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Do you have a substantive complaint to make about the BLS methodology? So far all I see in your remark is shadowstats vibes.
by jeffbee 7mo ago
Do you have a substantive complaint to make about the BLS methodology? So far all I see in your remark is shadowstats vibes.
- iugtmkbdfil834 7mo agoI can't tell if you are serious or not. Lets assume for a moment that there was once a benefit to BLS survey methodology ( I would argue otherwise, but w/e ). Is it a good methodology today? So my main argument ( and frankly the only argument that should matter ) is that is a bad fit for the goal of estimating values ( even though we do know its failure modes ). Is that not enough?
- patmorgan23 7mo agoWhat are the alternatives, and do other countries labor statistics agencies use them?
- iugtmkbdfil834 7mo agoAlternative is to build something better. Just about anything is better than the current survey system. What I would propose is something akin to "derived real-data unemployment system". All this data exists now, but is distributed. It can be stitched together, but if one was so inclined. << do other countries No, it doesn't mean I am wrong.
- jeffbee 7mo ago"BLS CPS is worse than a hypothetical better thing" is tautological, void, and without meaning.
- iugtmkbdfil834 7mo agoIt must be nice to live in a simple binary world.
- enraged_camel 7mo agoYou made the argument and provided zero supporting evidence. As it stands, it's merely an opinion, and appears to be an uninformed one until you prove otherwise. That's what people are asking you to do.
- iugtmkbdfil834 7mo agoSigh, your supporting evidence is a record of someone saying something, which itself is merely an opinion.. men in glass houses and all that. The interesting thing about my opinion is that while it may not be AS informed as yours, it is notably above the average level of knowledge when it comes to BLS. << That's what people are asking you to do. No. What I am being asked to do is: "Show me a better way, but I only accept a better way that is already utilized by someone else". Not a recipe for a thoughtful exchange of ideas.
- salawat 7mo agoI've never met a single person willing to attest to filling out a BLS survey. Not once. If their methodology is built on that + unemployment data from State Unemployment agencies + data from payroll processors, anyone not collecting state unemployment benefits is invisible to the system, and half of the payroll is actually not even consituted of U.S. Citizens. Admittedly, if I could find a single instance of someone willing to vouch or share insight on having filled out a BLS survey, that'd cure a healthy chunk of skepticism. There's still be the other distortions in the data to account for, but I'd at least have an instance proving that yeah, there is somebody filling out these surveys and it isn't just something they say they do to make their magic unemployment number sound legit. Note, I'm in a massive sceptical shit phase at the moment. Last decade has burned my optimism hard. So when it comes to my ability to assume benevolent intent right now, there's a heavy bias against doing it, and a heavier bias in the direction of "what would be the easiest way to keep the System limping along?" The answer to that is "say you do one thing, in reality do another, and as long as no one comes lookin', it's gold." The finance industry runs on Trust moreso than anything else, and there ain't much to be said for Trusting anything you can't verify these days. Not from other humans.
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago> I've never met a single person willing to attest to filling out a BLS survey I’ve never met a single chicken farmer. Does that mean I should be sceptical about them existing? Like, what sort of metric is this for truth finding? > to assume benevolent intent No need. Markets move on these data. The rich and powerful bet their money on what they say.
- selimthegrim 7mo agoNo one's ever met a Gideon either.
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago> No one's ever met a Gideon either I’ve never != nobody has.