7 ms·
Some airlines are cancelling flights left and right, others are jacking up the prices. If the war keeps going on into the summer, there's going to be some very
by TrackerFF 7mo ago
Some airlines are cancelling flights left and right, others are jacking up the prices. If the war keeps going on into the summer, there's going to be some very obvious consumer-facing issues. From gas prices, very expensive travel, price hikes in logistics, you name it.
- derf_ 7mo agoI think the timeline is much shorter than that. These oil-producing nations have not invested in a lot of storage, because they usually ship everything out immediately. Once you no longer have anywhere to put the oil, you have to start shutting down production, and it is not easy to restart. We'll be at that point in maybe another week and a half.
- general1465 7mo agoOr even sooner if Iran intensifies striking of storages. The whole Gulf is starting to feel like a complete write off...
- mattmaroon 7mo ago2021 all over again except now we don’t even get a new president.
- solstice 7mo agoIs there anyone here with a deeper understanding of oilfield geology and engineering? Given that: - storage facilities in the region are limited and in some cases almost full - mature oil fields need constant water injections to pump out the remaining crude How likely is it that stopping crude extraction (and therefore the water injections) will permanently damage the oil reservoirs? And based on that is it possible that countries with this type of mature oil fields would consider simply dumping the excess crude that can't be stored anymore in the desert or in the Gulf of Persia?
- toomuchtodo 7mo agoRestarting Fieldwide Shutdown for Middle East Oil and Gas Producers is Not Easy - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47443238 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47443238 - March 2026 is a resource I found helpful.
- OgsyedIE 7mo agoThere is one way that production could resume, of course: a public peace that is both real and accompanied by Iranian broadcast of orders to their coastal troops to stand down. Given the ongoing campaign to assassinate Iranian diplomats who may be willing to negotiate peace whilst leaving hardliners alive, the only question is what kind of inducements will be necessary to get them to agree?
- cogman10 7mo agoI don't think anything short of the US completely cutting ties with Israel would make Iran consider backing down at this point. And even then, I expect they'll continue directly attacking Israel.
- srean 7mo agoSuch a change given Iran was one of the few Middle-Eastern countries to approve of the UN resolution calling for the formation of Israel.
- cogman10 7mo agoNot exactly a recent change. Since the '79 revolution Iran has had a pretty hostile position against Israel and the US. A big part of that hostility was because the US and the UK overthrew their democracy to install a puppet dictator in '53.
- srean 7mo agoIndeed. Having petroleum reserves is almost always a curse. Norway seems to be the only country to have escaped unmolested.
- cogman10 7mo agoHaving anything a rich person in the US wants is a curse. We've overthrown governments for bananas and sugar. We tried to overthrow a government for cigars. Basically the only reason Norway escaped this curse was they were next door to the USSR and the US knew fucking around there could easily land it in the USSR potentially also taking Sweden with it.
- otikik 7mo agoEspecially so for the consumers living in the bombed areas
- mullingitover 7mo agoA few critical items beyond oil are also now in short supply: Fertilizer, which is kind of important right now since it's springtime and farmers are planting crops around the world. Plastic, without which modern hospitals can't operate. Aluminum. The list goes on, this was the dumbest war in our lifetimes but it's the culmination of a lot of previous stupidity that made it all possible. The people who started this war are authoritarians and, let's be honest, straight up criminals, who did it to entrench their grip on their own domestic politics.
- cogman10 7mo ago[flagged]
- mullingitover 7mo ago> no to plastic, "Dow CEO says up to 50% of polyethylene supply is offline, constrained or impacted amid Middle East disruptions - conf call" [1] [1] https://www.marketscreener.com/news/dow-ceo-says-up-to-50-of-polyethylene-supply-is-offline-constrained-or-impacted-amid-middle-east-d-ce7e5ed9d880f721 https://www.marketscreener.com/news/dow-ceo-says-up-to-50-of...
- cogman10 7mo ago[flagged]
- mullingitover 7mo agoEven if there's plenty of supply, this is still a major supply chain disruption that will have ripple effects. Combine this with all the other major supply chain disruptions. This might only raise costs a few percent. Yet for some firms that were just barely keeping their heads above water with the tightened monetary policy, and the tariffs, and now spikes in energy prices, this will be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
- 7mo ago
- gotwaz 7mo agoIts a good thing. Good opportunity to push electrification of everything and ditch oil for good. I hope it keeps pushing oil prices up.
- PearlRiver 7mo agoFriendly reminder that every member of Trump's cabinet is a multi millionaire. This is just a game for them and there are no consequences for losing.