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New sales are the leading indicator to total fleet composition turnover. As oil prices stay high into the future, and monthly sales of EVs continues to increase

New sales are the leading indicator to total fleet composition turnover. As oil prices stay high into the future, and monthly sales of EVs continues to increase, it speeds fleet turnover from combustion to EVs. Ember Energy: ASEAN emerges as a new leader in global EV adoption - https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/asean-emerges-as-a-new-leader-in-global-ev-adoption/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/asean-emerges-as-a-n... - December 16th, 2025 You can see how this looks over a longer term using Norway's data as they transitioned to ~100% EV sales: https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/ https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/

decimalenough 8mo ago
So much data, but they're missing the total share of EVs on the road, and on that figure Norway is still only a third of the way to 100%: https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/one-third-of-cars-on-the-road-in-norway-are-now-electric https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/one-third-of-cars-o... And Norway is a "best case" as a wealthy country where people turn over their cars pretty quickly. The Philippines is at the opposite end of the spectrum.
- toomuchtodo 8mo ago
  Certainly, it's going to take time, but peak global combustion vehicle sales are long behind us (2017). Global fleet will turn over to EVs eventually, we're just arguing time horizon based on how quickly EV deployment ramps and combustion sales are destroyed. Combustion vehicle sales will only keep declining. Developing countries will soak up cheap EVs made by China, they will skip over combustion vehicles with higher total cost of ownership. Combustion vehicles will age out eventually as EV sales continue to increase. > Globally, over 1-in-5 (22%) of new cars sold were electric in 2024. This share was 92% in Norway, and in China, it was almost 50%. In 2025, it was 1-in-4 (25%). What will expensive oil do? It will pull these trajectories more vertical. Global oil price stuck in triple digits. Goldman Sachs says it may stay there for years - https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/20/energy/oil-gas-prices-intl-hnk https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/20/energy/oil-gas-prices-intl-hn... - March 20th, 2026 Our World In Data: Tracking global data on electric vehicles - https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales Ember Energy: China Cleantech Exports Data Explorer - https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-explorer/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-e... The World Hit ‘Peak’ Gas-Powered Vehicle Sales — in 2017 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-hit-peak-gas-powered-vehicles-as-evs-gain-market-share https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-hit... | https://archive.today/p2hl1 https://archive.today/p2hl1 - January 30th, 2024 Electric Cars Pass a Crucial Tipping Point in 23 Countries - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/electric-cars-pass-a-crucial-tipping-point-in-23-countries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/electric-... | https://archive.today/e8XSt https://archive.today/e8XSt - August 27th, 2023
- linkregister 8mo ago
  It's not rational to expect owners to discard equipment long before the end of its service life, especially when the operational costs are not an order of magnitude lower. Without time travel or CCCP circa 1955 property controls, a 100% EV ownership benchmark is unreasonable.
- fpoling 8mo ago
  Average age of cars in Norway is higher than in many other countries due to high taxes on cars. And then in China number of cars per capita is much less then in West. As more and more people there can afford a car and that car will be EV, transitioning to mostly EV should happen faster than in Norway.

decimalenough 8mo ago

So much data, but they're missing the total share of EVs on the road, and on that figure Norway is still only a third of the way to 100%: https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/one-third-of-cars-on-the-road-in-norway-are-now-electric https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/one-third-of-cars-o... And Norway is a "best case" as a wealthy country where people turn over their cars pretty quickly. The Philippines is at the opposite end of the spectrum.

toomuchtodo 8mo ago
Certainly, it's going to take time, but peak global combustion vehicle sales are long behind us (2017). Global fleet will turn over to EVs eventually, we're just arguing time horizon based on how quickly EV deployment ramps and combustion sales are destroyed. Combustion vehicle sales will only keep declining. Developing countries will soak up cheap EVs made by China, they will skip over combustion vehicles with higher total cost of ownership. Combustion vehicles will age out eventually as EV sales continue to increase. > Globally, over 1-in-5 (22%) of new cars sold were electric in 2024. This share was 92% in Norway, and in China, it was almost 50%. In 2025, it was 1-in-4 (25%). What will expensive oil do? It will pull these trajectories more vertical. Global oil price stuck in triple digits. Goldman Sachs says it may stay there for years - https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/20/energy/oil-gas-prices-intl-hnk https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/20/energy/oil-gas-prices-intl-hn... - March 20th, 2026 Our World In Data: Tracking global data on electric vehicles - https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales Ember Energy: China Cleantech Exports Data Explorer - https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-explorer/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-e... The World Hit ‘Peak’ Gas-Powered Vehicle Sales — in 2017 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-hit-peak-gas-powered-vehicles-as-evs-gain-market-share https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-hit... | https://archive.today/p2hl1 https://archive.today/p2hl1 - January 30th, 2024 Electric Cars Pass a Crucial Tipping Point in 23 Countries - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/electric-cars-pass-a-crucial-tipping-point-in-23-countries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/electric-... | https://archive.today/e8XSt https://archive.today/e8XSt - August 27th, 2023
linkregister 8mo ago
It's not rational to expect owners to discard equipment long before the end of its service life, especially when the operational costs are not an order of magnitude lower. Without time travel or CCCP circa 1955 property controls, a 100% EV ownership benchmark is unreasonable.
fpoling 8mo ago
Average age of cars in Norway is higher than in many other countries due to high taxes on cars. And then in China number of cars per capita is much less then in West. As more and more people there can afford a car and that car will be EV, transitioning to mostly EV should happen faster than in Norway.