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> Obviously this is a horrible use case, and I'm not sure if such websites actually exist or are just rumors. polymarket has an @died tag, which I assume is fo
by masklinn 7mo ago
> Obviously this is a horrible use case, and I'm not sure if such websites actually exist or are just rumors.
polymarket has an @died tag, which I assume is for betting on people's deaths (I never used the site, and it's currently inaccessible) given apparently someone recently made half a mil betting on Khamenei's death, and a cool billion was traded on bets on the timing of the bombing of iran https://www.npr.org/2026/03/01/nx-s1-5731568/polymarket-trade-iran-supreme-leader-killing https://www.npr.org/2026/03/01/nx-s1-5731568/polymarket-trad...
- jacquesm 7mo ago> and a cool billion was traded on bets on the timing of the bombing of iran Oh, trump made some money?
- fwipsy 7mo agonit: The article you linked says half a billion, not a billion. Death markets are banned in the US. Personally, I tend to think of this as a crypto problem, not a prediction market problem.
- sam0x17 7mo agoIt's also fundamentally something you can't really do properly in crypto. You need a central authority to decide if "thing has happened". There's no way to properly incentivize accuracy in cases where the majority of stake benefits from an inaccuracy.