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I would expect the development of Austin to continue until market equilibrium and then pause. Decreasing margin does not mean equilibrium. Obviously austin is

by pclowes 7mo ago

I would expect the development of Austin to continue until market equilibrium and then pause. Decreasing margin does not mean equilibrium. Obviously austin is not at equilibrium because we still have price data on developer activity and that would be near zero if developers couldn’t make returns given risk etc. I guess I don’t see where we disagree?

estearum 7mo ago
I mean... that is pretty much what we're seeing: Austin new housing starts (approx per month): 2019: 1416 2020: 1504 2021: 1495 2022: 2083 2023: 1415 2024: 916 2025: 900 2026: 481 The problem here is that the market obviously does not have perfect information, limited mechanisms to coordinate, and significant lead time. It seems pretty much baked in at this point that many of the projects currently underway will complete into a negative market and (assuming Austin remains somewhat desirable) a whole lot of developers will be wiped out. This will stop development until prices rise again, probably back to a level where housing is quite expensive again relative to local wages.