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This is a whole wall of post hoc ergo propter hoc. You can’t state with any certainty that the ATM’s increased efficiency had anything to do with the expansion

This is a whole wall of post hoc ergo propter hoc. You can’t state with any certainty that the ATM’s increased efficiency had anything to do with the expansion of bank branches. That could have simply been due to the strong population and economic growth. It’s quite possible (and I’d assume it to be true) that if the ATM had never been invented, there would have been far more bank tellers in 2005 than there were. You also can’t assume the iPhone had that much to do with it. With the exception of depositing checks, there was nothing I couldn’t do on my computer in 2005 that I could on my phone in 2025. And you could always deposit a check at an ATM. It wasn’t like in 2006 we were all like “well I can only check my bank balance on my laptop so I’m going to drive there instead.” It seems quite likely that other trends caused all of this.

techblueberry 7mo ago
“Correlation doesn't imply causation, but it does waggle its eyebrows suggestively and gesture furtively while mouthing 'look over there'.” What exactly is your competing theory?
- mattmaroon 7mo ago
  ATMs did reduce the need for bank tellers but population and economic growth simply increased the amount of banks faster. Digital payments accelerated during Covid (prior to that it was uncommon for a business to not take cash, now you see it in a lot of places) and reduced the need to go to a branch. Banks are often located in high visibility retail areas, many of which have closed or are struggling to get foot traffic these days. The only difference smartphones make is the ability to deposit checks. Which you could already do at the ATM. A lot of the people so old they can’t use iPhones or ATMs (ask any bank teller in retail and they’ll tell you they mostly serve seniors) passed away in the last several years. There are really 500 other ways to skin this cat, and it’s surely a combination of them, but there’s no reason to suspect the iPhone was the straw that broke the camels back. A lot of things happened all at once.

techblueberry 7mo ago

“Correlation doesn't imply causation, but it does waggle its eyebrows suggestively and gesture furtively while mouthing 'look over there'.” What exactly is your competing theory?

mattmaroon 7mo ago
ATMs did reduce the need for bank tellers but population and economic growth simply increased the amount of banks faster. Digital payments accelerated during Covid (prior to that it was uncommon for a business to not take cash, now you see it in a lot of places) and reduced the need to go to a branch. Banks are often located in high visibility retail areas, many of which have closed or are struggling to get foot traffic these days. The only difference smartphones make is the ability to deposit checks. Which you could already do at the ATM. A lot of the people so old they can’t use iPhones or ATMs (ask any bank teller in retail and they’ll tell you they mostly serve seniors) passed away in the last several years. There are really 500 other ways to skin this cat, and it’s surely a combination of them, but there’s no reason to suspect the iPhone was the straw that broke the camels back. A lot of things happened all at once.