7 ms·

Yep, far worse than cryptocurrency

by seydor 8mo ago

colesantiago 8mo ago
AI is 1000%+ far worse to be fair. Cryptocurrency (although I hate it) you don't have to participate, so no harm done. Prediction Markets you don't have to participate, so no harm done. With AI, you're participating whether you like it or not. Layoffs, Job displacement, etc. There is no opt out here. Once you're replaced with AI, that is it. At least with cryptocurrency and prediction markets you can make money but it's obviously risky. Ultimately with AI it would just push people to cryptocurrencies and prediction markets.
- UqWBcuFx6NV4r 8mo ago
  Dude, stop.
- mpalmer 8mo ago
  Do you have a positive defense of betting markets? You're spraying defensive whataboutism all over this thread and lowering the discourse. > Prediction Markets you don't have to participate, so no harm done. Harm: https://www.npr.org/2025/11/13/nx-s1-5605561/college-athletes-struggle-with-personal-attacks-on-social-media https://www.npr.org/2025/11/13/nx-s1-5605561/college-athlete... Harm: https://militarnyi.com/en/news/in-november-an-isw-analyst-manipulated-the-situation-in-myrnohrad-to-rig-map-bets/ https://militarnyi.com/en/news/in-november-an-isw-analyst-ma... Harm: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/prediction-markets-merkley-ban-iran.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/prediction-markets-merkley-b...
  - colesantiago 8mo ago
    Why did you send in an article that was completely irrelevant that has nothing to do with prediction markets? What you're showing me is a death threat, which has existed for time in humans. Betting markets of all kinds have existed for a long time and haven't been banned. Banning on particular betting market prediction markets altogether and pushing it underground would make things far worse.
    - zbentley 8mo ago
      Many kinds of betting markets are or were banned all over the world. The sky didn’t fall, and what underground markets existed didn’t lead to huge gang wars or whatever. Given that the article is discussing some of the bad behavior typically associated with dark markets (death threats, extortion, fixing) happening in the light, what makes you think that banning them would make things worse?
    - mpalmer 7mo ago
      What you're showing me is a [war crime], which has existed for time in humans. [Wars] of all kinds have existed for a long time and haven't been banned. Banning on [particular tactics in war] altogether and pushing it underground would make things far worse. Do you see the problem with your logic?
      - colesantiago 7mo ago
        All you're showing are death threats that humans have made. This has happened for all of time, prediction markets or not. There is a difference. Where is the particular and specific assassination market that says: "Date on which this journalist will die"?
        mpalmer 7mo ago
        Sorry you are clearly not engaging in good faith, I'm done
        colesantiago 7mo ago
        You didn't answer my question. Possibly because you're too emotional and raging everywhere and not stopping to think what happens when you think the answer to everything is a complete ban. I'm not the one apologising for my position, you're not completely rational at all since you don't think about the second order effects.
- tasuki 8mo ago
  > Prediction Markets you don't have to participate, so no harm done. What if there's a prediction market on your life? Would you say you're still "not participating, so no harm done" ?
  - colesantiago 7mo ago
    Where is the particular and specific assassination market that says: "Date on which this journalist will die"?
    - tasuki 7mo ago
      I'm not saying there is. I'm saying prediction markets aren't opt-in. Similar with war in general: the moment the decision makers can earn $$$ by betting on something unlikely and then doing it, we have a problem...
- zbentley 8mo ago
  > Prediction Markets you don't have to participate, so no harm done. Did you read the article? It is about a journalist getting death threats from members of a prediction market.
littlecranky67 8mo ago
Wait until they ban prediction markets, then they will re-appear, and you will have to use cryptocurrency :)
- zbentley 8mo ago
  I’d be surprised if there wasn’t already a huge crypto-only dark market where lots of rich criminals bet huge sums. If you’re in that telegram channel, though, I imagine the threats on your life are a lot more credible than the ones discussed in TFA.
- input_sh 8mo ago
  Polymarket already only accepts cryptocurrencies. :) Kalshi is worse in a sense that it also accepts fiat payments.
  - littlecranky67 8mo ago
    Maybe in your country, I just checked from Spain and they do accept paypal and credit cards.
