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Conspiracy theory: the missile hit an unpopulated area. Would it have been possible for someone in charge of intercepting incoming missiles to have been in on t

by keeda 7mo ago

Conspiracy theory: the missile hit an unpopulated area. Would it have been possible for someone in charge of intercepting incoming missiles to have been in on this bet? I know these things are automated, because human control would be too slow... but I wonder if there's an angle here. Won't be the first time someone on the inside made money on classified Israeli plans: https://www.timesofisrael.com/two-indicted-for-using-classified-info-to-place-online-bets-on-military-operations/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/two-indicted-for-using-classif... Deeper conspiracy theory: could the military actors involved in these wars fund themselves via betting markets? A 14M bet could fund a lot of drones, probably more than the cost of drones required to achieve a certain outcome ;-)

unstyledcontent 7mo ago
I don't know the case of this particular situation, but its certainly plausible that people will make decisions based on trying to secure a certain bet outcome. The prediction markets are clearly not a passive presence...
gus_massa 7mo ago
My unsupported non-conspiracy opinion: A) They notice that it would land in the middle of nowhere and decided to not destroy it. It's better keep the interceptors for one that is going to hit an important target. B) They partially intercepted it, perhaps only broke the motor or a fin, but the explosive head was intact. So instead of going to an important target, it crashed and exploded in the middle of nowhere.
- dlenski 7mo ago
  (A) is extremely plausible. It is well-known that Iron Dome specifically avoided targeting rockets for interception when they not going to land in areas with people or infrastructure. The main reason for this is because the interceptors are very scarce and costly.
null_deref 7mo ago
Not a conspiracy theory, IDF official policy is to not use interceptors when the missile is confirmed by calculations to hit unpopulated areas. (This calculation does not work for every type of missile or on every occasion)

by keeda 7mo ago

unstyledcontent 7mo ago

I don't know the case of this particular situation, but its certainly plausible that people will make decisions based on trying to secure a certain bet outcome. The prediction markets are clearly not a passive presence...

gus_massa 7mo ago

My unsupported non-conspiracy opinion: A) They notice that it would land in the middle of nowhere and decided to not destroy it. It's better keep the interceptors for one that is going to hit an important target. B) They partially intercepted it, perhaps only broke the motor or a fin, but the explosive head was intact. So instead of going to an important target, it crashed and exploded in the middle of nowhere.

dlenski 7mo ago
(A) is extremely plausible. It is well-known that Iron Dome specifically avoided targeting rockets for interception when they not going to land in areas with people or infrastructure. The main reason for this is because the interceptors are very scarce and costly.

null_deref 7mo ago

Not a conspiracy theory, IDF official policy is to not use interceptors when the missile is confirmed by calculations to hit unpopulated areas. (This calculation does not work for every type of missile or on every occasion)