4 ms·

Can't blame you for not trusting OpenAI, but it seems to me they would gain very little from fucking up uv (or more precisely doing things that have a side effe

by dcre 7mo ago

Can't blame you for not trusting OpenAI, but it seems to me they would gain very little from fucking up uv (or more precisely doing things that have a side effect of fucking up uv), and they have tons of incentive to cultivate developer good will. Better to think of buying and supporting a project like this as a very cheap way to make developers think they're not so bad.

throwaway5752 7mo ago
No they don't have incentive to cultivate developer goodwill. They are monetizing replacing developers everywhere. That is the trillion-dollar valuation. They have the opposite incentive.
- dcre 7mo ago
  They are not. A very large proportion of their revenue comes from developers. A large proportion of their marketing and product work is aimed at developers. You have to work really hard to not see this. Just look at what Altman and Brockman tweet about. https://xcancel.com/gdb https://xcancel.com/gdb https://xcancel.com/sama/ https://xcancel.com/sama/
  - throwaway5752 7mo ago
    All the various APM companies are implementing "Assign to agent" flows. The various foundation model providers will be satisfied getting a subscription for 10% of total comp of a developer, instead of pocketing 60% of the total comp completely replacing them? The only thing that could prevent this is lack of ability to execute, like how Uber wanted to replace drivers with FSD vehicles.
    - dcre 7mo ago
      It's not about what they wish would happen, it's about what they think will happen. In my view they are acting precisely like they believe they will be making a proportion of developer pay by making them more productive rather than replacing developers. I think they understand that the alternative doesn't really work out for them or anyone. Even if they believe that their systems will eventually tank employment and replace developers rather than augment meant, the fate of Astral doesn't matter at all in that scenario because a) nobody has a job, and b) you can build your own uv replacement for $20.
      - dgb23 7mo ago
        Could it be that they want developers to use their stuff so they get telemetry and mind share out of it? As a stepping stone for the ultimate goals so to speak?
  - bmitc 7mo ago
    > Just look at what Altman and Brockman tweet about. Those two are pathological liars, so what they write about means very, very little.
marcyb5st 7mo ago
But what happens to the Astral team if OpenAI flops at the IPO or runs out of companies throwing billions at them? This is a bad thing IMHO
- wadim 7mo ago
  It wouldn't be the first project which gets adopted by the community. The license certainly allows for it.
- NewEntryHN 7mo ago
  Nothing worse than what would have happened to the Astral team if they had ran out of funding rounds without an exit...

by dcre 7mo ago

throwaway5752 7mo ago

No they don't have incentive to cultivate developer goodwill. They are monetizing replacing developers everywhere. That is the trillion-dollar valuation. They have the opposite incentive.

dcre 7mo ago
They are not. A very large proportion of their revenue comes from developers. A large proportion of their marketing and product work is aimed at developers. You have to work really hard to not see this. Just look at what Altman and Brockman tweet about. https://xcancel.com/gdb https://xcancel.com/gdb https://xcancel.com/sama/ https://xcancel.com/sama/
- throwaway5752 7mo ago
  All the various APM companies are implementing "Assign to agent" flows. The various foundation model providers will be satisfied getting a subscription for 10% of total comp of a developer, instead of pocketing 60% of the total comp completely replacing them? The only thing that could prevent this is lack of ability to execute, like how Uber wanted to replace drivers with FSD vehicles.
  - dcre 7mo ago
    It's not about what they wish would happen, it's about what they think will happen. In my view they are acting precisely like they believe they will be making a proportion of developer pay by making them more productive rather than replacing developers. I think they understand that the alternative doesn't really work out for them or anyone. Even if they believe that their systems will eventually tank employment and replace developers rather than augment meant, the fate of Astral doesn't matter at all in that scenario because a) nobody has a job, and b) you can build your own uv replacement for $20.
    - dgb23 7mo ago
      Could it be that they want developers to use their stuff so they get telemetry and mind share out of it? As a stepping stone for the ultimate goals so to speak?
- bmitc 7mo ago
  > Just look at what Altman and Brockman tweet about. Those two are pathological liars, so what they write about means very, very little.

marcyb5st 7mo ago

But what happens to the Astral team if OpenAI flops at the IPO or runs out of companies throwing billions at them? This is a bad thing IMHO

wadim 7mo ago
It wouldn't be the first project which gets adopted by the community. The license certainly allows for it.
NewEntryHN 7mo ago
Nothing worse than what would have happened to the Astral team if they had ran out of funding rounds without an exit...