3 ms·

Wars are hard to predict and the economy is hard to predict. There's easy money in the making for those who are sure the oil price is going to continue way up.

by YZF 7mo ago

Wars are hard to predict and the economy is hard to predict. There's easy money in the making for those who are sure the oil price is going to continue way up. The blog you reference has inaccuracies. Drones are generally not shot by THAAD is a glaring one. It's very much not 2-3 million dollars to $50k. Helicopter gunships shoot down drones with bullets these days is very common and there are other economic means of bringing them down. Most of the heavy lifting in suppressing these attacks is done by other drones patrolling the skies and attacking anything that tries to fire. Those also don't use extremely expensive munitions. "Iran produces approximately 500 of these drones per day and holds a stockpile estimated at around 80,000 units.". Both these are false today. I'd also question if they were true when Iran was attacked. These figures don't pass the smell test and either way any stockpile is an instant target. Everyone seems to be an expert today. It's obviously not great that the Hormuz straits are more or less closed. We've seen in Yemen that a ragtag force can be massively attacked and still manage to fire at ships on a much larger body of water. That said we didn't really see if they can sustain it for months under heavy attack which is a possible premise here. There are some pipelines bypassing the straits but their capacity is much smaller. It's also about 20% of the world supply so definitely other suppliers can make up for some of the loss at a cost. I'm not an expert. But the current oil price reflects what the experts think best. And that price is still below what it was for about half of 2022. And fluctuating. What will matter is the price over months.

msy 7mo ago
Absolutely agree there's both some dubious suppositions and hand-waving there. The real question is I suspect how much pressure the GCC can withstand and how much pressure they can apply to Trump directly given business ties etc. If they lose a serious chunk of desalination capacity for example the situation becomes dire extremely quickly. For Dubai simply not having a decent supply of fresh food would alone be an economic catastrophe, every day this drags on is doing reputational damage that'll take years to fully recover from long after the hotel facades are patched up.
mrtksn 7mo ago
> The blog you reference has inaccuracies. Drones are generally not shot by THAAD is a glaring one It's obvious that the author doesn't mean THAAD but Patriot, which are indeed used against drones. You can tell that by the missle cost the author mentions, which is 1/10th of the THAAD missle. As the argument is a cost effectiveness argument the logic holds, just replace THAAD with Patriot. Even though Ukraine offered their cost effective solution, they have a war to fight so any serious capacity increase will probably take months if not years and these things are not static and are quickly shaped on the battlefield so the Gulf states and Israel and USA will need to develop talent that is on the battlefield, like Russia and Ukraine did.
- palmotea 7mo ago
  > It's obvious that the author doesn't mean THAAD but Patriot That's a bit sloppy.
- TOMDM 7mo ago
  We're likely to see Ukraine some of their own domestic anti drone capability for Gulf State Patriots. Gulf States trading dollar for dollar with Ukraine on Patriots and anti drone capability is likely to leave both parties very happy.
cherry_tree 7mo ago
Why type so much with not a single drop of sourced information? > Everyone seems to be an expert today. > I'm not an expert. But Is this post intended as a joke?
- YZF 7mo ago
  It's intended as my informed opinion as a response to the parent less informed opinion with questionable sources. I'm not the one writing a blog and pretending to be an expert. I have some knowledge and I can write what I want. I know THAAD is against ballistic missiles and not against drones. I know Israeli helicopters have been bringing down drones. So I write that. It's true and I don't need to "source it". This isn't Wikipedia.
yutyut 7mo ago
> Helicopter gunships shoot down drones with bullets these days is very common and there are other economic means of bringing them down. > Everyone seems to be an expert today. Pot meet kettle? Speaking as a former helicopter gunship weapons and tactics instructor (WTI), this is a VERY broad generalization. Sure, a gunship can shoot down a drone with 20mm or 30mm but you have to get pretty close. And first you have to find it. Other factors 1. target altitude 2. air superiority (MANPADS is a real threat over land) 3. marksmanship It might be more effective to throw AIM-9s on helos and target drones that way...but depending on the generation of missile those run ~$300k each and the inventory is limited. I have heard the Ukrainians are using APKWS (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon_System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon...) against drone to good effect from ground and air platforms.
- YZF 7mo ago
  In Israel helicopters are routinely taking down these drones. There are many videos of them chasing them down. There was an incident where some houses were hit by that cannon fire as well. They are finding them (presumably with radar). You're probably more of an expert than me so educate me on how this works. But it is working. But yes, some drones are also being taken down with air to air missiles. [EDIT: at least the videos from Israel] Those drones are typically shot down over your territory so air superiority and MANPADS are less of an issue. My main point was it's not the $2M THAAD missile taking down a $50k drone. EDIT: https://www.twz.com/air/ah-64-apache-is-getting-proximity-fuzed-30mm-cannon-ammo-for-swatting-down-drones#:~:text=AH%2D64%20Apache%20Is%20Getting,Tyler%20Rogoway https://www.twz.com/air/ah-64-apache-is-getting-proximity-fu... https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_naval_aviation_helicopter_downs_eight_shahed_and_gerbera_drones_over_sea_video-17645.html#:~:text=The%20video%20shows%20the%20aircraft,with%20precise%20machine%2Dgun%20fire. https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_naval_aviation_heli... https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-shot-down-3-200-shahed-type-drones-from-helicopters-in-past-year-chief-commander-says/ https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-shot-down-3-200-shahed-t... https://theaviationist.com/2026/03/10/uae-ah-64-apaches-counter-drone/ https://theaviationist.com/2026/03/10/uae-ah-64-apaches-coun... https://taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics/us-apache-pilots-drones/ https://taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics/us-apache-pilots-dro...