    - input_sh 8mo ago
      In the US specifically, because they weren't allowed to operate in the US until November last year. But... they didn't really try to prevent US users from accessing it, just gently pointed them towards using a VPN and paying with cryptocurrencies. "Coincidentally", they also gave a bullshit advisory position to Trump Jr. and accepted an investment from his firm (1789 Capital), which I'm sure had nothing to do with them getting that licence. But to be "fair and balanced" to Polymarket, Trump Jr. is also Kalshi's "strategic advisor", so there's that!
- seydor 7mo ago
  not easy because you d need a trusted central to settle the outcomes. So far, crypto has only solved the betting part
somelamer567 8mo ago
Cryptocurrency itself was designed to enable crime. Why else would one want an end-run around governments and law-enforcement, unless one were a criminal wanting to prey on others risk-free?
- hollerith 8mo ago
  So, in your mind, making a payment, recieving a payment and holding money in savings are always bad when it goes against any government's law or order?
  - lelanthran 8mo ago
    > So, in your mind, making a payment, recieving a payment and holding money in savings are always bad when it goes against any government's law or order? That's not how I read GP; "Why would you want to do an end-run around the government when using currency?" is different to, well, whatever it is you are saying (I'm not sure I can decipher it well enough - seems to be "using currency is bad when it goes against laws", but I think that's fine too, so not really sure what your message is - maybe you can clarify?) Using legal tender is not a problem. Using barter (which is what using crypocurrencies boils down to) is also not a problem. Lack of reporting your income to the tax authorities is a problem. Most bartering systems are too small to warrant the attention of tax authorities, but cryptocurrencies facilitate bartering at scale, which does warrant interest.
    - hollerith 8mo ago
      Cryptocurrencies enable crime, but they also enable people to circumvent bad policies, and the damage done by bad governmental policies is not small, particularly outside the Western democracies.
      - ForHackernews 8mo ago
        Helping the the wealthy opt-out or circumvent bad policy reduces the incentives to improve government policy. A short term win for individuals becomes a long term loss for society. This is true even in wealthy societies: see private schools, privatized healthcare, private transport.
fnands 8mo ago
At least cryptocurrencies had some nice ideas behind them. Just sad they almost immediately got co-opted by swindlers and criminals.
- Hammershaft 8mo ago
  Prediction markets also have very interesting ideas. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/10/prediction-markets-are-very-accurate.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/10/pr...
  - applfanboysbgon 8mo ago
    Not really. 1. As pointed out in the comments, you can inflate your prediction success rate by predicting things that are 100% to happen. There are plenty of 99.9% bets on Polymarket with degens betting on some 0.01% lottery event trying to strike a jackpot against the odds, and those will inflate the perceived accuracy. 2. All you're really doing is paying insiders to leak information a few hours ahead of time. Insofar as Polymarket is unusually accurate on things that aren't ~100% to happen, it's likely because in the 12-hour-window that post measures is when all of the insiders place their last-minute bets telling you what will happen. This is extremely bad for society. It's wealth redistribution from stupid people to unethical people[1], and it could completely compromise national security when eg. an insider tells you 12 hours ahead of time that the US is about to launch an invasion of Venezuela. There is no societal benefit to this. [1] Even if you have no sympathy for idiots who bet their life savings on markets without having insider information, gambling addiction has extremely detrimental effects on society and directly results in increased crime rates, divorce rates, etc. as people lose all of their money and do bad things in desperation, so it is a problem that becomes everyone else's problem.
    - Hammershaft 8mo ago
      1. That is not how prediction market calibration plots work! Calibration is measured across the range of markets with different forecasted odds. https://calibration.city/introduction https://calibration.city/introduction https://manifold.markets/calibration https://manifold.markets/calibration 2. That is just obviously not all these markets are doing. They're aligning incentives and aggregating information in the same way other markets do.

