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I think Europe should resume drilling in the North Sea and Groningen if they have exploitable reserves there. Europe depends on energy imports and that won't ch

I think Europe should resume drilling in the North Sea and Groningen if they have exploitable reserves there. Europe depends on energy imports and that won't change in our lifetimes (I'm in my early forties, so at least in my lifetime.) They should take advantage of whatever resources they have. I'm guessing you think otherwise? Why? Do you think the energy transition will be faster? What makes you think that?

toomuchtodo 7mo ago
It would be an inefficient use of capital to support more fossil exploration considering the deployment rates and cost decline curves of renewables and storage. Ember Energy: European electricity prices and costs - https://ember-energy.org/data/european-electricity-prices-and-costs/ https://ember-energy.org/data/european-electricity-prices-an... (updated daily) Ember Energy: Wind and solar generated more power than fossil fuels in the EU for the first time in 2025 - https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/wind-and-solar-generated-more-power-than-fossil-fuels-in-the-eu-for-the-first-time-in-2025/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/wind-and-solar-gener... - January 22nd, 2026 Bloomberg: How Europe Ditched Russian Fossil Fuels With Spectacular Speed - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-02-21/ukraine-news-europe-ditches-russia-fossil-fuels-with-surprising-speed https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-02-21/ukraine-n... | https://archive.today/yxGp2 https://archive.today/yxGp2 - February 21st, 2023 > But what the past year has shown is that it’s possible to go harder and faster in deploying solar panels and batteries, reducing energy use, and permanently swapping out entrenched sources of fossil fuel. Solar installations across Europe increased by a record 40-gigawatts last year, up 35% compared with 2021, just shy of the most optimistic scenario from researchers at BloombergNEF. That jump was driven primarily by consumers who saw cheap solar panels as a way to cut their own energy bills. It essentially pushed the solar rollout ahead by a few years, hitting a level that will be sustained by EU policies. (Europe has enough wind potential to power the world, their energy constraints are deployment rate of renewables, battery storage, and transmission)
- slashdev 7mo ago
  You're talking about electricity, so I assume your answer is directed to the natural gas fields at Groningen. The EU imports a lot of natural gas. Don't you think it would be better to have a domestic supply? It's better for the environment too. Heck right now, Europe is still burning coal (and worse yet - lignite coal) for electricity. Natural gas would be a huge improvement on that. Note that drilling for oil in the North Sea is a completely different subject, because that's not used for electricity generation, nor is electricity a substitute. EV market share in Europe is still far too low for that to be a conversation for a long time. Your comment is wishful thinking and ignores the current reality of how Europe imports and uses energy. But even if your best case scenario were somehow possible (and it really isn't) there's still money to be made exporting fossil fuels to the developing world. So your assertion "inefficient use of capital to support more fossil exploration" is just flat wrong.
  - toomuchtodo 7mo ago
    No, everything can move to electricity, China is doing it, Europe can too. You are free to your opinion, but the facts and evidence are clear. If you would like an hour of time with an expert from Ember Energy to explain this, happy to pay for that hour of time for you to update your priors and mental model on the topic of Europe's energy transition trajectory. > Note that drilling for oil in the North Sea is a completely different subject, because that's not used for electricity generation, nor is electricity a substitute. EV market share in Europe is still far too low for that to be a conversation for a long time. Europe's EV uptake will speed based on the price of oil increasing and remaining high for the foreseeable future. > But even if your best case scenario were somehow possible (and it really isn't) there's still money to be made exporting fossil fuels to the developing world. So your assertion "inefficient use of capital to support more fossil exploration" is just flat wrong. The developing world is leapfrogging fossil fuels and going straight to solar, batteries, and EVs. What will expensive LNG do to this market? It will force them to renewables and electric mobility faster. Ethopia's uptake of EVs after they banned combustion vehicles is an example of this. Why did they ban combustion vehicles? Because they have no domestic fossil fuel supplies and the import cost was crushing them; their EVs are powered by domestic hydro electricity production. Citations: Surging Gas Prices Reignite EV Interest - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-14/iran-war-reignites-ev-interest-in-us-markets https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-14/iran-war-... | https://archive.today/BkAfR https://archive.today/BkAfR - March 14th, 2026 Global EV sales hit 1.1 million – Europe surges while the US slides - https://electrek.co/2026/03/12/global-ev-sales-hit-1-1-million-europe-surges-while-the-us-slides/ https://electrek.co/2026/03/12/global-ev-sales-hit-1-1-milli... | https://archive.today/nhIbF https://archive.today/nhIbF - March 12th, 2026 EVs Avoided the Use of 2.3M Barrels of Oil per Day in 2025 - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47420092 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47420092 - March 2026 Electric Vehicle Sales Boom as Ethiopia Bans Fossil-Fuel Car Imports - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47068567 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47068567 - February 2026 How we made it: will China be the first electrostate? - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44101275 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44101275 - May 2025 Massive global growth of renewables to 2030 is set to match entire power capacity of major economies today, moving world closer to tripling goal - https://www.iea.org/news/massive-global-growth-of-renewables-to-2030-is-set-to-match-entire-power-capacity-of-major-economies-today-moving-world-closer-to-tripling-goal https://www.iea.org/news/massive-global-growth-of-renewables... - October 9th, 2024 The World Hit ‘Peak’ Gas-Powered Vehicle Sales — in 2017 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-hit-peak-gas-powered-vehicles-as-evs-gain-market-share https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-hit... - January 30th, 2024
Scarblac 7mo ago
Because the continued survival of civilization depends on leaving fossil fuel in the ground. If the transition isn't fast enough then we will have horrible, lethal shortages, but that's still better than the worst climate scenarios.
- slashdev 7mo ago
  That may or may not be true. But it won't stay in the ground as long as there is money to be made by extracting and consuming it. Right now all that's happening is the US is extracting that natural gas, and the middle east extracting that oil, and Europe is importing it. Which pollutes more and costs more. Just develop your domestic supplies. I don't follow your logic.
  - Tostino 7mo ago
    That is because that money is allowed to be made by externalizing the cost to future generations. People hate migrants enough as it is. Climate crisis migrations will make these "little" war migrations seem quaint.
    - slashdev 7mo ago
      I agree, but that's the world we live in.
    - nandomrumber 7mo ago
      > That is because that money is allowed to be made by externalizing the cost to future generations. I don’t understand why you wrote this in response to the comment you replied to. No matter which way you slice it, the UK and Europe using the oil from wells physically closer to them has to be less energy intensive that shipping oil / gas from far away. What bearing does externalising anything have on that fact.
      - Tostino 7mo ago
        Demand isn't static. Economics 101: if Europe taps new wells, global supply increases. Higher supply drives down prices. Lower prices induce more consumption. We wouldn't just be cleanly swapping imported fuel for domestic fuel 1:1; we'd be making it cheaper to burn more fossil fuels globally. The marginal emissions saved on shipping are completely wiped out by the net increase in total carbon burned. The only reason expanding that supply looks like a "win" on a balance sheet today is exactly because the long-term climate cost of burning that newly available fuel is still being passed on to the future.

