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Effectively, it's a continuation of the Gaza and Ukraine wars. Israel and Iran have been fighting for years, with Iran generally using various intermediaries.

by jfengel 8mo ago

Effectively, it's a continuation of the Gaza and Ukraine wars. Israel and Iran have been fighting for years, with Iran generally using various intermediaries. The October 7 attacks were orchestrated and funded by Iran. Having spent several years punishing the Gazans for it, Israel is moving on to Iran itself. It has enlisted the help of the US, who are going along with it for a variety of reasons. One of those reasons is Ukraine. Iran has been helping arm Russia, and evade sanctions. The Ukraine war has been called "World War III" for four years now, pitting the West against a coalition of opposing forces, of which Iran has long been one. This is the best I can do to "sanewash" it. In fact, a good chunk of it is arrogance, stupidity, warmongering, and distraction.

prmph 8mo ago
> Iran has been helping arm Russia, and evade sanctions Not sure this bit makes sense. The current occupant of the white house is firmly in the camp of Russia; that is plain for all to see. In fact, the current war is driving up oil prices and thus actually helps Putin, which may be intended. They are also lifting sanction on Russia.
- jfengel 8mo ago
  He's not exactly in their camp. I hate to invoke Hanlon's Razor because a lot of what he does is malice rather than stupidity, but on Russia he has been inconsistent in a way that doesn't suggest that he's just following orders. If he really wanted to just give up Ukraine, he could have. It's not as if he's afraid to piss off our allies. There's no 4D chess going on. He likes Russia. He admires their strongman. He wants to be one too. He doesn't want to just give up Ukraine, but neither does he care what happens to it. Like Putin he's happy just to make everyone else deal with his random behavior. He has a ton of advisers with conflicting goals. Some of them really do want to take down Russia, or prolong its involvement in Ukraine to distract them. Any explanation for this war is the sum of those conflicting advisors. It's often said that he does whatever the last person in the room wants. I don't think it's quite true, but it's not way to understand how his contradictory actions come about.
cosmicgadget 8mo ago
> The Ukraine war has been called "World War III" for four years now While being restricted almost entirely to eastern Ukraine and fought by two nationalities with a few hired guns. People should examine the other world wars.
- jfengel 8mo ago
  The other world wars started as conflicts between two countries that expanded to take in their allies. Right now the West is desperately trying to walk a line of supplying Ukraine with money, weapons, and intelligence, but scrupulously avoiding putting any of their own force at risk. They think that is what will trigger the World War cascade of allies. Which hasn't happened yet. Either they are right, or they are just prolonging the conflict by failing to step in.
  - cosmicgadget 8mo ago
    > The other world wars started as conflicts between two countries that expanded to take in their allies. So if this is all you need then every conflict is a world war. > Right now the West is desperately trying to walk a line of supplying Ukraine with money, weapons, and intelligence, Desperately? It's been the status quo for four years. We're all just waiting out the Russian economy or Putin's cancer. > They think that is what will trigger the World War cascade of allies. Lol you mean Russia's mutual defense pact with Belarus? It's not like China or India give enough of a crap about Russia to do anything other than watch and laugh.

by jfengel 8mo ago

prmph 8mo ago

> Iran has been helping arm Russia, and evade sanctions Not sure this bit makes sense. The current occupant of the white house is firmly in the camp of Russia; that is plain for all to see. In fact, the current war is driving up oil prices and thus actually helps Putin, which may be intended. They are also lifting sanction on Russia.

jfengel 8mo ago
He's not exactly in their camp. I hate to invoke Hanlon's Razor because a lot of what he does is malice rather than stupidity, but on Russia he has been inconsistent in a way that doesn't suggest that he's just following orders. If he really wanted to just give up Ukraine, he could have. It's not as if he's afraid to piss off our allies. There's no 4D chess going on. He likes Russia. He admires their strongman. He wants to be one too. He doesn't want to just give up Ukraine, but neither does he care what happens to it. Like Putin he's happy just to make everyone else deal with his random behavior. He has a ton of advisers with conflicting goals. Some of them really do want to take down Russia, or prolong its involvement in Ukraine to distract them. Any explanation for this war is the sum of those conflicting advisors. It's often said that he does whatever the last person in the room wants. I don't think it's quite true, but it's not way to understand how his contradictory actions come about.

cosmicgadget 8mo ago

> The Ukraine war has been called "World War III" for four years now While being restricted almost entirely to eastern Ukraine and fought by two nationalities with a few hired guns. People should examine the other world wars.

jfengel 8mo ago
The other world wars started as conflicts between two countries that expanded to take in their allies. Right now the West is desperately trying to walk a line of supplying Ukraine with money, weapons, and intelligence, but scrupulously avoiding putting any of their own force at risk. They think that is what will trigger the World War cascade of allies. Which hasn't happened yet. Either they are right, or they are just prolonging the conflict by failing to step in.
- cosmicgadget 8mo ago
  > The other world wars started as conflicts between two countries that expanded to take in their allies. So if this is all you need then every conflict is a world war. > Right now the West is desperately trying to walk a line of supplying Ukraine with money, weapons, and intelligence, Desperately? It's been the status quo for four years. We're all just waiting out the Russian economy or Putin's cancer. > They think that is what will trigger the World War cascade of allies. Lol you mean Russia's mutual defense pact with Belarus? It's not like China or India give enough of a crap about Russia to do anything other than watch and laugh.