Yep, far worse than cryptocurrency

by seydor 8mo ago

Yep, far worse than cryptocurrency

AI is 1000%+ far worse to be fair. Cryptocurrency (although I hate it) you don't have to participate, so no harm done. Prediction Markets you don't have to participate, so no harm done. With AI, you're participating whether you like it or not. Layoffs, Job displacement, etc. There is no opt out here. Once you're replaced with AI, that is it. At least with cryptocurrency and prediction markets you can make money but it's obviously risky. Ultimately with AI it would just push people to cryptocurrencies and prediction markets.

UqWBcuFx6NV4r 8mo ago
Dude, stop.
mpalmer 8mo ago
Do you have a positive defense of betting markets? You're spraying defensive whataboutism all over this thread and lowering the discourse. > Prediction Markets you don't have to participate, so no harm done. Harm: https://www.npr.org/2025/11/13/nx-s1-5605561/college-athletes-struggle-with-personal-attacks-on-social-media https://www.npr.org/2025/11/13/nx-s1-5605561/college-athlete... Harm: https://militarnyi.com/en/news/in-november-an-isw-analyst-manipulated-the-situation-in-myrnohrad-to-rig-map-bets/ https://militarnyi.com/en/news/in-november-an-isw-analyst-ma... Harm: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/prediction-markets-merkley-ban-iran.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/prediction-markets-merkley-b...
- colesantiago 8mo ago
  Why did you send in an article that was completely irrelevant that has nothing to do with prediction markets? What you're showing me is a death threat, which has existed for time in humans. Betting markets of all kinds have existed for a long time and haven't been banned. Banning on particular betting market prediction markets altogether and pushing it underground would make things far worse.
  - zbentley 8mo ago
    Many kinds of betting markets are or were banned all over the world. The sky didn’t fall, and what underground markets existed didn’t lead to huge gang wars or whatever. Given that the article is discussing some of the bad behavior typically associated with dark markets (death threats, extortion, fixing) happening in the light, what makes you think that banning them would make things worse?
  - mpalmer 7mo ago
    What you're showing me is a [war crime], which has existed for time in humans. [Wars] of all kinds have existed for a long time and haven't been banned. Banning on [particular tactics in war] altogether and pushing it underground would make things far worse. Do you see the problem with your logic?
    - colesantiago 7mo ago
      All you're showing are death threats that humans have made. This has happened for all of time, prediction markets or not. There is a difference. Where is the particular and specific assassination market that says: "Date on which this journalist will die"?
      - mpalmer 7mo ago
        Sorry you are clearly not engaging in good faith, I'm done
        colesantiago 7mo ago
        You didn't answer my question. Possibly because you're too emotional and raging everywhere and not stopping to think what happens when you think the answer to everything is a complete ban. I'm not the one apologising for my position, you're not completely rational at all since you don't think about the second order effects.
tasuki 8mo ago
> Prediction Markets you don't have to participate, so no harm done. What if there's a prediction market on your life? Would you say you're still "not participating, so no harm done" ?
- colesantiago 7mo ago
  Where is the particular and specific assassination market that says: "Date on which this journalist will die"?
  - tasuki 7mo ago
    I'm not saying there is. I'm saying prediction markets aren't opt-in. Similar with war in general: the moment the decision makers can earn $$$ by betting on something unlikely and then doing it, we have a problem...
zbentley 8mo ago
> Prediction Markets you don't have to participate, so no harm done. Did you read the article? It is about a journalist getting death threats from members of a prediction market.

