Check out http://electionanalytics.cs.illinois.edu/ http://electionanalytics.cs.illinois.edu/ for an alternative to Nate Silver. It uses bayesian analysis and

Check out http://electionanalytics.cs.illinois.edu/ http://electionanalytics.cs.illinois.edu/ for an alternative to Nate Silver. It uses bayesian analysis and dynamic program to come up with a deterministic snapshot of the election. It is based on the polling data, so if the data is off the snapshot will be off, but otherwise it seems to provide a great snapshot of the Election.