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> I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting. > Strong regulation and l
by alephnerd 8mo ago
> I think there's a fair point to be made that Polymarket and similar sites are not fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting.
> Strong regulation and legal consequences...
Functionally, you are correct.
But the crux of the issue is Polymarket and Kalshi (YC W19) have successfully argued that they are technically a platform that is democratizing "futures", and thus falls under the CFTC - not gambling.
Nothing will be done to change this. YCombinator (who owns HN) [0] and Sequoia have built a fairly well oiled lobbying muscle with the CFTC and with both the GOP and DNC to maintain this status quo.
It's the same reason both Ro Khanna and Ron DeSantis went to (metaphorically) kiss David Sack's ring back in 2023 at the same donor event XD.
[0] - https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/30/little-tech-startup-washington-00160815 https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/30/little-tech-startup...
- margalabargala 8mo agoWhich is of course a blatant abuse of our legal system, since they are doing nothing different than a casino's roulette or blackjack tables. "Red futures pay out at 2:1!" "Get your future here on whether the dealer's cards are higher than your own!"
- hgomersall 8mo agoWell the real insight here is that most "investing" is gambling.
- Pay08 8mo agoI'd agree with the blackjack comparison, but not roulette. Both "futures betting" and blackjack need skill to be able to win even if luck plays a significant part, as opposed to roulette, which is just pure luck.
- margalabargala 8mo agoRoulette is not pure luck, the amount of skill needed is just significantly higher. https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2023-how-to-beat-roulette-gambler-figures-it-out/ https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2023-how-to-beat-roulette...