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The five thirty eight model is actually based on accounting for accuracies in the polling data. It take's a poll's historical accuracy into account when weigh
by mikeryan 14y ago
The five thirty eight model is actually based on accounting for accuracies in the polling data.
It take's a poll's historical accuracy into account when weighing its impact on the model. This is where he gets an additional degree of accuracy as opposed to straight poll aggregation. So it actually does "choose" which polls to believe...
- mayneack 14y agoYes. Unbiased != more accurate. If, for example, there is a poll you KNOW is doing something wrong, you should down-weight it. A pure polling average there would be wrong. However, once you start weighting polls, people start criticizing the way you do it.