You are assuming that votes are randomly distributed, they are not. In fact the majority of votes are fixed (reliable Republican or Democratic votes). Even so

You are assuming that votes are randomly distributed, they are not. In fact the majority of votes are fixed (reliable Republican or Democratic votes). Even so, you really want to consider the 'pain' associated with the unlikely event not the probability of the event itself. The pain associated with the recount within a single state is much less than the pain associated with a recount for the entire country, even if the national recount scenario is less likely (even much less likely).