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You're talking about electricity, so I assume your answer is directed to the natural gas fields at Groningen. The EU imports a lot of natural gas. Don't you thi

You're talking about electricity, so I assume your answer is directed to the natural gas fields at Groningen. The EU imports a lot of natural gas. Don't you think it would be better to have a domestic supply? It's better for the environment too. Heck right now, Europe is still burning coal (and worse yet - lignite coal) for electricity. Natural gas would be a huge improvement on that. Note that drilling for oil in the North Sea is a completely different subject, because that's not used for electricity generation, nor is electricity a substitute. EV market share in Europe is still far too low for that to be a conversation for a long time. Your comment is wishful thinking and ignores the current reality of how Europe imports and uses energy. But even if your best case scenario were somehow possible (and it really isn't) there's still money to be made exporting fossil fuels to the developing world. So your assertion "inefficient use of capital to support more fossil exploration" is just flat wrong.

toomuchtodo 6mo ago
No, everything can move to electricity, China is doing it, Europe can too. You are free to your opinion, but the facts and evidence are clear. If you would like an hour of time with an expert from Ember Energy to explain this, happy to pay for that hour of time for you to update your priors and mental model on the topic of Europe's energy transition trajectory. > Note that drilling for oil in the North Sea is a completely different subject, because that's not used for electricity generation, nor is electricity a substitute. EV market share in Europe is still far too low for that to be a conversation for a long time. Europe's EV uptake will speed based on the price of oil increasing and remaining high for the foreseeable future. > But even if your best case scenario were somehow possible (and it really isn't) there's still money to be made exporting fossil fuels to the developing world. So your assertion "inefficient use of capital to support more fossil exploration" is just flat wrong. The developing world is leapfrogging fossil fuels and going straight to solar, batteries, and EVs. What will expensive LNG do to this market? It will force them to renewables and electric mobility faster. Ethopia's uptake of EVs after they banned combustion vehicles is an example of this. Why did they ban combustion vehicles? Because they have no domestic fossil fuel supplies and the import cost was crushing them; their EVs are powered by domestic hydro electricity production. Citations: Surging Gas Prices Reignite EV Interest - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-14/iran-war-reignites-ev-interest-in-us-markets https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-14/iran-war-... | https://archive.today/BkAfR https://archive.today/BkAfR - March 14th, 2026 Global EV sales hit 1.1 million – Europe surges while the US slides - https://electrek.co/2026/03/12/global-ev-sales-hit-1-1-million-europe-surges-while-the-us-slides/ https://electrek.co/2026/03/12/global-ev-sales-hit-1-1-milli... | https://archive.today/nhIbF https://archive.today/nhIbF - March 12th, 2026 EVs Avoided the Use of 2.3M Barrels of Oil per Day in 2025 - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47420092 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47420092 - March 2026 Electric Vehicle Sales Boom as Ethiopia Bans Fossil-Fuel Car Imports - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47068567 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47068567 - February 2026 How we made it: will China be the first electrostate? - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44101275 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44101275 - May 2025 Massive global growth of renewables to 2030 is set to match entire power capacity of major economies today, moving world closer to tripling goal - https://www.iea.org/news/massive-global-growth-of-renewables-to-2030-is-set-to-match-entire-power-capacity-of-major-economies-today-moving-world-closer-to-tripling-goal https://www.iea.org/news/massive-global-growth-of-renewables... - October 9th, 2024 The World Hit ‘Peak’ Gas-Powered Vehicle Sales — in 2017 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-hit-peak-gas-powered-vehicles-as-evs-gain-market-share https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-hit... - January 30th, 2024
- slashdev 6mo ago
  I agree that it can. I won't live to see it, and I hope I live 50 years more. You're living in a fantasy world that doesn't exist. Global consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas all rose in 2025. We've not even peaked yet.[1] [1] https://news.mongabay.com/short-article/2025/12/record-fossil-fuel-emissions-in-2025-despite-renewables-buildout-report-says/ https://news.mongabay.com/short-article/2025/12/record-fossi...
  - toomuchtodo 6mo ago
    I've done my best to educate with facts and citations. Appreciate the discussion regardless. My offer stands to pay for you to talk to a subject matter expert. Edit (to respond to your edit): > Global consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas all rose in 2025. We've not even peaked yet. Do you think global LNG consumption will peak considering a material amount of production has been taken offline for the next five years as of today? If I am an LNG consumer on the global market, am I re-evaluating my options today for the next half decade of energy needs? And we are not even done yet with additional potential attacks on Middle Eastern fossil infrastructure as long as the conflict continues; there are more targets available, and more capacity that could be diminished for the foreseeable future. Oil and gas prices jump after Iran and Israel attack gasfields - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47441351 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47441351 - March 2026 Iran attack wipes out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years, QatarEnergy CEO says- https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2026/03/19/iran-attack-wipes-out-17-of-qatars-lng-capacity-for-up-to-five-years-qatarenergy-ceo-says/ https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2026/03/19/iran-attack-... - March 19th, 2026 From your citation: > Renewable energy continues to expand rapidly, but not fast enough for a total reduction in fossil fuels. Emissions from burning oil are projected to rise by 1% in 2025, while gas emissions are set to increase by 1.3%, and coal by 0.8%. These increases are not material in a world where 1TW/year of solar PV is being deployed. Global solar capacity doubles every three years [!!] at current rates. If that rate holds, without accounting for increases of that rate as more PV manufacturing capacity comes online, it will replace all fossil energy globally (not just fossil electricity, all fossil energy use) in under twenty years when you consider the efficiency gains of not burning fuel for energy. Highlights of the global energy transition in 2025 - https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/highlights-of-the-global-energy-transition-in-2025/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/highlights-of-the-g... - December 17th, 2025 > Solar and wind are now expanding fast enough to meet all new electricity demand, a milestone reached in the first three quarters of 2025. Ember’s analysis published in November shows that these technologies are no longer just catching up; they are outpacing demand growth itself. Together, solar and wind supplied 17.6% of global electricity in the first three quarters of 2025, up from 15.2% over the same period last year, pushing the total share of low-carbon sources to 43%. > For the first time across a sustained period, renewables, including solar, wind, hydro and smaller sources such as geothermal, generated more electricity than coal. At the heart of this shift is solar, whose growth was more than three times larger than any other source of electricity so far in 2025, confirming its role as the dominant force reshaping the global power system. Another analysis showed that the world is set to add 793 GW of renewable capacity in 2025, up 11% from the 717 GW added in 2024. At this pace, only a modest increase in annual additions is needed for the world to stay on track to triple global renewables by 2030. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/installed-solar-pv-capacity https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/installed-solar-pv-capaci... https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-installed-wind-energy-capacity-gigawatts https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-installed-wind... The exponential growth of solar power will change the world - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40746617 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40746617 - June 2024 (66 comments)