by YZF 7mo ago

msy 7mo ago

Absolutely agree there's both some dubious suppositions and hand-waving there. The real question is I suspect how much pressure the GCC can withstand and how much pressure they can apply to Trump directly given business ties etc. If they lose a serious chunk of desalination capacity for example the situation becomes dire extremely quickly. For Dubai simply not having a decent supply of fresh food would alone be an economic catastrophe, every day this drags on is doing reputational damage that'll take years to fully recover from long after the hotel facades are patched up.

mrtksn 7mo ago

> The blog you reference has inaccuracies. Drones are generally not shot by THAAD is a glaring one It's obvious that the author doesn't mean THAAD but Patriot, which are indeed used against drones. You can tell that by the missle cost the author mentions, which is 1/10th of the THAAD missle. As the argument is a cost effectiveness argument the logic holds, just replace THAAD with Patriot. Even though Ukraine offered their cost effective solution, they have a war to fight so any serious capacity increase will probably take months if not years and these things are not static and are quickly shaped on the battlefield so the Gulf states and Israel and USA will need to develop talent that is on the battlefield, like Russia and Ukraine did.

palmotea 7mo ago
> It's obvious that the author doesn't mean THAAD but Patriot That's a bit sloppy.
TOMDM 7mo ago
We're likely to see Ukraine some of their own domestic anti drone capability for Gulf State Patriots. Gulf States trading dollar for dollar with Ukraine on Patriots and anti drone capability is likely to leave both parties very happy.

cherry_tree 7mo ago

Why type so much with not a single drop of sourced information? > Everyone seems to be an expert today. > I'm not an expert. But Is this post intended as a joke?

YZF 7mo ago
It's intended as my informed opinion as a response to the parent less informed opinion with questionable sources. I'm not the one writing a blog and pretending to be an expert. I have some knowledge and I can write what I want. I know THAAD is against ballistic missiles and not against drones. I know Israeli helicopters have been bringing down drones. So I write that. It's true and I don't need to "source it". This isn't Wikipedia.

yutyut 7mo ago

> Helicopter gunships shoot down drones with bullets these days is very common and there are other economic means of bringing them down. > Everyone seems to be an expert today. Pot meet kettle? Speaking as a former helicopter gunship weapons and tactics instructor (WTI), this is a VERY broad generalization. Sure, a gunship can shoot down a drone with 20mm or 30mm but you have to get pretty close. And first you have to find it. Other factors 1. target altitude 2. air superiority (MANPADS is a real threat over land) 3. marksmanship It might be more effective to throw AIM-9s on helos and target drones that way...but depending on the generation of missile those run ~$300k each and the inventory is limited. I have heard the Ukrainians are using APKWS (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon_System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon...) against drone to good effect from ground and air platforms.

YZF 7mo ago
In Israel helicopters are routinely taking down these drones. There are many videos of them chasing them down. There was an incident where some houses were hit by that cannon fire as well. They are finding them (presumably with radar). You're probably more of an expert than me so educate me on how this works. But it is working. But yes, some drones are also being taken down with air to air missiles. [EDIT: at least the videos from Israel] Those drones are typically shot down over your territory so air superiority and MANPADS are less of an issue. My main point was it's not the $2M THAAD missile taking down a $50k drone. EDIT: https://www.twz.com/air/ah-64-apache-is-getting-proximity-fuzed-30mm-cannon-ammo-for-swatting-down-drones#:~:text=AH%2D64%20Apache%20Is%20Getting,Tyler%20Rogoway https://www.twz.com/air/ah-64-apache-is-getting-proximity-fu... https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_naval_aviation_helicopter_downs_eight_shahed_and_gerbera_drones_over_sea_video-17645.html#:~:text=The%20video%20shows%20the%20aircraft,with%20precise%20machine%2Dgun%20fire. https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_naval_aviation_heli... https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-shot-down-3-200-shahed-type-drones-from-helicopters-in-past-year-chief-commander-says/ https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-shot-down-3-200-shahed-t... https://theaviationist.com/2026/03/10/uae-ah-64-apaches-counter-drone/ https://theaviationist.com/2026/03/10/uae-ah-64-apaches-coun... https://taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics/us-apache-pilots-drones/ https://taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics/us-apache-pilots-dro...