5 ms·

Does anyone know if I should be as scared as I am that there are 5 paths to tie? Is that the norm in a presidential election? because it sounds crazy.

knowtheory 14y ago
They're pretty low likelihood events. Wikipedia appears to have a pretty solid writeup of the electoral college system (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)#Alternative_methods_of_choosing_electors http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_State... ) which includes the various mechanisms states use to select their electors. The vast majority of the states are winner-take-all, which presumably reduces but doesn't eliminate the possible ways to split 538 down the middle, but some states either only have a single electoral vote or use mechanisms which can divide their electoral votes between the candidates. So, yeah, every election has this chance. Probably isn't going to happen though. This is conjecture, but I'd hazard a guess that a Bush v. Gore style dispute over a single large state which holds the balance of the election is way more likely than an actual numerical tie where the House would choose the president and the Senate the VP.
mlinsey 14y ago
Dunno why that would be scary. Ties (or really, any allocation of electoral votes where no candidate gets to 270) are resolved in the House of Representatives, and this was common practice in the early 19th century. If it were to happen now, there would be a lot of complaining, but overall it would be less of a constitutional crisis than the 2000 election. If anything, it might be a spark for true electoral reform.
- ianstormtaylor 14y ago
  Ah yeah, I stupidly misinterpreted the bottom row of the graph and thought there were 5 ties out of the 20 or so possibilities (forgetting the branches that didn't need to be resolved by New Hampshire), but now I realize that was only for decisions ultimately decided by New Hampshire. That Wikipedia article talking about the 1800 tie is pretty awesome.
- jlgreco 14y ago
  > House of Representatives Considering every time you hear a story about politicians trying something insane, it seems to be about the House of Representatives, I think that is exactly why a tie sounds scary.
kmfrk 14y ago
This is a good indicator of Obama's chances: http://election.princeton.edu/history-of-electoral-votes-for-obama/ http://election.princeton.edu/history-of-electoral-votes-for.... Barring external events, you can probably put a fork in it.

knowtheory 14y ago

They're pretty low likelihood events. Wikipedia appears to have a pretty solid writeup of the electoral college system (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)#Alternative_methods_of_choosing_electors http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_State... ) which includes the various mechanisms states use to select their electors. The vast majority of the states are winner-take-all, which presumably reduces but doesn't eliminate the possible ways to split 538 down the middle, but some states either only have a single electoral vote or use mechanisms which can divide their electoral votes between the candidates. So, yeah, every election has this chance. Probably isn't going to happen though. This is conjecture, but I'd hazard a guess that a Bush v. Gore style dispute over a single large state which holds the balance of the election is way more likely than an actual numerical tie where the House would choose the president and the Senate the VP.

mlinsey 14y ago

Dunno why that would be scary. Ties (or really, any allocation of electoral votes where no candidate gets to 270) are resolved in the House of Representatives, and this was common practice in the early 19th century. If it were to happen now, there would be a lot of complaining, but overall it would be less of a constitutional crisis than the 2000 election. If anything, it might be a spark for true electoral reform.

ianstormtaylor 14y ago
Ah yeah, I stupidly misinterpreted the bottom row of the graph and thought there were 5 ties out of the 20 or so possibilities (forgetting the branches that didn't need to be resolved by New Hampshire), but now I realize that was only for decisions ultimately decided by New Hampshire. That Wikipedia article talking about the 1800 tie is pretty awesome.
jlgreco 14y ago
> House of Representatives Considering every time you hear a story about politicians trying something insane, it seems to be about the House of Representatives, I think that is exactly why a tie sounds scary.

kmfrk 14y ago

This is a good indicator of Obama's chances: http://election.princeton.edu/history-of-electoral-votes-for-obama/ http://election.princeton.edu/history-of-electoral-votes-for.... Barring external events, you can probably put a fork in it.