3 ms·

I'm starting to find the naive techno-optimism here annoying. If you don't have capital or can do something else you will be homeless.

ipnon 7mo ago
But you only $200/month for the productivity of what used to cost monthly salary for 10 software engineers. Doesn't this democratize software construction?
- allreduce 7mo ago
  It commoditizes software construction. The resources to learn how to construct software are already free. However learning requires effort, which made learning to build software an opportunity to climb the ladder and build a better life through skill. This is democratization. Now the skill needed to build software is starting to approach zero. However as you say you can throw money at an AI corporation to get some amount of software built. So the differentiator is capital, which can buy software rather cheaply. The dependency on skill is lessened greatly and software is becoming worthless, so another avenue to escape poverty through skill closes.
  - socalgal2 7mo ago
    You might be right but it's common to see that take as short sighted since there is zero evidence it's ever happened before. The common example is the loom. The loom didn't democritize cloth making, it put all the weavers out of business. But it did democritize everything that needed cloth because cloth became cheap. 1000s more jobs were created by making cloth cheap. In a similar way, 1000s of different jobs might be created by making software creation cheap, but just like cloth makers, software makers have no purpose when making software is easy.
- kjkjadksj 7mo ago
  Did ms word usher in a surge of novel writing? Not really apparent.
gf000 7mo ago
Well, there are so many more lower hanging fruits that LLMs can actually replace before they get to developers -- basically every middle manager, and a significant chunk of all white collar jobs. I'm not convinced software developers will be replaced - probably less will be needed and the exact work will be transformed a bit, but an expert human still has to be in the loop, otherwise all you get is a bunch of nonsense. Nonetheless, it may very well transform society and we will have to adapt to it.
- GeoAtreides 7mo ago
  you know, natural attrition is still attrition.
- allreduce 7mo ago
  Not all software development will be automated immediatly. But I've noticed that many skills I've built are lessened in worth with every model release. Having a lot of specifics about a programming environment memorized for example used to be the difference between building something in a few hours and a week, but now is pretty unimportant. Same with being able to do some quick data wrangling on the command line. LLMs are also good at parsing a lot of code or even binary format quickly and explaining how it works. That used to be a skill. Knowing a toolbox of technologies to use is needed less. Et cetera. They haven't come for the meat of what makes a good engineer yet. For example, the systems-level interfacing with external needs and solving those pragmatically is still hard. But the tide is rising.
  - samiv 7mo ago
    The capitalists and industrialists have waited for centuries to get rid of paid labor. Imagine the profits once the cost of human work gets out of the loop! Of course the question that is left unanswered is how the economy will work there's no one left with purchasing power. But I guess the answer to this is, the same way it works now in any developing country without much of a middle class.
    - jaco6 7mo ago
butILoveLife 7mo ago
Yep. I own a software shop and yesterday was when I realized that I'm no longer going to be a 1%er doing this.
- dominotw 7mo ago
  what happened yesterday?
0x262d 7mo ago
A lot of people expect to be owning the capital. However I also just don't think the technology will displace programmers that quickly.

ipnon 7mo ago

But you only $200/month for the productivity of what used to cost monthly salary for 10 software engineers. Doesn't this democratize software construction?

allreduce 7mo ago
It commoditizes software construction. The resources to learn how to construct software are already free. However learning requires effort, which made learning to build software an opportunity to climb the ladder and build a better life through skill. This is democratization. Now the skill needed to build software is starting to approach zero. However as you say you can throw money at an AI corporation to get some amount of software built. So the differentiator is capital, which can buy software rather cheaply. The dependency on skill is lessened greatly and software is becoming worthless, so another avenue to escape poverty through skill closes.
- socalgal2 7mo ago
  You might be right but it's common to see that take as short sighted since there is zero evidence it's ever happened before. The common example is the loom. The loom didn't democritize cloth making, it put all the weavers out of business. But it did democritize everything that needed cloth because cloth became cheap. 1000s more jobs were created by making cloth cheap. In a similar way, 1000s of different jobs might be created by making software creation cheap, but just like cloth makers, software makers have no purpose when making software is easy.
kjkjadksj 7mo ago
Did ms word usher in a surge of novel writing? Not really apparent.

gf000 7mo ago

Well, there are so many more lower hanging fruits that LLMs can actually replace before they get to developers -- basically every middle manager, and a significant chunk of all white collar jobs. I'm not convinced software developers will be replaced - probably less will be needed and the exact work will be transformed a bit, but an expert human still has to be in the loop, otherwise all you get is a bunch of nonsense. Nonetheless, it may very well transform society and we will have to adapt to it.

GeoAtreides 7mo ago
you know, natural attrition is still attrition.
allreduce 7mo ago
Not all software development will be automated immediatly. But I've noticed that many skills I've built are lessened in worth with every model release. Having a lot of specifics about a programming environment memorized for example used to be the difference between building something in a few hours and a week, but now is pretty unimportant. Same with being able to do some quick data wrangling on the command line. LLMs are also good at parsing a lot of code or even binary format quickly and explaining how it works. That used to be a skill. Knowing a toolbox of technologies to use is needed less. Et cetera. They haven't come for the meat of what makes a good engineer yet. For example, the systems-level interfacing with external needs and solving those pragmatically is still hard. But the tide is rising.
- samiv 7mo ago
  The capitalists and industrialists have waited for centuries to get rid of paid labor. Imagine the profits once the cost of human work gets out of the loop! Of course the question that is left unanswered is how the economy will work there's no one left with purchasing power. But I guess the answer to this is, the same way it works now in any developing country without much of a middle class.
  - jaco6 7mo ago

butILoveLife 7mo ago

Yep. I own a software shop and yesterday was when I realized that I'm no longer going to be a 1%er doing this.

dominotw 7mo ago
what happened yesterday?

0x262d 7mo ago

A lot of people expect to be owning the capital. However I also just don't think the technology will displace programmers that quickly.