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OTOH, it really looks like Toyota is Goldilocks. Most companies invested too much too early and had to write off a substantial amount, but Toyota is rolling i

OTOH, it really looks like Toyota is Goldilocks. Most companies invested too much too early and had to write off a substantial amount, but Toyota is rolling into 2027 with a small but nice selection of EV's. Over 25% of vehicles sold world-wide were electric in 2025, and that percentage is steadily increasing. So VW & Ford were "too hot", Honda is looking like "too cold" and Toyota might be the "just right" of the three bears.

neogodless 8mo ago
Where does that leave GM?
- sanex 8mo ago
  Quietly making some of the highest rated EVs right now.
  - bryanlarsen 8mo ago
    After writing off $7B. So they were early. But likely better early than late. VW is an even better example. They wrote off many billions, but they're now the biggest seller of EV's in Europe.
slfnflctd 8mo ago
Observers and technologists have also consistently failed to appreciate the continuing value proposition of hybrids, and Toyota makes some of the best, top selling models.
- bityard 8mo ago
  Hybrids are just amazing and SHOULD have mostly replaced ICE-only a long time ago. I'm going to cry the day the midwestern winter road salt takes my Prius away from me.
- bryanlarsen 8mo ago
  My biggest peeve with hybrids is that it gives consumers the mistaken impression that they're going to have to replace the batteries in their EV. Most hybrids aren't liquid-cooled (although that is changing), and the smaller size means that a hybrid puts a lot more cycles per mile on the battery than an EV does. Which in practice means that a hybrid battery lasts about 100,000 miles whereas an EV lasts about 250,000 miles. A Prius is an amazing car; a 300,000 mile Prius is often still in good shape and worth the expense to replace the battery in. Which means you might put 3 batteries in a Prius and then look at how expensive it would be to replace the battery in an EV 3 times and choke. But very few people are going to spend the significant dollars it costs to replace the battery in a 250,000 mile Tesla so in practice that's an expense you'll never have.
  - rtpg 8mo ago
    ...are there 300k mile Priuses out on the road and being used?
    - bryanlarsen 8mo ago
      I've been in several Prius taxis with more than 300K on the odometer.
    - defrost 8mo ago
      The indications from several articles is Yes. eg, from one: We clarified that the standard mileage for the Toyota Prius Prime is up to 500,000 miles, but we would place the high mileage point for the car at around 300,000 miles. Once the vehicle passes this point in its lifespan, it’s far more likely to experience issues that cost ample money to keep in excellent condition. How Long Do Toyota Prius Primes Last? The Scoop on Vehicle Lifespan (2024) https://www.copilotsearch.com/posts/how-long-do-toyota-prius-primes-last/ https://www.copilotsearch.com/posts/how-long-do-toyota-prius...
    - kjkjadksj 8mo ago
      Oh yeah. There is a famous one in austrian taxi service with over 600k miles. https://www.electricbike.com/the-curious-case-of-the-600000-mile-hybrid-electric-taxi/ https://www.electricbike.com/the-curious-case-of-the-600000-...
- odo1242 8mo ago
  Hybrids are kinda the worst of both worlds though - you have all of the disadvantages of a internal combustion engine (maintenance costs, carbon footprint, fuel dependence), and all the disadvantages of a battery (car is more expensive, battery can die) and the only advantage is range.
scuff3d 8mo ago
But it's not really increasing anymore, and the increase has been almost entirely tied to subsidies. When Germany and America pulled back on EV subsidies, sales dropped significantly. The adoption curve hasn't been nearly as steep as predicted, and the political landscape is unstable. Other manufacturers are also pulling back on their EV investments. I'm not saying Honda isn't overdoing it, but a retreat from EVs isn't surprising.
- bryanlarsen 8mo ago
  > But it's not really increasing anymore EV's are a half trillion dollar market (20 million cars annually, average selling price $25K) that increased by 20% in 2025. That's a massive increase in a massive market. It's not the 50% per annum we were seeing earlier, but 20% of a big number is often more impressive than 50% of a big market.
  - scuff3d 8mo ago
    It's not that simple, some markets are slowing down and others are accelerating. Two of Honda's biggest markets are Japan and the US. The US is cooling on EVs with incentives and regulation changes making adoption less urgent. Japan already has an extremely low adoption rate. So the incentives for Honda to invest heavily just aren't there right now. Other manufacturers are also pulling back. Ford is cutting way back on the Lightning for example.
    - bryanlarsen 8mo ago
      It's too soon to tell on America. In Germany sales pulled back temporarily after the loss of subsidies -- most people who were looking at buying an EV pulled their purchase forward to before the subsidy went away but then after a while growth resumed. 2025 EV sales in Germany without subsidies were higher than 2023 EV sales with subsidies after being down in 2024. I expect the same thing to happen for 2027 US EV sales. In Japan, it's more a matter of not having good domestic options. Japanese people don't buy non-Japanese cars. When the Leaf was selling well world-wide, it sold well in Japan. But it's been a few years since the Leaf sold well anywhere. Now with good Toyota options and spiking gas prices I expect EV's to pick up in Japan. Nowhere is more dependent than Japan on the straight of Hormuz.
gorfian_robot 8mo ago
I recently drove a brand new Toyota EV. It was ... fine. But I wouldn't buy it. Kia/Hyundai make the best EV's for the US right now.
- bryanlarsen 8mo ago
  Doesn't that describe most Toyotas, EV or not? You buy a Toyota because you expect it to last forever (or because it has low running costs because it has great resale value because it lasts forever). You want a Supra to drive much better than fine. But if you're in the market for a Corolla, "fine" might be better than some of the cars you're comparing against.
  - kvuj 8mo ago
    That used to be the case, but modern Toyotas have a lot of problems with their engines. This doesn't inspire confidence in the brand's overall quality. Add the fact that EVs are a lot simpler, and I don't really see the reasons to pay the Toyota premium. Perhaps less depreciation?
- dzhiurgis 8mo ago
  > Kia/Hyundai make the best EV's for the US right now. They are suffering with just incredibly terrible reliability. Every model was a failure on top of terrible support. It's Rivian and Tesla, and it's not even close for the rest.
partiallypro 8mo ago
Isn't Toyota betting big on the Hybrid EV? To me, at least in the US, this seems like the best medium-term bet. The EV infrastructure just isn't there yet, despite there being a lot of Tesla chargers. Even with that, the charge time, etc are too long to get going again. Hybrid EV seems to resolve this, and eases the customer into an EV future. Current EVs are great for being around town, but a lot of people in the US live 45min to an hour each way just to work, have to get their kids to school or practice in the meantime. It's just added stress thinking about finding a charging station or having time constraints. The biggest issue I think every auto maker needs to solve is cost. The average car payment is insane, with dealership markups it's even worst than it would be otherwise. I'm not sure how we got here on that, to me car interiors are no nicer than they were from 2005ish on. I don't even know what the cost is going into.

