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So much data, but they're missing the total share of EVs on the road, and on that figure Norway is still only a third of the way to 100%: https://ourworldindat

So much data, but they're missing the total share of EVs on the road, and on that figure Norway is still only a third of the way to 100%: https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/one-third-of-cars-on-the-road-in-norway-are-now-electric https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/one-third-of-cars-o... And Norway is a "best case" as a wealthy country where people turn over their cars pretty quickly. The Philippines is at the opposite end of the spectrum.

toomuchtodo 7mo ago
Certainly, it's going to take time, but peak global combustion vehicle sales are long behind us (2017). Global fleet will turn over to EVs eventually, we're just arguing time horizon based on how quickly EV deployment ramps and combustion sales are destroyed. Combustion vehicle sales will only keep declining. Developing countries will soak up cheap EVs made by China, they will skip over combustion vehicles with higher total cost of ownership. Combustion vehicles will age out eventually as EV sales continue to increase. > Globally, over 1-in-5 (22%) of new cars sold were electric in 2024. This share was 92% in Norway, and in China, it was almost 50%. In 2025, it was 1-in-4 (25%). What will expensive oil do? It will pull these trajectories more vertical. Global oil price stuck in triple digits. Goldman Sachs says it may stay there for years - https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/20/energy/oil-gas-prices-intl-hnk https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/20/energy/oil-gas-prices-intl-hn... - March 20th, 2026 Our World In Data: Tracking global data on electric vehicles - https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales Ember Energy: China Cleantech Exports Data Explorer - https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-explorer/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-e... The World Hit ‘Peak’ Gas-Powered Vehicle Sales — in 2017 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-hit-peak-gas-powered-vehicles-as-evs-gain-market-share https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-hit... | https://archive.today/p2hl1 https://archive.today/p2hl1 - January 30th, 2024 Electric Cars Pass a Crucial Tipping Point in 23 Countries - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/electric-cars-pass-a-crucial-tipping-point-in-23-countries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/electric-... | https://archive.today/e8XSt https://archive.today/e8XSt - August 27th, 2023
linkregister 7mo ago
It's not rational to expect owners to discard equipment long before the end of its service life, especially when the operational costs are not an order of magnitude lower. Without time travel or CCCP circa 1955 property controls, a 100% EV ownership benchmark is unreasonable.
fpoling 7mo ago
Average age of cars in Norway is higher than in many other countries due to high taxes on cars. And then in China number of cars per capita is much less then in West. As more and more people there can afford a car and that car will be EV, transitioning to mostly EV should happen faster than in Norway.

toomuchtodo 7mo ago

Certainly, it's going to take time, but peak global combustion vehicle sales are long behind us (2017). Global fleet will turn over to EVs eventually, we're just arguing time horizon based on how quickly EV deployment ramps and combustion sales are destroyed. Combustion vehicle sales will only keep declining. Developing countries will soak up cheap EVs made by China, they will skip over combustion vehicles with higher total cost of ownership. Combustion vehicles will age out eventually as EV sales continue to increase. > Globally, over 1-in-5 (22%) of new cars sold were electric in 2024. This share was 92% in Norway, and in China, it was almost 50%. In 2025, it was 1-in-4 (25%). What will expensive oil do? It will pull these trajectories more vertical. Global oil price stuck in triple digits. Goldman Sachs says it may stay there for years - https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/20/energy/oil-gas-prices-intl-hnk https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/20/energy/oil-gas-prices-intl-hn... - March 20th, 2026 Our World In Data: Tracking global data on electric vehicles - https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales Ember Energy: China Cleantech Exports Data Explorer - https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-explorer/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-e... The World Hit ‘Peak’ Gas-Powered Vehicle Sales — in 2017 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-hit-peak-gas-powered-vehicles-as-evs-gain-market-share https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-hit... | https://archive.today/p2hl1 https://archive.today/p2hl1 - January 30th, 2024 Electric Cars Pass a Crucial Tipping Point in 23 Countries - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/electric-cars-pass-a-crucial-tipping-point-in-23-countries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/electric-... | https://archive.today/e8XSt https://archive.today/e8XSt - August 27th, 2023

linkregister 7mo ago

It's not rational to expect owners to discard equipment long before the end of its service life, especially when the operational costs are not an order of magnitude lower. Without time travel or CCCP circa 1955 property controls, a 100% EV ownership benchmark is unreasonable.

fpoling 7mo ago

Average age of cars in Norway is higher than in many other countries due to high taxes on cars. And then in China number of cars per capita is much less then in West. As more and more people there can afford a car and that car will be EV, transitioning to mostly EV should happen faster than in Norway.