toomuchtodo 6mo ago

No, everything can move to electricity, China is doing it, Europe can too. You are free to your opinion, but the facts and evidence are clear. If you would like an hour of time with an expert from Ember Energy to explain this, happy to pay for that hour of time for you to update your priors and mental model on the topic of Europe's energy transition trajectory. > Note that drilling for oil in the North Sea is a completely different subject, because that's not used for electricity generation, nor is electricity a substitute. EV market share in Europe is still far too low for that to be a conversation for a long time. Europe's EV uptake will speed based on the price of oil increasing and remaining high for the foreseeable future. > But even if your best case scenario were somehow possible (and it really isn't) there's still money to be made exporting fossil fuels to the developing world. So your assertion "inefficient use of capital to support more fossil exploration" is just flat wrong. The developing world is leapfrogging fossil fuels and going straight to solar, batteries, and EVs. What will expensive LNG do to this market? It will force them to renewables and electric mobility faster. Ethopia's uptake of EVs after they banned combustion vehicles is an example of this. Why did they ban combustion vehicles? Because they have no domestic fossil fuel supplies and the import cost was crushing them; their EVs are powered by domestic hydro electricity production. Citations: Surging Gas Prices Reignite EV Interest - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-14/iran-war-reignites-ev-interest-in-us-markets https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-14/iran-war-... | https://archive.today/BkAfR https://archive.today/BkAfR - March 14th, 2026 Global EV sales hit 1.1 million – Europe surges while the US slides - https://electrek.co/2026/03/12/global-ev-sales-hit-1-1-million-europe-surges-while-the-us-slides/ https://electrek.co/2026/03/12/global-ev-sales-hit-1-1-milli... | https://archive.today/nhIbF https://archive.today/nhIbF - March 12th, 2026 EVs Avoided the Use of 2.3M Barrels of Oil per Day in 2025 - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47420092 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47420092 - March 2026 Electric Vehicle Sales Boom as Ethiopia Bans Fossil-Fuel Car Imports - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47068567 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47068567 - February 2026 How we made it: will China be the first electrostate? - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44101275 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44101275 - May 2025 Massive global growth of renewables to 2030 is set to match entire power capacity of major economies today, moving world closer to tripling goal - https://www.iea.org/news/massive-global-growth-of-renewables-to-2030-is-set-to-match-entire-power-capacity-of-major-economies-today-moving-world-closer-to-tripling-goal https://www.iea.org/news/massive-global-growth-of-renewables... - October 9th, 2024 The World Hit ‘Peak’ Gas-Powered Vehicle Sales — in 2017 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-hit-peak-gas-powered-vehicles-as-evs-gain-market-share https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-hit... - January 30th, 2024

