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It's in the campaign's interests to paint is a tight race, because they don't want to promote political apathy. They want people to vote. To put it another way
by Osmium 14y ago
It's in the campaign's interests to paint is a tight race, because they don't want to promote political apathy. They want people to vote.
To put it another way if his model suggested, e.g., Obama has a 100% chance of winning, and everyone knew that, his supporters would be less inclined to vote and he could lose. So there's a chaotic element to these things that's just difficult to predict, and journalists are better placed to handle this chaotic element (another example: Hurricane Sandy). That said, given the abundance of polling data, I think his model stands to be a much better predictor than journalistic intuition.
- TwoBit 14y agoIf Obama was forecast to havee 100% chance of winning, wouldn't voters for alternative candidates also be less inlcined to vote?
- greenyoda 14y agoThey might also view it as a challenge to prove the pundits wrong, and turn out in large numbers.
- kd0amg 14y agoDepends how "alternative" those candidates are -- it might convince more people that they can vote for their actual favorite instead of issuing a strategic vote for whichever of the two major-party candidates they find less objectionable than the other.