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Alternative scenario: Iran should be militarily defeated in a few weeks, so that's a brief shot in the arm. If Iran gets a half decent government and sanction
by BurningFrog 7mo ago
Alternative scenario:
Iran should be militarily defeated in a few weeks, so that's a brief shot in the arm.
If Iran gets a half decent government and sanctions on Iran are lifted, that would lower oil prices and hit the Russian economy.
- roryirvine 7mo agoBy way of comparison, Iraq's oil production didn't return to the pre-war level until mid 2012. It's probably reasonable to expect several years of disruption to Iranian oil even if sanctions were to be completely lifted in the very near term.
- BurningFrog 7mo agoSure, but blocking Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi, Qatar etc from exporting through Hormuz has a much bigger effect on global oil prices, and that can be resumed immediately if/when the war stops.