slashdev 6mo ago
I agree that it can. I won't live to see it, and I hope I live 50 years more. You're living in a fantasy world that doesn't exist. Global consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas all rose in 2025. We've not even peaked yet.[1] [1] https://news.mongabay.com/short-article/2025/12/record-fossil-fuel-emissions-in-2025-despite-renewables-buildout-report-says/ https://news.mongabay.com/short-article/2025/12/record-fossi...
- toomuchtodo 6mo ago
  I've done my best to educate with facts and citations. Appreciate the discussion regardless. My offer stands to pay for you to talk to a subject matter expert. Edit (to respond to your edit): > Global consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas all rose in 2025. We've not even peaked yet. Do you think global LNG consumption will peak considering a material amount of production has been taken offline for the next five years as of today? If I am an LNG consumer on the global market, am I re-evaluating my options today for the next half decade of energy needs? And we are not even done yet with additional potential attacks on Middle Eastern fossil infrastructure as long as the conflict continues; there are more targets available, and more capacity that could be diminished for the foreseeable future. Oil and gas prices jump after Iran and Israel attack gasfields - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47441351 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47441351 - March 2026 Iran attack wipes out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years, QatarEnergy CEO says- https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2026/03/19/iran-attack-wipes-out-17-of-qatars-lng-capacity-for-up-to-five-years-qatarenergy-ceo-says/ https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2026/03/19/iran-attack-... - March 19th, 2026 From your citation: > Renewable energy continues to expand rapidly, but not fast enough for a total reduction in fossil fuels. Emissions from burning oil are projected to rise by 1% in 2025, while gas emissions are set to increase by 1.3%, and coal by 0.8%. These increases are not material in a world where 1TW/year of solar PV is being deployed. Global solar capacity doubles every three years [!!] at current rates. If that rate holds, without accounting for increases of that rate as more PV manufacturing capacity comes online, it will replace all fossil energy globally (not just fossil electricity, all fossil energy use) in under twenty years when you consider the efficiency gains of not burning fuel for energy. Highlights of the global energy transition in 2025 - https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/highlights-of-the-global-energy-transition-in-2025/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/highlights-of-the-g... - December 17th, 2025 > Solar and wind are now expanding fast enough to meet all new electricity demand, a milestone reached in the first three quarters of 2025. Ember’s analysis published in November shows that these technologies are no longer just catching up; they are outpacing demand growth itself. Together, solar and wind supplied 17.6% of global electricity in the first three quarters of 2025, up from 15.2% over the same period last year, pushing the total share of low-carbon sources to 43%. > For the first time across a sustained period, renewables, including solar, wind, hydro and smaller sources such as geothermal, generated more electricity than coal. At the heart of this shift is solar, whose growth was more than three times larger than any other source of electricity so far in 2025, confirming its role as the dominant force reshaping the global power system. Another analysis showed that the world is set to add 793 GW of renewable capacity in 2025, up 11% from the 717 GW added in 2024. At this pace, only a modest increase in annual additions is needed for the world to stay on track to triple global renewables by 2030. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/installed-solar-pv-capacity https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/installed-solar-pv-capaci... https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-installed-wind-energy-capacity-gigawatts https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-installed-wind... The exponential growth of solar power will change the world - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40746617 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40746617 - June 2024 (66 comments)