2 ms·

> most people want a white collar job and send their kids to college Part of the reason for my prior comment is the clear fact that a not-insignificant percent

> most people want a white collar job and send their kids to college Part of the reason for my prior comment is the clear fact that a not-insignificant percentage of white collar jobs are being massively devalued at the moment, which means many people who thought they'd be able to send their kids to college with income from such jobs won't. Considering that the field of robotics is so far behind LLMs in terms of clear value outside of niche industrial applications, I think manual labor is about due for a resurgence. There may be some major rebalancing happening. The big question for laborers will be - as it has always been - what can I do that sucks the least but also allows me to pay for a decent life? Answers will vary.

bonoboTP 7mo ago
I'm not sure how long this state of robotics will last. Dexterity is improving very fast. Robots are getting cheaper and cheaper. But also, a lot of the manual labor is quite expensive and only affordable as long as there are white collar workers who can pay for fancy bathroom remodelings and landscaping and so on. I don't know how a big deluge of reskilled pipefitters and HVAC technicians will be able to find work. Will everyone just pay each other to do a bunch of handy work for each other?
- briHass 7mo ago
  This is the point missed by many. The trades are in high demand, right now, because of a labor shortage and demand from upper-middle class individuals without any DIY skills. A generation or two of pushing kids into college, and an almost disparaging view of 'getting your hands dirty' has built this perfect storm. However, besides a few trades that use unions/licensure/apprenticeship as an artificial supply limit, most trades are only limited by a willingness to do the work. A few decades ago, trade work was much less expensive, because supply was higher and many did their own DIY, which limited what prices the market would tolerate.
- slfnflctd 7mo ago
  > Will everyone just pay each other to do a bunch of handy work for each other? May not be as crazy of a thought as it seems on the surface. There are many different types of not-easily-roboticized manual work, doable by people of varying skillsets and physical abilities, which will continue to hold value due to our basic physiological needs. The lower bound, or 'floor', of this value is not going to sink lower than group consensus among wide swaths of the population allows.

bonoboTP 7mo ago

I'm not sure how long this state of robotics will last. Dexterity is improving very fast. Robots are getting cheaper and cheaper. But also, a lot of the manual labor is quite expensive and only affordable as long as there are white collar workers who can pay for fancy bathroom remodelings and landscaping and so on. I don't know how a big deluge of reskilled pipefitters and HVAC technicians will be able to find work. Will everyone just pay each other to do a bunch of handy work for each other?

briHass 7mo ago
This is the point missed by many. The trades are in high demand, right now, because of a labor shortage and demand from upper-middle class individuals without any DIY skills. A generation or two of pushing kids into college, and an almost disparaging view of 'getting your hands dirty' has built this perfect storm. However, besides a few trades that use unions/licensure/apprenticeship as an artificial supply limit, most trades are only limited by a willingness to do the work. A few decades ago, trade work was much less expensive, because supply was higher and many did their own DIY, which limited what prices the market would tolerate.
slfnflctd 7mo ago
> Will everyone just pay each other to do a bunch of handy work for each other? May not be as crazy of a thought as it seems on the surface. There are many different types of not-easily-roboticized manual work, doable by people of varying skillsets and physical abilities, which will continue to hold value due to our basic physiological needs. The lower bound, or 'floor', of this value is not going to sink lower than group consensus among wide swaths of the population allows.