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China has a host of factors that make their current system very fragile. I doubt they make it five more years before turbulence hits.
by ungreased0675 7mo ago
China has a host of factors that make their current system very fragile. I doubt they make it five more years before turbulence hits.
- fc417fc802 7mo agoI'd be interested to read about that if you have any particular pointers to resources to share.
- __d 7mo agoI've been hearing that since the 1990's when it first started to become apparent that their economy was on track to overtake the rest of the world within a few decades. It hasn't happened yet. Is there something you perceive as especially problematic now, as opposed to the last 30 years?
- defrost 7mo agoThey'll likely skate over the current turbulence that's already hitting many non-China countries. China has been preparing for a global energy crisis for years. It is paying off now As other Asian economies race to conserve energy, China has huge reserves of oil and gas as well as alternative energy sources like wind and solar https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/20/china-oil-reserves-global-energy-crisis https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/20/china-oil-rese...
- pydry 7mo agoBeen hearing that said repeatedly since 1989. I've never once heard it from somebody who correctly anticipated China's rise though. The imminent collapse story just quietly changes every 5 years or so. If the US has an imperial rival one thing you can almost guarantee is that the predictions of economic collapse will be as frequent as they are absurdly overblown and as always, This Time It's Different.
- cthalupa 7mo agoLook, if Gordon Chang and Peter Zeihan continue to predict China will fall for long enough, someday they'll be right. Maybe. Probably.