neogodless 8mo ago

Where does that leave GM?

sanex 8mo ago
Quietly making some of the highest rated EVs right now.
- bryanlarsen 8mo ago
  After writing off $7B. So they were early. But likely better early than late. VW is an even better example. They wrote off many billions, but they're now the biggest seller of EV's in Europe.

slfnflctd 8mo ago

Observers and technologists have also consistently failed to appreciate the continuing value proposition of hybrids, and Toyota makes some of the best, top selling models.

bityard 8mo ago
Hybrids are just amazing and SHOULD have mostly replaced ICE-only a long time ago. I'm going to cry the day the midwestern winter road salt takes my Prius away from me.
bryanlarsen 8mo ago
My biggest peeve with hybrids is that it gives consumers the mistaken impression that they're going to have to replace the batteries in their EV. Most hybrids aren't liquid-cooled (although that is changing), and the smaller size means that a hybrid puts a lot more cycles per mile on the battery than an EV does. Which in practice means that a hybrid battery lasts about 100,000 miles whereas an EV lasts about 250,000 miles. A Prius is an amazing car; a 300,000 mile Prius is often still in good shape and worth the expense to replace the battery in. Which means you might put 3 batteries in a Prius and then look at how expensive it would be to replace the battery in an EV 3 times and choke. But very few people are going to spend the significant dollars it costs to replace the battery in a 250,000 mile Tesla so in practice that's an expense you'll never have.
- rtpg 8mo ago
  ...are there 300k mile Priuses out on the road and being used?
  - bryanlarsen 8mo ago
    I've been in several Prius taxis with more than 300K on the odometer.
  - defrost 8mo ago
    The indications from several articles is Yes. eg, from one: We clarified that the standard mileage for the Toyota Prius Prime is up to 500,000 miles, but we would place the high mileage point for the car at around 300,000 miles. Once the vehicle passes this point in its lifespan, it’s far more likely to experience issues that cost ample money to keep in excellent condition. How Long Do Toyota Prius Primes Last? The Scoop on Vehicle Lifespan (2024) https://www.copilotsearch.com/posts/how-long-do-toyota-prius-primes-last/ https://www.copilotsearch.com/posts/how-long-do-toyota-prius...
  - kjkjadksj 8mo ago
    Oh yeah. There is a famous one in austrian taxi service with over 600k miles. https://www.electricbike.com/the-curious-case-of-the-600000-mile-hybrid-electric-taxi/ https://www.electricbike.com/the-curious-case-of-the-600000-...
odo1242 8mo ago
Hybrids are kinda the worst of both worlds though - you have all of the disadvantages of a internal combustion engine (maintenance costs, carbon footprint, fuel dependence), and all the disadvantages of a battery (car is more expensive, battery can die) and the only advantage is range.

