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Clearly a wager is the way to solve this problem (Bayesian interpretation of probability). Is it legal to gamble on an election result? They could use the fol
by defen 14y ago
Clearly a wager is the way to solve this problem (Bayesian interpretation of probability). Is it legal to gamble on an election result? They could use the following payouts - J represents a regular journalist using 50/50 odds, N represents Nate Silver using 75/25 Obama/Romney:
Romney win:
J: +1000
N: -1000
Obama win:
J: -600
N: +600
With those payouts each side has an expected value of +200 dollars for this wager, using the specified odds they believe to be true, so both should be willing to take it.
- Evbn 14y agoImtrade and trade sports do this. It is also trivial to simulate with play money over many elections and races.