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Diego Garcia is strategically very important to global security according to the US Had something actually struck within the ADIZ there would have been massive

Diego Garcia is strategically very important to global security according to the US Had something actually struck within the ADIZ there would have been massive implications. My guess is they intentionally failed as a warning shot. This isn’t a random act and its quite the signal if you know what it means, Iran knows what it did here.

visuhire 7mo ago
I was reading that one of the two failed en route, and the other was intercepted. I don't think this was an intentional failure to hit.
- AndrewKemendo 7mo ago
  Sometimes getting shot down is the goal or at least a test to see what kind of response you’ll get
  - roughly 7mo ago
    Iran did the same before the conflict in response to prior Israeli attacks - the two drone waves they sent that were intercepted were both demonstrations of capability, not actual attacks. Unfortunately I’m not sure their current audience is gonna pick up the implied threat.
    - picture 7mo ago
      How do you know their intentions? It's also a bit unreasonable to launch live munitions that have some 90% probability of being intercepted by a given system on a good day, while intending for "just a warning"
      - AndrewKemendo 7mo ago
        It’s more like if David and Goliath are in a standoff David takes a small rock and whips it at a sensitive spot on Goliath’s ankles that most people don’t know about (Diego Garcia) David knows Goliath will probably dodge it, and most likely kick it away given it’s importance, but there’s a point being made by shooting: if it hits then that’s a win, but if gets knocked down it’s a warning that they know where they need to hit for it to hurt
        deleted 7mo ago
        [deleted]
      - roughly 7mo ago
        > How do you know their intentions? Because they declared them loudly. When they launched the drone strikes on Israel, they gave Israel and the US warning time so they could be intercepted. The second time, they gave them much less warning time. The Iranians have a long history of negotiating loudly via their actions, which anyone who's spent any reasonable amount of time studying Iran knows and has seen in action. They're really not a mystery, they're very transparent, we just don't like what they're saying.
    - srean 7mo ago
      Iran even has a history of calling in their attacks to ensure no one gets hurt. I don't think they did it this time, but they have in the past.
alephnerd 7mo ago
> This isn’t a random act and its quite the signal if you know what it means, Iran knows what it did here. It also publicizes Iran-NK military cooperation on ballistics development, which the Biden admin warned about [0], as well as Iran-Russia military cooperation (which was obviously much less under-the-radar). It also shows the merger of the Ukraine conflict with the West Asia conflict, and was a major reason why Fiona Hill argued we entered an unavoidable polycrisis in 2022 [1]. [0] - https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/us-official-says-iran-has-restarted-missile-co-operation-with-north-korea https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/us-officia... [1] - https://xcancel.com/FrankRGardner/status/2027098560647348410#m https://xcancel.com/FrankRGardner/status/2027098560647348410...
- AndrewKemendo 7mo ago
  Agreed, there’s so much intelligence in this act it’s really astonishing
  - alephnerd 7mo ago
    Yep. This action wasn't intended for the average HNer or Redditor to pontificate about. Those who they wanted to send a message to got the message, and it's a significant message up the escalation chain. Additionally, the fact that this is being very publicly disclosed and discussed in British media in a manner that RAF Akhrioti wasn't is also a massive signal.
- porridgeraisin 7mo ago
  How is this a merger of those two conflicts?
noir_lord 7mo ago
Would the Americans and Isreali’s start bombing mainland Iran and takin out their weapons and oil/gas infrastructure as retaliation?.
- chronic20001 7mo ago
  > Would the Americans and Isreali’s start bombing mainland Iran and takin out their weapons and oil/gas infrastructure as retaliation?. No that’s too easy. Give hope to Iran / Islamic world for a few months, then take it away.
- spaghetdefects 7mo ago
  Americans and Israelis literally started this war by bombing an Iranian girl's school. They've been bombing Iran every day since then.
  - iamtheworstdev 7mo ago
    i believe the parent comment was being sarcastic
Rebelgecko 7mo ago
If you're already at war, why waste resources on warning shots?
- deleted 7mo ago
  [deleted]
- AndrewKemendo 7mo ago
  Sometimes it’s worth it to test in production
- CamperBob2 7mo ago
  See also the Doolittle Raid.

visuhire 7mo ago

I was reading that one of the two failed en route, and the other was intercepted. I don't think this was an intentional failure to hit.

