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> Wisdom of the crowd I checked Polymarket towards the end of February for the odds of US bombing Iran and they were vanishingly low. IIRC most bets were aimin
by sph 8mo ago
> Wisdom of the crowd
I checked Polymarket towards the end of February for the odds of US bombing Iran and they were vanishingly low. IIRC most bets were aiming for summer 2026. YMMV.
- gosub100 8mo agoThere's a prisoners execution paradox here. If PM said there's a 95% chance, then Iran knows that too, and can prepare. Making them a worse target.