3 ms·

Given the Greenland stuff, isn't it within EU and UK's interests to keep the US occupied in Iran?

hermitcrab 7mo ago
Possibly. However: - Europe gets a lot of it's oil through the Straits of Hormuz. - Xi might see this as his opportunity to attack Taiwan. It is just a huge mess in which everyone loses. Except perhaps Netanyahu and Trump, personally.
- solstice 7mo ago
  If we finally get the broad roll-out of renewable energy out of this, that would be a silver lining to this horrible mess. I hope it is a "Things need to get worse to get better" type of situation.
- blitzar 7mo ago
  > Europe gets a lot of it's oil through the Straits of Hormuz. 20 mb/d, around 25% world seaborne oil trade, transits the Strait – 80% destined for Asia. 4%, of the region’s crude flows are routed into Europe LNG - In 2025, almost 90% of the total volumes exported via the Strait of Hormuz was destined to the Asian market, while the share of Europe was just over 10%. Volume of oil (or LNG) isnt really the problem for the western hemisphere, its the doubling of price.
  - hermitcrab 7mo ago
    I found this: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-oil-trade-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-country/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-oil-trade-through-t... 3.8% is a lot less than the news reports were implying. But, as you say, it will drive up the global price.
t-3 7mo ago
It's more complex, especially when considering Ukraine and Israel's appetite for weapons and ordnance. Every missile or drone canceled or delayed or rerouted to support Israel is one less Ukraine has to defend itself. Given Europe's investment and interest in the war, they should be very nervous about a prolonged or intensified conflict in the middle east that harms EU geostrategy.
- throw0101c 7mo ago
  > It's more complex, especially when considering Ukraine and Israel's appetite for weapons and ordnance. Every missile or drone canceled or delayed or rerouted to support Israel is one less Ukraine has to defend itself. Except how much is the US/Trump actually helping Ukraine nowadays? How much are they providing? And how dependent on the US does Ukraine actually want to be given Trump's fandom of Putin?
asplake 7mo ago
And to ease oil prices, the US takes its already limited pressure off Russia meanwhile. Given the Ukraine situation, I can't see how that helps EU and UK.

Possibly. However: - Europe gets a lot of it's oil through the Straits of Hormuz. - Xi might see this as his opportunity to attack Taiwan. It is just a huge mess in which everyone loses. Except perhaps Netanyahu and Trump, personally.

solstice 7mo ago
If we finally get the broad roll-out of renewable energy out of this, that would be a silver lining to this horrible mess. I hope it is a "Things need to get worse to get better" type of situation.
blitzar 7mo ago
> Europe gets a lot of it's oil through the Straits of Hormuz. 20 mb/d, around 25% world seaborne oil trade, transits the Strait – 80% destined for Asia. 4%, of the region’s crude flows are routed into Europe LNG - In 2025, almost 90% of the total volumes exported via the Strait of Hormuz was destined to the Asian market, while the share of Europe was just over 10%. Volume of oil (or LNG) isnt really the problem for the western hemisphere, its the doubling of price.
- hermitcrab 7mo ago
  I found this: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-oil-trade-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-country/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-oil-trade-through-t... 3.8% is a lot less than the news reports were implying. But, as you say, it will drive up the global price.

t-3 7mo ago

It's more complex, especially when considering Ukraine and Israel's appetite for weapons and ordnance. Every missile or drone canceled or delayed or rerouted to support Israel is one less Ukraine has to defend itself. Given Europe's investment and interest in the war, they should be very nervous about a prolonged or intensified conflict in the middle east that harms EU geostrategy.

throw0101c 7mo ago
> It's more complex, especially when considering Ukraine and Israel's appetite for weapons and ordnance. Every missile or drone canceled or delayed or rerouted to support Israel is one less Ukraine has to defend itself. Except how much is the US/Trump actually helping Ukraine nowadays? How much are they providing? And how dependent on the US does Ukraine actually want to be given Trump's fandom of Putin?

asplake 7mo ago

And to ease oil prices, the US takes its already limited pressure off Russia meanwhile. Given the Ukraine situation, I can't see how that helps EU and UK.