I think the PCs are in decline among lower-income individuals and working class people who don't need to read a lot or write a lot. They were never that popula

I think the PCs are in decline among lower-income individuals and working class people who don't need to read a lot or write a lot. They were never that popular a purchase in the first place, but because they never got deep into the games and computer culture, phone and tablet products are adequate for their needs, and have some advantages. The main advantage is always-on mobile networking, so that sms, twitter, email, facebook, etc. are always available everywhere. It's also a phone and a camera. The clearest evidence I have of this shift is observing coworkers who don't have internet at home, or lack a PC at home. They tend to run a lot more apps on their iphones and android phones. I'd say, typically, a dozen or more. The phone is their computer. They also are considering tablets. Personally, I make data: text, code, graphics, and now videos etc. My PC is my primary platform. My satellite system is my netbook. My smartphone is a distant third. I have maybe eight apps on my two smartphones: This American Life, Facebook, Twitter, GasBuddy, LATimes (just a bookmark really), Google Maps (again, a bookmark), RedLaser, Cut the Rope, and some visual mandala thing. I don't feel like I need a tablet. I'm probably going to get one, because I've been writing toy apps on android... but that's partly for my resume. Tablets are just like video game consoles. They're going to be more popular than general purpose PCs and will be a huge market, for better or worse. The PC made a lot of people smarter. It taught people to control their computers, and even to program them. It created a culture of creativity. It was kind of like buying a car, and then finding there's a set of tools and a small machine shop in the trunk. We lose all of that with tablets. A tablet is like a car with the hood bolted shut, and a gas cap that only lets you fill up at specific gas stations. It's fine for mechanics and the gas stations, but crap for drivers. Mhyrvold's prediction wasn't quite right though. Early demand was not for videophone. It was for sms and twitter and email. Low-bandwidth, immediate services. The killer video app is still video on demand. High costs for data impede some applications. Price was not cheaper by an order of magnitude. It was around half, or a bit more than half. Gaming has been consuming CPU so quickly that it became its own category of computer. Gaming, videophone and phone have only started to work on the internet in the past five years or so. Network latency has been a problem.