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I don't see a world where a motivated soul can build a business from a laptop and a token service as a problem. I see it as opportunity. I feel similarly about

I don't see a world where a motivated soul can build a business from a laptop and a token service as a problem. I see it as opportunity. I feel similarly about Hollywood and the creation of media. We're not there in either case yet, but we will be. That's pretty clear. and when I look at the feudal society that is the entertainment industry here, I don't understand why so many of the serfs are trying to perpetuate it in its current state. And I really don't get why engineers think this technology is going to turn them into serfs unless they let that happen to them themselves. If you can build things, AI coding agents will let you build faster and more for the same amount of effort. I am assuming given the rate of advance of AI coding systems in the past year that there is plenty of improvement to come before this plateaus. I'm sure that will include AI generated systems to do security reviews that will be at human or better level. I've already seen Claude find 20 plus-year-old bugs in my own code. They weren't particularly mission critical but they were there the whole time. I've also seen it do amazingly sophisticated reverse engineering of assembly code only to fall over flat on its face for the simplest tasks.

sarchertech 7mo ago
That depends on how fast that change happens. If 45% of jobs evaporate in a a 5 year period, a complete societal collapse is the likely outcome.
- LogicFailsMe 7mo ago
  Sounds like influencer nonsense to me. Touch grass. If the people are fed and housed, there's no collapse. And if the billionaire class lets them starve, they will finally go through some things just like the aristocracy in France once did. And I think even Peter Thiel is smarter than that. You can feed yourself for <$1000 a year on beans and rice. Not saying you'd enjoy it, but you won't starve. So for ~$40B annually, the billionaires buy themselves revolution insurance. Fantastic value. OTOH if what you're really talking about is the long-term collapse in our ludicrous carbon footprint when we finally run out of fossil fuels and we didn't invest in renewables or nuclear to replace them, well, I'm with you there.
  - bhaak 7mo ago
    Peter Thiel might be smarter than that but I’m not sure about the other ones. Look how Musk treated the Twitter devs or Bezos any of his workers or Trump anybody.
    - LogicFailsMe 7mo ago
      They're all quite intelligent. And they're world class experts in saving their own bacon. Doesn't mean they have any ethics though nor any emotional intelligence after decades of being surrounded by toadies and bootlickers.
      - bhaak 7mo ago
        Smart is not equal to intelligent. You can be very intelligent but have a blind eye on some trivial things. I’m certain that some of them think they are untouchable (or even just are well prepared). We will only see if that’s really true if shit hits the fan.
        LogicFailsMe 7mo ago
        We all know they have bunkers and we roughly know where they are. I got suspended on reddit for threatening harm to others for saying that a couple weeks back. But I don't think we need to raid the bunkers in your TEOTWAWKI scenario, their bodyguards will do all the heavy-lifting once they realize the power balance has shifted. But I also don't expect a SHTF scenario, just a slow creeping enshitification of living standards instead of actually implementing a UBI. And then the survivors who band together to rebuild community instead of chasing some idiotic Mad Max scenario will ultimately prevail. And yes, they are blind to that other option because they wouldn't end up on top.
  - jplusequalt 7mo ago
    >You can feed yourself for <$1000 a year on beans and rice. Not saying you'd enjoy it, but you won't starve. So for ~$40B annually, the billionaires buy themselves revolution insurance. Fantastic value. You are the epitome of the tech bro.
jplusequalt 7mo ago
>If you can build things, AI coding agents will let you build faster and more for the same amount of effort. But you aren't building, your LLM is. Also, you are only thinking about ways as you, a supposed builder, will benefit from this technology. Have you considered how all previous waves of new technologies have introduced downstream effects that have muddied our societies? LLMs are not unique in this regard, and we should be critical on those who are trying to force them into every device we own.
- raw_anon_1111 7mo ago
  Would you say the general contractor for your home isn’t a builder because he didn’t install the toilets?
  - LogicFailsMe 7mo ago
    I think that's precisely his thinking and don't let him know about all those fancy expensive unitasker tools they have that you probably don't that let them do it far more cost effectively and better than the typical homeowner. Won't you think of the jerbs(tm)? And to Captain dystopia, life expectencies were increasing monotonically until COVID. Wonder what changed?
  - jplusequalt 7mo ago
    I think this argument would be make more sense if you were talking about an architect, or the customer. A contractor is still very much putting the house together.
    - raw_anon_1111 7mo ago
      The general contractor is not doing the actual building as much as he is coordinating all of the specialist, making sure things run smoothly and scheduling things based on dependencies and coordinating with the customer. I’ve had two houses built from the ground up
      - 7mo ago