toomuchtodo 7mo ago

It would be an inefficient use of capital to support more fossil exploration considering the deployment rates and cost decline curves of renewables and storage. Ember Energy: European electricity prices and costs - https://ember-energy.org/data/european-electricity-prices-and-costs/ https://ember-energy.org/data/european-electricity-prices-an... (updated daily) Ember Energy: Wind and solar generated more power than fossil fuels in the EU for the first time in 2025 - https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/wind-and-solar-generated-more-power-than-fossil-fuels-in-the-eu-for-the-first-time-in-2025/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/wind-and-solar-gener... - January 22nd, 2026 Bloomberg: How Europe Ditched Russian Fossil Fuels With Spectacular Speed - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-02-21/ukraine-news-europe-ditches-russia-fossil-fuels-with-surprising-speed https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-02-21/ukraine-n... | https://archive.today/yxGp2 https://archive.today/yxGp2 - February 21st, 2023 > But what the past year has shown is that it’s possible to go harder and faster in deploying solar panels and batteries, reducing energy use, and permanently swapping out entrenched sources of fossil fuel. Solar installations across Europe increased by a record 40-gigawatts last year, up 35% compared with 2021, just shy of the most optimistic scenario from researchers at BloombergNEF. That jump was driven primarily by consumers who saw cheap solar panels as a way to cut their own energy bills. It essentially pushed the solar rollout ahead by a few years, hitting a level that will be sustained by EU policies. (Europe has enough wind potential to power the world, their energy constraints are deployment rate of renewables, battery storage, and transmission)

