5 ms·

I think there is a pretty good chance US is in the late empire phase. This is not about a single President or party, or even single geopolitical event/developme

I think there is a pretty good chance US is in the late empire phase. This is not about a single President or party, or even single geopolitical event/development.

iso1631 7mo ago
> This is not about a single President or party I've seen roughly two types of American commentators over the last year. The ones that cheer this stuff going on, which HN has plenty of, and the ones that think "come the midterms/2028/impeachment everything will go back to normal" The latter are massively mistaken, it would take decades for the US to rebuild its standing in the eyes of the world, and there is no evidence that it even wants to. Trump is a symptom of what America truly is, not the cause.
- tartuffe78 7mo ago
  He is also a singular political figure. I don't think things will go back to normal, but they won't stay the way there are now.
  - iso1631 7mo ago
    If it wasn't Trump it would be someone else. There are very few people in history that are that pivotal individually. Had Franz Ferdinand not been shot, something else would have sparked WW1. Had Hitler not existed, then someone else would have emerged. Maybe Churchill was more of a pivot than most, had the UK gone for Hastings after Chamberlain then perhaps the UK would have sued for peace, allowing Germany to fully concentrate on Russia, but it's still a stretch to have Germany ultimately prevailing over Stalin. Had the US not won independence in 1776 (which is unlikely to be the sole cause of a single person), it would have been gained anyway, just like the other new world colonies from Canada to Brazil. The conditions that exist are far bigger than one man
- rntksi 7mo ago
  I think Naval is right when he was making the observation that history has alternated by being determined by either individuals (think Genghis Khan, Napoleon) or larger forces at play (think socio-economic reasoning to many historical events). In this, I would say Trump is Trump (the individual) making his moves that very much go against the larger forces at play that was "business as usual". So equating him to a symptom of America is true in the sense that sooner or later America was bound to have someone like him deviate the course of history, and I also believe post-Trump America is not going to reverse course.
  - mongol 7mo ago
    Neither Genghis Khan nor Napoleon were democratically elected. The fact that Trump was makes it harder to see him as the root of the problem. He may have been a catalyst, but the root cause is something else.
- tastyface 7mo ago
  I haven't seen almost anyone suggest that everything will go back to normal post-2028? Every Democrat I know is expecting a painful and protracted fight for the soul of the country.
Tadpole9181 7mo ago
I'm sorry, this is just Republican apologetics. This is about a single party. How in the world could you possibly suggest otherwise? I'd love to hear how Biden, Obama, or Clinton got us into forever wars. Or how they threatened allies. Or how they destroyed our trade or deal-making reputation. Where are the Democrat newscasters saying we should invade Canada? The figure heads calling for internment camps? Are we all affected? Sure. Does everybody in the world view us through the lens of our worst (people/behavior)? Of course. But it IS about a single party on every. single. issue. If the Democrats were to regain control and we had public trials for all involved for war crimes, constitutional violations, etc, it would do a lot to fix the damage. Not pretending it would all go away, but actually holding the one party accountable would help because everyone on the planet knows who is responsible.
- nickdothutton 7mo ago
  The Iran war has demonstrated the US cannot adequately defend its allies in the region, regardless of bases, whose existence was predicated on them having that capability. No? All the current conflict has done is make obvious that reality.
  - jacquesm 7mo ago
    It is interesting how many people seem to have failed to notice this absolutely crucial detail. Suddenly US bases are no longer seen as an asset but as an immediate risk.
    - nickdothutton 7mo ago
      This is what specifically caused me to make the late stage empire comment. When the flip comes, you know you are in that phase. Speaking as a Brit. Other indicators are loss of reserve currency status, inward looking elite factions (can be of any party, it is not a partisan matter), and a few other things. One might have said “changed from creditor to debtor” but almost everyone is these days!
      - 7mo ago
batiudrami 7mo ago
It is interesting to me, as an Australian, that it almost seems like Osama Bin Laden won. The fall of the US commenced when they let the fear in, and that was September 2001.
- nickdothutton 7mo ago
  I occasionally "joke" that it was 9-11 where we shifted timelines to the alternate universe. 1 minute Fukuyama announces the end of history and our future will consist of abundance and TV and shopping, the next...

