3 ms·

When is the world population expected to decline? Or are you talking about a specific country?

pfdietz 7mo ago
I'm talking about the entire world. Almost everywhere, the total fertility rate is well below replacement (which is around 2.1). UN estimates that say global population will peak around 2084; they assume global TFR increases back to 1.6, but there is no evidence for this assumption, so global population will likely peak sooner. Every first world country will be in population decline by 2050; some already are. There's something about global civilization that's acting like a kind of human pesticide. People just aren't having kids, and this is getting worse, not better.
- projektfu 7mo ago
  So it seems there is a median projection of mild decline way in the future. There are also reasonably probable scenarios that show no decline, or more precipitous decline. However, they generally agree that there will be at least 1 billion more people in the world, most likely 2 billion, and possibly more. What is the real risk of the Earth eventually going back toward having 8 billion people after reaching 10 billion? Why is this "the exponential process one should be most concerned about today"?
  - pfdietz 7mo ago
    The real risk is the TFR never rises and population drops until complex society cannot be maintained. Or perhaps some weird minority with higher TFR takes over the world, what I call the "Amish Scenario".
    - projektfu 7mo ago
      Are you talking mainly about demographics? Like not enough working age people and too many older people?
      - pfdietz 7mo ago
        Yes, and also that if the population becomes small enough it becomes impossible to sustain an industrial society due to lack of scale.
        projektfu 7mo ago
        Isn't most of industrial society really just trying to deal with the problems of having to sustain so many people?
whimsicalism 7mo ago
about 50-60 years iirc
layer8 7mo ago
Before the end of the century: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_population_projections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_population_projections

I'm talking about the entire world. Almost everywhere, the total fertility rate is well below replacement (which is around 2.1). UN estimates that say global population will peak around 2084; they assume global TFR increases back to 1.6, but there is no evidence for this assumption, so global population will likely peak sooner. Every first world country will be in population decline by 2050; some already are. There's something about global civilization that's acting like a kind of human pesticide. People just aren't having kids, and this is getting worse, not better.

projektfu 7mo ago
So it seems there is a median projection of mild decline way in the future. There are also reasonably probable scenarios that show no decline, or more precipitous decline. However, they generally agree that there will be at least 1 billion more people in the world, most likely 2 billion, and possibly more. What is the real risk of the Earth eventually going back toward having 8 billion people after reaching 10 billion? Why is this "the exponential process one should be most concerned about today"?
- pfdietz 7mo ago
  The real risk is the TFR never rises and population drops until complex society cannot be maintained. Or perhaps some weird minority with higher TFR takes over the world, what I call the "Amish Scenario".
  - projektfu 7mo ago
    Are you talking mainly about demographics? Like not enough working age people and too many older people?
    - pfdietz 7mo ago
      Yes, and also that if the population becomes small enough it becomes impossible to sustain an industrial society due to lack of scale.
      - projektfu 7mo ago
        Isn't most of industrial society really just trying to deal with the problems of having to sustain so many people?

whimsicalism 7mo ago

about 50-60 years iirc

layer8 7mo ago

Before the end of the century: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_population_projections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_population_projections