AndrewKemendo 7mo ago
Sometimes getting shot down is the goal or at least a test to see what kind of response you’ll get
- roughly 7mo ago
  Iran did the same before the conflict in response to prior Israeli attacks - the two drone waves they sent that were intercepted were both demonstrations of capability, not actual attacks. Unfortunately I’m not sure their current audience is gonna pick up the implied threat.
  - picture 7mo ago
    How do you know their intentions? It's also a bit unreasonable to launch live munitions that have some 90% probability of being intercepted by a given system on a good day, while intending for "just a warning"
    - AndrewKemendo 7mo ago
      It’s more like if David and Goliath are in a standoff David takes a small rock and whips it at a sensitive spot on Goliath’s ankles that most people don’t know about (Diego Garcia) David knows Goliath will probably dodge it, and most likely kick it away given it’s importance, but there’s a point being made by shooting: if it hits then that’s a win, but if gets knocked down it’s a warning that they know where they need to hit for it to hurt
      - deleted 7mo ago
        [deleted]
    - roughly 7mo ago
      > How do you know their intentions? Because they declared them loudly. When they launched the drone strikes on Israel, they gave Israel and the US warning time so they could be intercepted. The second time, they gave them much less warning time. The Iranians have a long history of negotiating loudly via their actions, which anyone who's spent any reasonable amount of time studying Iran knows and has seen in action. They're really not a mystery, they're very transparent, we just don't like what they're saying.
  - srean 7mo ago
    Iran even has a history of calling in their attacks to ensure no one gets hurt. I don't think they did it this time, but they have in the past.

alephnerd 7mo ago

> This isn’t a random act and its quite the signal if you know what it means, Iran knows what it did here. It also publicizes Iran-NK military cooperation on ballistics development, which the Biden admin warned about [0], as well as Iran-Russia military cooperation (which was obviously much less under-the-radar). It also shows the merger of the Ukraine conflict with the West Asia conflict, and was a major reason why Fiona Hill argued we entered an unavoidable polycrisis in 2022 [1]. [0] - https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/us-official-says-iran-has-restarted-missile-co-operation-with-north-korea https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/us-officia... [1] - https://xcancel.com/FrankRGardner/status/2027098560647348410#m https://xcancel.com/FrankRGardner/status/2027098560647348410...

AndrewKemendo 7mo ago
Agreed, there’s so much intelligence in this act it’s really astonishing
- alephnerd 7mo ago
  Yep. This action wasn't intended for the average HNer or Redditor to pontificate about. Those who they wanted to send a message to got the message, and it's a significant message up the escalation chain. Additionally, the fact that this is being very publicly disclosed and discussed in British media in a manner that RAF Akhrioti wasn't is also a massive signal.
porridgeraisin 7mo ago
How is this a merger of those two conflicts?

noir_lord 7mo ago

Would the Americans and Isreali’s start bombing mainland Iran and takin out their weapons and oil/gas infrastructure as retaliation?.

chronic20001 7mo ago
> Would the Americans and Isreali’s start bombing mainland Iran and takin out their weapons and oil/gas infrastructure as retaliation?. No that’s too easy. Give hope to Iran / Islamic world for a few months, then take it away.
spaghetdefects 7mo ago
Americans and Israelis literally started this war by bombing an Iranian girl's school. They've been bombing Iran every day since then.
- iamtheworstdev 7mo ago
  i believe the parent comment was being sarcastic

Rebelgecko 7mo ago

If you're already at war, why waste resources on warning shots?

deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
AndrewKemendo 7mo ago
Sometimes it’s worth it to test in production
CamperBob2 7mo ago
See also the Doolittle Raid.