I think there is a pretty good chance US is in the late empire phase. This is not about a single President or party, or even single geopolitical event/development.

iso1631 7mo ago

> This is not about a single President or party I've seen roughly two types of American commentators over the last year. The ones that cheer this stuff going on, which HN has plenty of, and the ones that think "come the midterms/2028/impeachment everything will go back to normal" The latter are massively mistaken, it would take decades for the US to rebuild its standing in the eyes of the world, and there is no evidence that it even wants to. Trump is a symptom of what America truly is, not the cause.

tartuffe78 7mo ago
He is also a singular political figure. I don't think things will go back to normal, but they won't stay the way there are now.
- iso1631 7mo ago
  If it wasn't Trump it would be someone else. There are very few people in history that are that pivotal individually. Had Franz Ferdinand not been shot, something else would have sparked WW1. Had Hitler not existed, then someone else would have emerged. Maybe Churchill was more of a pivot than most, had the UK gone for Hastings after Chamberlain then perhaps the UK would have sued for peace, allowing Germany to fully concentrate on Russia, but it's still a stretch to have Germany ultimately prevailing over Stalin. Had the US not won independence in 1776 (which is unlikely to be the sole cause of a single person), it would have been gained anyway, just like the other new world colonies from Canada to Brazil. The conditions that exist are far bigger than one man
rntksi 7mo ago
I think Naval is right when he was making the observation that history has alternated by being determined by either individuals (think Genghis Khan, Napoleon) or larger forces at play (think socio-economic reasoning to many historical events). In this, I would say Trump is Trump (the individual) making his moves that very much go against the larger forces at play that was "business as usual". So equating him to a symptom of America is true in the sense that sooner or later America was bound to have someone like him deviate the course of history, and I also believe post-Trump America is not going to reverse course.
- mongol 7mo ago
  Neither Genghis Khan nor Napoleon were democratically elected. The fact that Trump was makes it harder to see him as the root of the problem. He may have been a catalyst, but the root cause is something else.
tastyface 7mo ago
I haven't seen almost anyone suggest that everything will go back to normal post-2028? Every Democrat I know is expecting a painful and protracted fight for the soul of the country.

Tadpole9181 7mo ago

I'm sorry, this is just Republican apologetics. This is about a single party. How in the world could you possibly suggest otherwise? I'd love to hear how Biden, Obama, or Clinton got us into forever wars. Or how they threatened allies. Or how they destroyed our trade or deal-making reputation. Where are the Democrat newscasters saying we should invade Canada? The figure heads calling for internment camps? Are we all affected? Sure. Does everybody in the world view us through the lens of our worst (people/behavior)? Of course. But it IS about a single party on every. single. issue. If the Democrats were to regain control and we had public trials for all involved for war crimes, constitutional violations, etc, it would do a lot to fix the damage. Not pretending it would all go away, but actually holding the one party accountable would help because everyone on the planet knows who is responsible.

nickdothutton 7mo ago
The Iran war has demonstrated the US cannot adequately defend its allies in the region, regardless of bases, whose existence was predicated on them having that capability. No? All the current conflict has done is make obvious that reality.
- jacquesm 7mo ago
  It is interesting how many people seem to have failed to notice this absolutely crucial detail. Suddenly US bases are no longer seen as an asset but as an immediate risk.
  - nickdothutton 7mo ago
    This is what specifically caused me to make the late stage empire comment. When the flip comes, you know you are in that phase. Speaking as a Brit. Other indicators are loss of reserve currency status, inward looking elite factions (can be of any party, it is not a partisan matter), and a few other things. One might have said “changed from creditor to debtor” but almost everyone is these days!
    - 7mo ago

batiudrami 7mo ago

It is interesting to me, as an Australian, that it almost seems like Osama Bin Laden won. The fall of the US commenced when they let the fear in, and that was September 2001.

nickdothutton 7mo ago
I occasionally "joke" that it was 9-11 where we shifted timelines to the alternate universe. 1 minute Fukuyama announces the end of history and our future will consist of abundance and TV and shopping, the next...