My problem with Taleb and all the attention he's been getting lately because of the financial crisis is that I think it's a logical jump to go from those critic

My problem with Taleb and all the attention he's been getting lately because of the financial crisis is that I think it's a logical jump to go from those criticisms to "these models are bad, because of black swans". These models are bad because the companies that have been bet on their accuracy go bust. They go bust because they assume that the probability of "black swans" such as housing prices throughout the country all going down at the same time is vanishingly small when it isn't.