slashdev 7mo ago
You're talking about electricity, so I assume your answer is directed to the natural gas fields at Groningen. The EU imports a lot of natural gas. Don't you think it would be better to have a domestic supply? It's better for the environment too. Heck right now, Europe is still burning coal (and worse yet - lignite coal) for electricity. Natural gas would be a huge improvement on that. Note that drilling for oil in the North Sea is a completely different subject, because that's not used for electricity generation, nor is electricity a substitute. EV market share in Europe is still far too low for that to be a conversation for a long time. Your comment is wishful thinking and ignores the current reality of how Europe imports and uses energy. But even if your best case scenario were somehow possible (and it really isn't) there's still money to be made exporting fossil fuels to the developing world. So your assertion "inefficient use of capital to support more fossil exploration" is just flat wrong.
- toomuchtodo 7mo ago
  No, everything can move to electricity, China is doing it, Europe can too. You are free to your opinion, but the facts and evidence are clear. If you would like an hour of time with an expert from Ember Energy to explain this, happy to pay for that hour of time for you to update your priors and mental model on the topic of Europe's energy transition trajectory. > Note that drilling for oil in the North Sea is a completely different subject, because that's not used for electricity generation, nor is electricity a substitute. EV market share in Europe is still far too low for that to be a conversation for a long time. Europe's EV uptake will speed based on the price of oil increasing and remaining high for the foreseeable future. > But even if your best case scenario were somehow possible (and it really isn't) there's still money to be made exporting fossil fuels to the developing world. So your assertion "inefficient use of capital to support more fossil exploration" is just flat wrong. The developing world is leapfrogging fossil fuels and going straight to solar, batteries, and EVs. What will expensive LNG do to this market? It will force them to renewables and electric mobility faster. Ethopia's uptake of EVs after they banned combustion vehicles is an example of this. Why did they ban combustion vehicles? Because they have no domestic fossil fuel supplies and the import cost was crushing them; their EVs are powered by domestic hydro electricity production. Citations: Surging Gas Prices Reignite EV Interest - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-14/iran-war-reignites-ev-interest-in-us-markets https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-14/iran-war-... | https://archive.today/BkAfR https://archive.today/BkAfR - March 14th, 2026 Global EV sales hit 1.1 million – Europe surges while the US slides - https://electrek.co/2026/03/12/global-ev-sales-hit-1-1-million-europe-surges-while-the-us-slides/ https://electrek.co/2026/03/12/global-ev-sales-hit-1-1-milli... | https://archive.today/nhIbF https://archive.today/nhIbF - March 12th, 2026 EVs Avoided the Use of 2.3M Barrels of Oil per Day in 2025 - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47420092 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47420092 - March 2026 Electric Vehicle Sales Boom as Ethiopia Bans Fossil-Fuel Car Imports - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47068567 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47068567 - February 2026 How we made it: will China be the first electrostate? - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44101275 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44101275 - May 2025 Massive global growth of renewables to 2030 is set to match entire power capacity of major economies today, moving world closer to tripling goal - https://www.iea.org/news/massive-global-growth-of-renewables-to-2030-is-set-to-match-entire-power-capacity-of-major-economies-today-moving-world-closer-to-tripling-goal https://www.iea.org/news/massive-global-growth-of-renewables... - October 9th, 2024 The World Hit ‘Peak’ Gas-Powered Vehicle Sales — in 2017 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-hit-peak-gas-powered-vehicles-as-evs-gain-market-share https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/world-hit... - January 30th, 2024

Scarblac 7mo ago

Because the continued survival of civilization depends on leaving fossil fuel in the ground. If the transition isn't fast enough then we will have horrible, lethal shortages, but that's still better than the worst climate scenarios.

slashdev 7mo ago
That may or may not be true. But it won't stay in the ground as long as there is money to be made by extracting and consuming it. Right now all that's happening is the US is extracting that natural gas, and the middle east extracting that oil, and Europe is importing it. Which pollutes more and costs more. Just develop your domestic supplies. I don't follow your logic.
- Tostino 7mo ago
  That is because that money is allowed to be made by externalizing the cost to future generations. People hate migrants enough as it is. Climate crisis migrations will make these "little" war migrations seem quaint.
  - slashdev 7mo ago
    I agree, but that's the world we live in.
  - nandomrumber 7mo ago
    > That is because that money is allowed to be made by externalizing the cost to future generations. I don’t understand why you wrote this in response to the comment you replied to. No matter which way you slice it, the UK and Europe using the oil from wells physically closer to them has to be less energy intensive that shipping oil / gas from far away. What bearing does externalising anything have on that fact.
    - Tostino 7mo ago
      Demand isn't static. Economics 101: if Europe taps new wells, global supply increases. Higher supply drives down prices. Lower prices induce more consumption. We wouldn't just be cleanly swapping imported fuel for domestic fuel 1:1; we'd be making it cheaper to burn more fossil fuels globally. The marginal emissions saved on shipping are completely wiped out by the net increase in total carbon burned. The only reason expanding that supply looks like a "win" on a balance sheet today is exactly because the long-term climate cost of burning that newly available fuel is still being passed on to the future.