting american soldiers and bases.
  - breppp 7mo ago
    Qatar and Oman were mutually hostile? that's a very unique interpretation of Middle Eastern politics
jopsen 7mo ago
Do you think launching a dumb ICBM at New York would make the US put boots on the ground. I kind of doubt it's enough. This wouldn't be another 9/11, it would be merely be retaliation.
- kortilla 7mo ago
  It already looks like the US is sending marines over. Any excuse to make it more politically palatable would be latched onto.
- bdangubic 7mo ago
  the war is wildly unpopular in the US (rightfully so) - attacking US would rally the country (rightfully so) and regime would fall within a week (with significant casulties on our side)
  - AnimalMuppet 7mo ago
    Probably all true, except for the "within a week" part. We don't have nearly enough there yet to do that, and buildups take time.
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
  > This wouldn't be another 9/11, it would be merely be retaliation The Japanese and Al Qaeda framed their attacks defensively. An attack on the homeland is an attack on the homeland. I wouldn’t put it past Iran. But you’d rapidly see political consensus to ensure the regime is destroyed at all costs, including and up to leaving a power vacuum and humanitarian crisis.
- Hikikomori 7mo ago
  9/11 was retaliation for US imperialism.
9991 7mo ago
They're Muslims. You can debate whether that means 'stupid', but they've come to totally erroneous opinions on the structure of reality.
- bdangubic 7mo ago
  first, what does it matter whether they are Muslims or not? second, what is the structure of reality?! you may have some notion you know what “reality” is given what your media allows you to think - the actual reality is vastly different than you think it is - that is a certainty
- BLKNSLVR 7mo ago
  Equal to any other religion?
  - 9991 7mo ago
    No, not equal. They're all varying amounts of stupid.
    - donkeybeer 7mo ago
      About the same amount of stupid as the other Abrahamics I'd say.
- wolvoleo 7mo ago
  I disagree heavily with them too but that doesn't mean we should eradicate them. We can't expect the whole world population to be aligned. But once we start shooting they will obviously shoot back and we're many steps further away from the desired "agree to disagree and live together anyway" outcome that is the only way to peace. I mean the US tried this too with Afghanistan. Many lives lost, trillions of dollars wasted and everything was back to 'normal' in two weeks. Change has to come from within and the thing is this was actually happening in Iran. Now with military law and the regime uniting people against a common enemy this is much further away.
JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
> their regime is not stupid It’s pretty fucking stupid. Convening the top brass above ground, failing to scatter the navy, bombing Azerbaijan and Qatar and Oman. I’m not saying the individual actors are dumb. But the result of the competing centers of power between the IRGC, military proper, clerical establishment and god knows who else produces a stupid strategy.
- bdangubic 7mo ago
  what would be a non-stupid strategy?
  - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
    Broadly, taking American and Israeli threats seriously. And not overestimating how easily their neighbors would capitulate if bombed. Tactically, this would mean not concentrating senior leadership above ground. Scattering their navies out of port. Targeting U.S. military bases and not the civilian infrastructure around them.
PixyMisa 7mo ago
Their regime is made up of hardline Shia Twelvers that believe that if they kill enough people the Twelfth Imam will appear and lead them to global victory. Only problem is the Twelfth Imam has been dead for a thousand years. They may not be stupid, but they consistently act based on counterfactual beliefs.

Hardly, after attacking all their friends in the region, which would leave them even more isolated after the war, I would not attribute careful strategic planning either

cjbgkagh 7mo ago
“Better to be feared than loved” - Niccolo Machiavelli
watwut 7mo ago
They were not mutual friends. They were mutually hostile. And the friends are hosting american soldiers and bases.
- breppp 7mo ago
  Qatar and Oman were mutually hostile? that's a very unique interpretation of Middle Eastern politics

jopsen 7mo ago

Do you think launching a dumb ICBM at New York would make the US put boots on the ground. I kind of doubt it's enough. This wouldn't be another 9/11, it would be merely be retaliation.

kortilla 7mo ago
It already looks like the US is sending marines over. Any excuse to make it more politically palatable would be latched onto.
bdangubic 7mo ago
the war is wildly unpopular in the US (rightfully so) - attacking US would rally the country (rightfully so) and regime would fall within a week (with significant casulties on our side)
- AnimalMuppet 7mo ago
  Probably all true, except for the "within a week" part. We don't have nearly enough there yet to do that, and buildups take time.
JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
> This wouldn't be another 9/11, it would be merely be retaliation The Japanese and Al Qaeda framed their attacks defensively. An attack on the homeland is an attack on the homeland. I wouldn’t put it past Iran. But you’d rapidly see political consensus to ensure the regime is destroyed at all costs, including and up to leaving a power vacuum and humanitarian crisis.
Hikikomori 7mo ago
9/11 was retaliation for US imperialism.

9991 7mo ago

They're Muslims. You can debate whether that means 'stupid', but they've come to totally erroneous opinions on the structure of reality.

bdangubic 7mo ago
first, what does it matter whether they are Muslims or not? second, what is the structure of reality?! you may have some notion you know what “reality” is given what your media allows you to think - the actual reality is vastly different than you think it is - that is a certainty
BLKNSLVR 7mo ago
Equal to any other religion?
- 9991 7mo ago
  No, not equal. They're all varying amounts of stupid.
  - donkeybeer 7mo ago
    About the same amount of stupid as the other Abrahamics I'd say.
wolvoleo 7mo ago
I disagree heavily with them too but that doesn't mean we should eradicate them. We can't expect the whole world population to be aligned. But once we start shooting they will obviously shoot back and we're many steps further away from the desired "agree to disagree and live together anyway" outcome that is the only way to peace. I mean the US tried this too with Afghanistan. Many lives lost, trillions of dollars wasted and everything was back to 'normal' in two weeks. Change has to come from within and the thing is this was actually happening in Iran. Now with military law and the regime uniting people against a common enemy this is much further away.

JumpCrisscross 7mo ago

> their regime is not stupid It’s pretty fucking stupid. Convening the top brass above ground, failing to scatter the navy, bombing Azerbaijan and Qatar and Oman. I’m not saying the individual actors are dumb. But the result of the competing centers of power between the IRGC, military proper, clerical establishment and god knows who else produces a stupid strategy.

bdangubic 7mo ago
what would be a non-stupid strategy?
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
  Broadly, taking American and Israeli threats seriously. And not overestimating how easily their neighbors would capitulate if bombed. Tactically, this would mean not concentrating senior leadership above ground. Scattering their navies out of port. Targeting U.S. military bases and not the civilian infrastructure around them.

PixyMisa 7mo ago

Their regime is made up of hardline Shia Twelvers that believe that if they kill enough people the Twelfth Imam will appear and lead them to global victory. Only problem is the Twelfth Imam has been dead for a thousand years. They may not be stupid, but they consistently act based on counterfactual beliefs.