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> Have you actually seen the news and the situation? Have you seen what's happened to wholesale power market prices? Have you seen that BYD's care sales in 202

> Have you actually seen the news and the situation? Have you seen what's happened to wholesale power market prices? Have you seen that BYD's care sales in 2026 are down y/y? Trusting anecdotal hype from BYD salesmen and a renewables blog isn't sensible.

nico 7mo ago
I wasn't talking about BYD in particular, nor referencing any numbers or quotes from the blog. I was responding to the above comment mocking/doubting people's decisions about EV purchases and showing how that contrasts with the current macro situation Feel free to expand on the wholesale power market prices you are referring to though, not sure what your take is
- caminante 7mo ago
  > I wasn't talking about BYD in particular, You quoted the parent's mention of BYD.
mbgerring 7mo ago
Wholesale power market prices are responding to shocks in the natural gas market from two wars that disrupted those supply chains. Solar and batteries have been and will continue to he the cheapest source of power, and globally, deployment is accelerating. Not so much in the US, where our braindead political culture is intent on ignoring the obvious economic advantage of renewables, but definitely everywhere else in the world.
- caminante 7mo ago
  > Solar and batteries have been and will continue to he the cheapest source of power, and globally, deployment is accelerating. I think storage is great and solar has a place, but this is not true unless you discard reliability and other features, which should be in the price. Solar plus storage for baseload power matching requires huge overbuilds. Even in the last few years, before the AI hype, installed utility scale renewables costs went up in the US. It's not just the hardware or national politics. And if you can't get renewables interconnected in a couple years, then the install rate won't lower the carbon of the existing grid mix charging your car.
  - mbgerring 7mo ago
    Why would you need to “discard reliability”? What do you think storage is for? People have been saying that solar will never work for my entire life, and my entire career in clean energy, as I have watched it grow and grow and grow and grow. You’re right that the interconnect queue is broken. Many, many people are working on this problem. Believing that an extremely tractable bureaucratic hurdle means that solar can’t work is madness.
    - caminante 7mo ago
      No, solar reliability requires overbuild and storage to compare accurately on LCOE. Hybrid and overbuild = expensive, so not "cheap/er", which you said. A lot of people have this misconception about solar even with awareness of the duck curve.
      - mbgerring 7mo ago
        Is this still true after a bunch of natural gas infrastructure got blown up this week?
        caminante 7mo ago
        > Solar and batteries have been and will continue... Yes, your statement is still false. Opposite is true.
        mbgerring 7mo ago
        I don’t think this is correct. You’re arguing that the industry analyses on this subject are wrong because they’re underestimating how much solar + batteries need to be deployed to be as reliable as a gas power plant. So you’re arguing that initial capex (which everyone acknowledges is higher than natural gas) is somewhat higher than existing analyses think it is. The lifetime of solar panels is also higher than most of these analyses say it is, because both solar and batteries are frequently found to last well beyond their factory-rated lifetimes. So I think you’re wrong without any additional considerations here, so let’s leave that aside. What you’re saying here is that the lower ongoing opex of solar and batteries is eaten up by the higher initial capex of gas, but you’re saying the prive of natural gas has no impact on this calculation. I don’t think this makes any sense. Can you explain your thinking here? Can you cite any data on this?

nico 7mo ago

I wasn't talking about BYD in particular, nor referencing any numbers or quotes from the blog. I was responding to the above comment mocking/doubting people's decisions about EV purchases and showing how that contrasts with the current macro situation Feel free to expand on the wholesale power market prices you are referring to though, not sure what your take is

caminante 7mo ago
> I wasn't talking about BYD in particular, You quoted the parent's mention of BYD.

mbgerring 7mo ago

Wholesale power market prices are responding to shocks in the natural gas market from two wars that disrupted those supply chains. Solar and batteries have been and will continue to he the cheapest source of power, and globally, deployment is accelerating. Not so much in the US, where our braindead political culture is intent on ignoring the obvious economic advantage of renewables, but definitely everywhere else in the world.

caminante 7mo ago
> Solar and batteries have been and will continue to he the cheapest source of power, and globally, deployment is accelerating. I think storage is great and solar has a place, but this is not true unless you discard reliability and other features, which should be in the price. Solar plus storage for baseload power matching requires huge overbuilds. Even in the last few years, before the AI hype, installed utility scale renewables costs went up in the US. It's not just the hardware or national politics. And if you can't get renewables interconnected in a couple years, then the install rate won't lower the carbon of the existing grid mix charging your car.
- mbgerring 7mo ago
  Why would you need to “discard reliability”? What do you think storage is for? People have been saying that solar will never work for my entire life, and my entire career in clean energy, as I have watched it grow and grow and grow and grow. You’re right that the interconnect queue is broken. Many, many people are working on this problem. Believing that an extremely tractable bureaucratic hurdle means that solar can’t work is madness.
  - caminante 7mo ago
    No, solar reliability requires overbuild and storage to compare accurately on LCOE. Hybrid and overbuild = expensive, so not "cheap/er", which you said. A lot of people have this misconception about solar even with awareness of the duck curve.
    - mbgerring 7mo ago
      Is this still true after a bunch of natural gas infrastructure got blown up this week?
      - caminante 7mo ago
        > Solar and batteries have been and will continue... Yes, your statement is still false. Opposite is true.
        mbgerring 7mo ago
        I don’t think this is correct. You’re arguing that the industry analyses on this subject are wrong because they’re underestimating how much solar + batteries need to be deployed to be as reliable as a gas power plant. So you’re arguing that initial capex (which everyone acknowledges is higher than natural gas) is somewhat higher than existing analyses think it is. The lifetime of solar panels is also higher than most of these analyses say it is, because both solar and batteries are frequently found to last well beyond their factory-rated lifetimes. So I think you’re wrong without any additional considerations here, so let’s leave that aside. What you’re saying here is that the lower ongoing opex of solar and batteries is eaten up by the higher initial capex of gas, but you’re saying the prive of natural gas has no impact on this calculation. I don’t think this makes any sense. Can you explain your thinking here? Can you cite any data on this?