3 ms·

KSA can get most of their oil to the Red Sea in 2-3 years (like 90%+). By the end of the year, they should be able to get >50% there. UAE can get ~30% through

KSA can get most of their oil to the Red Sea in 2-3 years (like 90%+). By the end of the year, they should be able to get >50% there. UAE can get ~30% through Oman now, and probably ~75% in 3-4 years. Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar are screwed without the straight. Qatar could probably work a deal with KSA to get all of their oil through its pipes to the Red Sea if need be in 2-3 years, but they'd pay a premium. If I had to guess, I think this will structurally push KSA and UAE to move out of the straight, and for anyone in the straight to be tied to China and India. I imagine Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Iran are all going to become Chinese and Indian client states. North & South America now have a major oil & natural gas surplus. Their total usage is declining and production is increasing. Meanwhile, the EU, Japan, SK, etc are moving towards renewables & nuclear as fast as they can. China's probably reached peak fossil fuel imports already.

joe_mamba 7mo ago
>Meanwhile, the EU, Japan, SK, etc are moving towards renewables & nuclear as fast as they can. Yeah, but current EU energy prices are as high as they ever been, so that doesn't help the EU manufacturing industry that in 10 years we'll be fossil fuel free, if they have to close shop in 12 months from the energy price hikes.
- toomuchtodo 7mo ago
  > but current EU energy prices are as high as they ever been This is factually inaccurate. Ember Energy: European electricity prices and costs - https://ember-energy.org/data/european-electricity-prices-and-costs/ https://ember-energy.org/data/european-electricity-prices-an... (updated daily) Ember Energy: Wind and solar generated more power than fossil fuels in the EU for the first time in 2025 - https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/wind-and-solar-generated-more-power-than-fossil-fuels-in-the-eu-for-the-first-time-in-2025/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/wind-and-solar-gener... - January 22nd, 2026 Bloomberg: How Europe Ditched Russian Fossil Fuels With Spectacular Speed - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-02-21/ukraine-news-europe-ditches-russia-fossil-fuels-with-surprising-speed https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-02-21/ukraine-n... | https://archive.today/yxGp2 https://archive.today/yxGp2 - February 21st, 2023 > But what the past year has shown is that it’s possible to go harder and faster in deploying solar panels and batteries, reducing energy use, and permanently swapping out entrenched sources of fossil fuel. > Solar installations across Europe increased by a record 40-gigawatts last year, up 35% compared with 2021, just shy of the most optimistic scenario from researchers at BloombergNEF. That jump was driven primarily by consumers who saw cheap solar panels as a way to cut their own energy bills. It essentially pushed the solar rollout ahead by a few years, hitting a level that will be sustained by EU policies. (Europe has enough wind potential to power the world, their energy constraints are deployment rate of renewables, battery storage, and transmission)
  - joe_mamba 7mo ago
    >This is factually inaccurate Yes, if you ignore the brief 2022 spike, they're as high as they ever been. Oh wow, you got me on a technicality, you're so clever, bravo, even though that doesn't change the situation of today where plenty of EU manufacturing companies have closed shop or moved jobs and manufacturing abroad since 2022. From the link you posted, I see that energy today is still roughly 4x higher than it was before the Russian war, at least in my EU country. How competitive do you think EU manufacturing is today versus back then given the current pricing? How long can Eu companies stay in business given these circumstances? How long can EU taxpayers subsidize the energy of private business to make sure they don't go bust or leave before higher inflation kicks in? Edit to answer your reply below here: No, the EU can't flip its energy producing industry on a dime in response to instantaneous external shocks. All it can do is print money and subsides energy costs for industry at the expense of inflation and higher CoL for the population.
    - deleted 7mo ago
      [deleted]
    - toomuchtodo 7mo ago
      Yes, energy is more expensive than when Europe received favorable fossil gas prices from Russia (as the Ember graphs demonstrate) prior to the Russo-Ukrainian war. Europe is not going back to Russia for energy. Europe has sufficient domestic renewable and low carbon (nuclear, hydro) energy potential to achieve a similar "energy cost ratio" as they previously achieved when cheap Russian fossil gas was procured. Europe will experience elevated energy prices until they have deployed enough renewables and storage to achieve historical energy costs. How long it takes for Europe to achieve this outcome is a capital investment and deployment velocity decision. The capital exists, the technology and manufacturing capacity exists. How competitive does Europe want to be from a manufacturing perspective? The answer to that is the speed at which they drive down energy costs using the various technologies I've enumerated. I've reached out to an Ember contact to inquire if they could communicate this time window and velocity in some fashion on their graphs for Europe ("time to historical energy price levels via energy transition").
youngtaff 7mo ago
Isn't Qatar's main export gas?
thisislife2 7mo ago
The Houthis offer a similar threat in the Red Sea though. And we've seen how successfully they managed to disrupt shipping there.
- onlyrealcuzzo 7mo ago
  Not to Europe. KSA -> Europe. UAE -> Wherever it wants. Gulf -> India and China client states.
- TheCoelacanth 7mo ago
  At least with the Red Sea there's the option of going the other way around Africa.

