For folks reasoning through the "paradox," this may be helpful: https://arxiv.org/pdf/0904.2540 https://arxiv.org/pdf/0904.2540 Abstract: > ...We show that t

For folks reasoning through the "paradox," this may be helpful: https://arxiv.org/pdf/0904.2540 https://arxiv.org/pdf/0904.2540 Abstract: > ...We show that the conflicting recommendations in Newcomb’s scenario use different Bayes nets to relate your choice and the algorithm’s prediction. These two Bayes nets are incompatible. This resolves the paradox: the reason there appears to be two conflicting recommendations is that the specification of the underlying Bayes net is open to two, conflicting interpretations...