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>“If you think it’s a toss-up, let’s bet,” Silver Tweeted at Scarborough. “If Obama wins, you donate $1,000 to the American Red Cross. If Romney wins, I do. Dea
by sxp 14y ago
>“If you think it’s a toss-up, let’s bet,” Silver Tweeted at Scarborough. “If Obama wins, you donate $1,000 to the American Red Cross. If Romney wins, I do. Deal?”
Wouldn't a better bet be something like $800 to Scarborough's charity if Romney wins or $200 to Silver's charity if Obama wins given that Silver has Obama at 80%? That makes Silver's confidence more visible than by using an even bet.
- ssharp 14y agoI'd rather get 1/1 on a bet bookmakers are laying 1/4 on than make my confidence more visible :)
- albedoa 14y agoExactly this. A fair bet is theoretically passing money back and forth. Silver should offer the worst odds that Scarborough is likely to accept, which should be 1:1 is Scarborough is as confident as he claims.
- MaysonL 14y agoScarborough's the one saying it's a toss-up, so Silver's proposing a bet at Joe's odds. If Joe really believes his own odds, the bet would be fair.
- btilly 14y agoAny competent gambler knows that a fair bet is not worth taking. See the Kelly criterion if you don't know what I am talking about.
- SkyMarshal 14y agoThat's also the point, Nate is implying Joe is not a competent gambler, or at least not a competent odds-calculator.