joe_mamba 7mo ago

>Meanwhile, the EU, Japan, SK, etc are moving towards renewables & nuclear as fast as they can. Yeah, but current EU energy prices are as high as they ever been, so that doesn't help the EU manufacturing industry that in 10 years we'll be fossil fuel free, if they have to close shop in 12 months from the energy price hikes.

toomuchtodo 7mo ago
> but current EU energy prices are as high as they ever been This is factually inaccurate. Ember Energy: European electricity prices and costs - https://ember-energy.org/data/european-electricity-prices-and-costs/ https://ember-energy.org/data/european-electricity-prices-an... (updated daily) Ember Energy: Wind and solar generated more power than fossil fuels in the EU for the first time in 2025 - https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/wind-and-solar-generated-more-power-than-fossil-fuels-in-the-eu-for-the-first-time-in-2025/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/wind-and-solar-gener... - January 22nd, 2026 Bloomberg: How Europe Ditched Russian Fossil Fuels With Spectacular Speed - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-02-21/ukraine-news-europe-ditches-russia-fossil-fuels-with-surprising-speed https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-02-21/ukraine-n... | https://archive.today/yxGp2 https://archive.today/yxGp2 - February 21st, 2023 > But what the past year has shown is that it’s possible to go harder and faster in deploying solar panels and batteries, reducing energy use, and permanently swapping out entrenched sources of fossil fuel. > Solar installations across Europe increased by a record 40-gigawatts last year, up 35% compared with 2021, just shy of the most optimistic scenario from researchers at BloombergNEF. That jump was driven primarily by consumers who saw cheap solar panels as a way to cut their own energy bills. It essentially pushed the solar rollout ahead by a few years, hitting a level that will be sustained by EU policies. (Europe has enough wind potential to power the world, their energy constraints are deployment rate of renewables, battery storage, and transmission)
- joe_mamba 7mo ago
  >This is factually inaccurate Yes, if you ignore the brief 2022 spike, they're as high as they ever been. Oh wow, you got me on a technicality, you're so clever, bravo, even though that doesn't change the situation of today where plenty of EU manufacturing companies have closed shop or moved jobs and manufacturing abroad since 2022. From the link you posted, I see that energy today is still roughly 4x higher than it was before the Russian war, at least in my EU country. How competitive do you think EU manufacturing is today versus back then given the current pricing? How long can Eu companies stay in business given these circumstances? How long can EU taxpayers subsidize the energy of private business to make sure they don't go bust or leave before higher inflation kicks in? Edit to answer your reply below here: No, the EU can't flip its energy producing industry on a dime in response to instantaneous external shocks. All it can do is print money and subsides energy costs for industry at the expense of inflation and higher CoL for the population.
  - deleted 7mo ago
    [deleted]
  - toomuchtodo 7mo ago
    Yes, energy is more expensive than when Europe received favorable fossil gas prices from Russia (as the Ember graphs demonstrate) prior to the Russo-Ukrainian war. Europe is not going back to Russia for energy. Europe has sufficient domestic renewable and low carbon (nuclear, hydro) energy potential to achieve a similar "energy cost ratio" as they previously achieved when cheap Russian fossil gas was procured. Europe will experience elevated energy prices until they have deployed enough renewables and storage to achieve historical energy costs. How long it takes for Europe to achieve this outcome is a capital investment and deployment velocity decision. The capital exists, the technology and manufacturing capacity exists. How competitive does Europe want to be from a manufacturing perspective? The answer to that is the speed at which they drive down energy costs using the various technologies I've enumerated. I've reached out to an Ember contact to inquire if they could communicate this time window and velocity in some fashion on their graphs for Europe ("time to historical energy price levels via energy transition").

youngtaff 7mo ago

Isn't Qatar's main export gas?

thisislife2 7mo ago

The Houthis offer a similar threat in the Red Sea though. And we've seen how successfully they managed to disrupt shipping there.

onlyrealcuzzo 7mo ago
Not to Europe. KSA -> Europe. UAE -> Wherever it wants. Gulf -> India and China client states.
TheCoelacanth 7mo ago
At least with the Red Sea there's the option of going the other way around Africa.