4 ms·
https://polymarket.com/event/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-march https://polymarket.com/event/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of... I wonder how prediction mark
by notepad0x90 7mo ago
https://polymarket.com/event/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-march https://polymarket.com/event/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of...
I wonder how prediction markets are affecting all this.
- YZF 7mo agoIn the sense that someone is manipulating the real world to make money in the prediction markets? Otherwise it's just like options.
- notepad0x90 7mo agoNo, in the sense that he people who set oil prices and government policy alike can trade in those prediction markets. I'm all for the markets, very democratic and libertarian (not that I'm one), but policy makers, executives and other people from whom a conflict of interest by a prediction market translates into disaster for real people should be restricted from participating in these markets.
- YZF 7mo agoOK. So I think your answer is actually a yes? In this case however you can pretty much do the same thing with other financial instruments like future contract on oil. Either way, I agree decision makers shouldn't be allowed to trade (and I think are forbidden in most countries).
- notepad0x90 7mo agoYou can do the same with proper financial instruments, but there are insider trading laws that prevent those people with insider knowledge from profiting, but these markets have no such restrictions.
- YZF 7mo agoAre you sure insider trading laws do not apply? I'd be surprised.
- notepad0x90 7mo agoI'm certain, they only apply to securities.
- csomar 7mo agoThat's more like unregulated options market than a prediction market.