4 ms·

Is it time to short AAPL? They've lost some value recently, and the growth proposition doesn't seem to be where it has been. I could see them stay where they ar

by debacle 14y ago

Is it time to short AAPL? They've lost some value recently, and the growth proposition doesn't seem to be where it has been. I could see them stay where they are, even with an earnings miss or two, however they are very much a stock traded on public perception.

wmf 14y ago
My perception is that Apple could lose every one of these lawsuits and still make crazy profits, but YMMV. Looking at this particular case, it seems extremely arrogant for Apple to offer to pay nothing for the ~100M admittedly-infringing products they've already sold.
- eridius 14y ago
  Where did this idea of Apple paying nothing for the patents come from? I've never heard anyone suggest that, and it seems completely unrelated to debacle's comment.
  - wmf 14y ago
    Apple proposed to pay Moto at most $1/unit "going forward", which has been interpreted (perhaps wrongly) to mean that they want to pay nothing for past infringement.
ryanhuff 14y ago
Their P/E ratio is just 13.26, while Microsoft's is 16.05 and Google is 21.38. While P/E is just one simplistic measure, it does seem to indicate that their stock price already assumes lower future earnings relative to other mature tech companies.
- MaysonL 14y ago
  And yet they're growing like crazy compare to Microsoft and Google.
- revelation 14y ago
  Or it indicates that they are a hardware company, which is to say their ability to grow (or sustain) their business depends on any number of factors, not the least being political stability and conditions in China. Factors over which they can exert very little control.
danielweber 14y ago
AAPL is not going to have trouble because of lawsuits. It is going to have trouble if/when they lose the magic touch.
- Shivetya 14y ago
  Not till the day where we see Android based tablets littering nearly every good TV show and movie. These lawsuits and such are meaningless to the coffee shop / college crowd. Apple is as much an image thing as BMW cars were for the previous generation. Far too many think that their phone, tablet, or laptop, confers status. That is going to take a lot of work to overcome that attitude. The marketing and product placement that it took to create that is the real power of Apple
  - tehayj 14y ago
    Apple loses its cool right now... quickly. Wait and see. The problem for Apple is that also the "uninformed crowd" slowly starts to realize that Apple rips them off. That's at least what's happening here in Germany where also mainstream newspapers talk negative about Apple's politics when it comes to marketing and / or lawsuits.
    - taligent 14y ago
      I am so sick of this "Apple users are uninformed" rubbish. If we want to play this game then how about this survey: http://www.androidauthority.com/are-iphone-users-richer-better-educated-than-android-users-105032/ http://www.androidauthority.com/are-iphone-users-richer-bett... Apple iPhone users are generally older, better-educated and earn higher than those using Android. Aren't generalisations fun !
      - thechut 14y ago
        > generally older, better-educated and earn higher Could easily be argued that older more "professional" users as you infer are very much less informed than younger more tech savvy android users
incision 14y ago
At a glance, yes. I'm not actively trading, but my "system" would have suggested to consider shorting them on 9/20 and again on 10/23. I think you're right about public perception. For that reason, I think heavily about any signals with a technical base. I've had some sense of a perception shift since summer when the price was in this area previously. Though, I haven't taken a real position on AAPL since it was going sideways around $380 almost a year ago.

by debacle 14y ago

wmf 14y ago

My perception is that Apple could lose every one of these lawsuits and still make crazy profits, but YMMV. Looking at this particular case, it seems extremely arrogant for Apple to offer to pay nothing for the ~100M admittedly-infringing products they've already sold.

eridius 14y ago
Where did this idea of Apple paying nothing for the patents come from? I've never heard anyone suggest that, and it seems completely unrelated to debacle's comment.
- wmf 14y ago
  Apple proposed to pay Moto at most $1/unit "going forward", which has been interpreted (perhaps wrongly) to mean that they want to pay nothing for past infringement.

ryanhuff 14y ago

Their P/E ratio is just 13.26, while Microsoft's is 16.05 and Google is 21.38. While P/E is just one simplistic measure, it does seem to indicate that their stock price already assumes lower future earnings relative to other mature tech companies.

MaysonL 14y ago
And yet they're growing like crazy compare to Microsoft and Google.
revelation 14y ago
Or it indicates that they are a hardware company, which is to say their ability to grow (or sustain) their business depends on any number of factors, not the least being political stability and conditions in China. Factors over which they can exert very little control.

danielweber 14y ago

AAPL is not going to have trouble because of lawsuits. It is going to have trouble if/when they lose the magic touch.

Shivetya 14y ago
Not till the day where we see Android based tablets littering nearly every good TV show and movie. These lawsuits and such are meaningless to the coffee shop / college crowd. Apple is as much an image thing as BMW cars were for the previous generation. Far too many think that their phone, tablet, or laptop, confers status. That is going to take a lot of work to overcome that attitude. The marketing and product placement that it took to create that is the real power of Apple
- tehayj 14y ago
  Apple loses its cool right now... quickly. Wait and see. The problem for Apple is that also the "uninformed crowd" slowly starts to realize that Apple rips them off. That's at least what's happening here in Germany where also mainstream newspapers talk negative about Apple's politics when it comes to marketing and / or lawsuits.
  - taligent 14y ago
    I am so sick of this "Apple users are uninformed" rubbish. If we want to play this game then how about this survey: http://www.androidauthority.com/are-iphone-users-richer-better-educated-than-android-users-105032/ http://www.androidauthority.com/are-iphone-users-richer-bett... Apple iPhone users are generally older, better-educated and earn higher than those using Android. Aren't generalisations fun !
    - thechut 14y ago
      > generally older, better-educated and earn higher Could easily be argued that older more "professional" users as you infer are very much less informed than younger more tech savvy android users

incision 14y ago

At a glance, yes. I'm not actively trading, but my "system" would have suggested to consider shorting them on 9/20 and again on 10/23. I think you're right about public perception. For that reason, I think heavily about any signals with a technical base. I've had some sense of a perception shift since summer when the price was in this area previously. Though, I haven't taken a real position on AAPL since it was going sideways around $380 almost a year ago.