3 ms·
After all the number-crunching it was amusing to see a headline which even a headless chicken could have come up with. "Ohio Has 50-50 Chance of Deciding Elect
by bitcartel 14y ago
After all the number-crunching it was amusing to see a headline which even a headless chicken could have come up with.
"Ohio Has 50-50 Chance of Deciding Election"
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/23/oct-22-ohio-has-50-50-chance-of-deciding-election/ http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/23/oct-22-o...
Perhaps some pundits dislike Mr Silver because he is able to rationalise what they only have a gut feeling for.
- theorique 14y agoNot so much rationalize - he's actually putting it on a statistical and quantitative foundation. There's a fundamental difference between arguing from narrative and history, and technical arguments based on the statistics of how people actually vote based on polling.
- alexqgb 14y agoWorse that that, he's demonstrating that the 'access' and 'insights' and 'instincts' on which their status as Notable Pundits depends is actually worthless. They are simply making shit up, and what they invent is invariably a tight race scenario because that's what gets the most profitable ratings. In othr words, he is demonstrating both their fraudulence and the disservice they do to democracy. And people LOVE him.
- aptwebapps 14y ago"... what they invent is invariably a tight race scenario because that's what gets the most profitable ratings." I disagree. I much prefer the article's explanation for why they invariably invent a tight race: journalistic 'objectivity'. As Coddington pointed out, when all the highest sources on both sides of the campaign say it's tight, who is Silver to disagree?