littlecranky67 8mo ago

Wait until they ban prediction markets, then they will re-appear, and you will have to use cryptocurrency :)

zbentley 8mo ago
I’d be surprised if there wasn’t already a huge crypto-only dark market where lots of rich criminals bet huge sums. If you’re in that telegram channel, though, I imagine the threats on your life are a lot more credible than the ones discussed in TFA.
input_sh 8mo ago
Polymarket already only accepts cryptocurrencies. :) Kalshi is worse in a sense that it also accepts fiat payments.
- littlecranky67 8mo ago
  Maybe in your country, I just checked from Spain and they do accept paypal and credit cards.
  - input_sh 8mo ago
    In the US specifically, because they weren't allowed to operate in the US until November last year. But... they didn't really try to prevent US users from accessing it, just gently pointed them towards using a VPN and paying with cryptocurrencies. "Coincidentally", they also gave a bullshit advisory position to Trump Jr. and accepted an investment from his firm (1789 Capital), which I'm sure had nothing to do with them getting that licence. But to be "fair and balanced" to Polymarket, Trump Jr. is also Kalshi's "strategic advisor", so there's that!
seydor 7mo ago
not easy because you d need a trusted central to settle the outcomes. So far, crypto has only solved the betting part

somelamer567 8mo ago

Cryptocurrency itself was designed to enable crime. Why else would one want an end-run around governments and law-enforcement, unless one were a criminal wanting to prey on others risk-free?

hollerith 8mo ago
So, in your mind, making a payment, recieving a payment and holding money in savings are always bad when it goes against any government's law or order?
- lelanthran 8mo ago
  > So, in your mind, making a payment, recieving a payment and holding money in savings are always bad when it goes against any government's law or order? That's not how I read GP; "Why would you want to do an end-run around the government when using currency?" is different to, well, whatever it is you are saying (I'm not sure I can decipher it well enough - seems to be "using currency is bad when it goes against laws", but I think that's fine too, so not really sure what your message is - maybe you can clarify?) Using legal tender is not a problem. Using barter (which is what using crypocurrencies boils down to) is also not a problem. Lack of reporting your income to the tax authorities is a problem. Most bartering systems are too small to warrant the attention of tax authorities, but cryptocurrencies facilitate bartering at scale, which does warrant interest.
  - hollerith 8mo ago
    Cryptocurrencies enable crime, but they also enable people to circumvent bad policies, and the damage done by bad governmental policies is not small, particularly outside the Western democracies.
    - ForHackernews 8mo ago
      Helping the the wealthy opt-out or circumvent bad policy reduces the incentives to improve government policy. A short term win for individuals becomes a long term loss for society. This is true even in wealthy societies: see private schools, privatized healthcare, private transport.

fnands 8mo ago

At least cryptocurrencies had some nice ideas behind them. Just sad they almost immediately got co-opted by swindlers and criminals.

Hammershaft 8mo ago
Prediction markets also have very interesting ideas. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/10/prediction-markets-are-very-accurate.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/10/pr...
- applfanboysbgon 8mo ago
  Not really. 1. As pointed out in the comments, you can inflate your prediction success rate by predicting things that are 100% to happen. There are plenty of 99.9% bets on Polymarket with degens betting on some 0.01% lottery event trying to strike a jackpot against the odds, and those will inflate the perceived accuracy. 2. All you're really doing is paying insiders to leak information a few hours ahead of time. Insofar as Polymarket is unusually accurate on things that aren't ~100% to happen, it's likely because in the 12-hour-window that post measures is when all of the insiders place their last-minute bets telling you what will happen. This is extremely bad for society. It's wealth redistribution from stupid people to unethical people[1], and it could completely compromise national security when eg. an insider tells you 12 hours ahead of time that the US is about to launch an invasion of Venezuela. There is no societal benefit to this. [1] Even if you have no sympathy for idiots who bet their life savings on markets without having insider information, gambling addiction has extremely detrimental effects on society and directly results in increased crime rates, divorce rates, etc. as people lose all of their money and do bad things in desperation, so it is a problem that becomes everyone else's problem.
  - Hammershaft 8mo ago
    1. That is not how prediction market calibration plots work! Calibration is measured across the range of markets with different forecasted odds. https://calibration.city/introduction https://calibration.city/introduction https://manifold.markets/calibration https://manifold.markets/calibration 2. That is just obviously not all these markets are doing. They're aligning incentives and aggregating information in the same way other markets do.