scuff3d 8mo ago

But it's not really increasing anymore, and the increase has been almost entirely tied to subsidies. When Germany and America pulled back on EV subsidies, sales dropped significantly. The adoption curve hasn't been nearly as steep as predicted, and the political landscape is unstable. Other manufacturers are also pulling back on their EV investments. I'm not saying Honda isn't overdoing it, but a retreat from EVs isn't surprising.

bryanlarsen 8mo ago
> But it's not really increasing anymore EV's are a half trillion dollar market (20 million cars annually, average selling price $25K) that increased by 20% in 2025. That's a massive increase in a massive market. It's not the 50% per annum we were seeing earlier, but 20% of a big number is often more impressive than 50% of a big market.
- scuff3d 8mo ago
  It's not that simple, some markets are slowing down and others are accelerating. Two of Honda's biggest markets are Japan and the US. The US is cooling on EVs with incentives and regulation changes making adoption less urgent. Japan already has an extremely low adoption rate. So the incentives for Honda to invest heavily just aren't there right now. Other manufacturers are also pulling back. Ford is cutting way back on the Lightning for example.
  - bryanlarsen 8mo ago
    It's too soon to tell on America. In Germany sales pulled back temporarily after the loss of subsidies -- most people who were looking at buying an EV pulled their purchase forward to before the subsidy went away but then after a while growth resumed. 2025 EV sales in Germany without subsidies were higher than 2023 EV sales with subsidies after being down in 2024. I expect the same thing to happen for 2027 US EV sales. In Japan, it's more a matter of not having good domestic options. Japanese people don't buy non-Japanese cars. When the Leaf was selling well world-wide, it sold well in Japan. But it's been a few years since the Leaf sold well anywhere. Now with good Toyota options and spiking gas prices I expect EV's to pick up in Japan. Nowhere is more dependent than Japan on the straight of Hormuz.

gorfian_robot 8mo ago

I recently drove a brand new Toyota EV. It was ... fine. But I wouldn't buy it. Kia/Hyundai make the best EV's for the US right now.

bryanlarsen 8mo ago
Doesn't that describe most Toyotas, EV or not? You buy a Toyota because you expect it to last forever (or because it has low running costs because it has great resale value because it lasts forever). You want a Supra to drive much better than fine. But if you're in the market for a Corolla, "fine" might be better than some of the cars you're comparing against.
- kvuj 8mo ago
  That used to be the case, but modern Toyotas have a lot of problems with their engines. This doesn't inspire confidence in the brand's overall quality. Add the fact that EVs are a lot simpler, and I don't really see the reasons to pay the Toyota premium. Perhaps less depreciation?
dzhiurgis 8mo ago
> Kia/Hyundai make the best EV's for the US right now. They are suffering with just incredibly terrible reliability. Every model was a failure on top of terrible support. It's Rivian and Tesla, and it's not even close for the rest.

partiallypro 8mo ago

Isn't Toyota betting big on the Hybrid EV? To me, at least in the US, this seems like the best medium-term bet. The EV infrastructure just isn't there yet, despite there being a lot of Tesla chargers. Even with that, the charge time, etc are too long to get going again. Hybrid EV seems to resolve this, and eases the customer into an EV future. Current EVs are great for being around town, but a lot of people in the US live 45min to an hour each way just to work, have to get their kids to school or practice in the meantime. It's just added stress thinking about finding a charging station or having time constraints. The biggest issue I think every auto maker needs to solve is cost. The average car payment is insane, with dealership markups it's even worst than it would be otherwise. I'm not sure how we got here on that, to me car interiors are no nicer than they were from 2005ish on. I don't even know what the cost is going into.