sarchertech 7mo ago

That depends on how fast that change happens. If 45% of jobs evaporate in a a 5 year period, a complete societal collapse is the likely outcome.

LogicFailsMe 7mo ago
Sounds like influencer nonsense to me. Touch grass. If the people are fed and housed, there's no collapse. And if the billionaire class lets them starve, they will finally go through some things just like the aristocracy in France once did. And I think even Peter Thiel is smarter than that. You can feed yourself for <$1000 a year on beans and rice. Not saying you'd enjoy it, but you won't starve. So for ~$40B annually, the billionaires buy themselves revolution insurance. Fantastic value. OTOH if what you're really talking about is the long-term collapse in our ludicrous carbon footprint when we finally run out of fossil fuels and we didn't invest in renewables or nuclear to replace them, well, I'm with you there.
- bhaak 7mo ago
  Peter Thiel might be smarter than that but I’m not sure about the other ones. Look how Musk treated the Twitter devs or Bezos any of his workers or Trump anybody.
  - LogicFailsMe 7mo ago
    They're all quite intelligent. And they're world class experts in saving their own bacon. Doesn't mean they have any ethics though nor any emotional intelligence after decades of being surrounded by toadies and bootlickers.
    - bhaak 7mo ago
      Smart is not equal to intelligent. You can be very intelligent but have a blind eye on some trivial things. I’m certain that some of them think they are untouchable (or even just are well prepared). We will only see if that’s really true if shit hits the fan.
      - LogicFailsMe 7mo ago
        We all know they have bunkers and we roughly know where they are. I got suspended on reddit for threatening harm to others for saying that a couple weeks back. But I don't think we need to raid the bunkers in your TEOTWAWKI scenario, their bodyguards will do all the heavy-lifting once they realize the power balance has shifted. But I also don't expect a SHTF scenario, just a slow creeping enshitification of living standards instead of actually implementing a UBI. And then the survivors who band together to rebuild community instead of chasing some idiotic Mad Max scenario will ultimately prevail. And yes, they are blind to that other option because they wouldn't end up on top.
- jplusequalt 7mo ago
  >You can feed yourself for <$1000 a year on beans and rice. Not saying you'd enjoy it, but you won't starve. So for ~$40B annually, the billionaires buy themselves revolution insurance. Fantastic value. You are the epitome of the tech bro.

jplusequalt 7mo ago

>If you can build things, AI coding agents will let you build faster and more for the same amount of effort. But you aren't building, your LLM is. Also, you are only thinking about ways as you, a supposed builder, will benefit from this technology. Have you considered how all previous waves of new technologies have introduced downstream effects that have muddied our societies? LLMs are not unique in this regard, and we should be critical on those who are trying to force them into every device we own.

raw_anon_1111 7mo ago
Would you say the general contractor for your home isn’t a builder because he didn’t install the toilets?
- LogicFailsMe 7mo ago
  I think that's precisely his thinking and don't let him know about all those fancy expensive unitasker tools they have that you probably don't that let them do it far more cost effectively and better than the typical homeowner. Won't you think of the jerbs(tm)? And to Captain dystopia, life expectencies were increasing monotonically until COVID. Wonder what changed?
- jplusequalt 7mo ago
  I think this argument would be make more sense if you were talking about an architect, or the customer. A contractor is still very much putting the house together.
  - raw_anon_1111 7mo ago
    The general contractor is not doing the actual building as much as he is coordinating all of the specialist, making sure things run smoothly and scheduling things based on dependencies and coordinating with the customer. I’ve had two houses built from the ground up
    - 7mo ago