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We are already in some sense past the threshold of sats required for a potential civlizational collapse that would be caused by the loss of access to space. Th

We are already in some sense past the threshold of sats required for a potential civlizational collapse that would be caused by the loss of access to space. There are way too many sattelites, starlink militarizing means it's a viable target now for enemy nations, any one of them taking out a couple sats and causing debris would cause a chain reaction that would effectively turn space into a dump, let's not even mention that military = more money = more sats, making it even riskier. Or the fact that at any moment those sats could also die from a carrington+ level event.

XorNot 7mo ago
...there was civilization long before satellites. The relative impact of Kessler syndrome is honestly overblown: we're simply not that dependent on satellites for day to day activities. It would be an economic disaster, but those aren't civilization ending.
WalterBright 7mo ago
> any one of them taking out a couple sats and causing debris would cause a chain reaction that would effectively turn space into a dump You may not realize how big space is relative to the size of a few sats.
- dev1ycan 7mo ago
  https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc9/paper/305/SDC9-paper305.pdf https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc9/paper/3... You may want to read an actual study about it. And this doesn't even consider the possibility that militarization of starlink satellites may cause them to get taken out, which will trigger the KS the same way.
  - WalterBright 7mo ago
    Interesting paper, thanks! I guess we'll find out.
- cryptonector 7mo ago
  Besides, SpaceX could launch more sats to even lower orbits (where they wouldn't last long just due to atmospheric drag) during a conflict -- enough to win, then we can figure out how to get all that debris cleared out.
  - danny_codes 7mo ago
    > then we can figure out how to get all that debris cleared out. How hard could it be Michael? $10?

XorNot 7mo ago

...there was civilization long before satellites. The relative impact of Kessler syndrome is honestly overblown: we're simply not that dependent on satellites for day to day activities. It would be an economic disaster, but those aren't civilization ending.

WalterBright 7mo ago

> any one of them taking out a couple sats and causing debris would cause a chain reaction that would effectively turn space into a dump You may not realize how big space is relative to the size of a few sats.

dev1ycan 7mo ago
https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc9/paper/305/SDC9-paper305.pdf https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc9/paper/3... You may want to read an actual study about it. And this doesn't even consider the possibility that militarization of starlink satellites may cause them to get taken out, which will trigger the KS the same way.
- WalterBright 7mo ago
  Interesting paper, thanks! I guess we'll find out.
cryptonector 7mo ago
Besides, SpaceX could launch more sats to even lower orbits (where they wouldn't last long just due to atmospheric drag) during a conflict -- enough to win, then we can figure out how to get all that debris cleared out.
- danny_codes 7mo ago
  > then we can figure out how to get all that debris cleared out. How hard could it be Michael? $10?