8 ms·

You are absolutely right in what you say regarding integration. I disagree with your final analysis of where this leaves Apple. I think Apple will continue to

You are absolutely right in what you say regarding integration. I disagree with your final analysis of where this leaves Apple. I think Apple will continue to hold a significant chunk of the "high-end" luxury market. iOS will maintain high price points and Apple will maintain its polish--and consumers with expendable income will keep their sales strong. I suspect their market share in Europe, USA, Japan, and wealthy Chinese won't drop too much (30% of market? 45%?). Android will claim the entire low-cost market--the rest of China, India, South America. I think Apple will maintain its profits, but Android will secure the majority of the world market. Apple is trying to maximize percentage of industry profit rather than percentage of industry sales.

nestlequ1k 14y ago
Sure, Apple is trying to maximize profit. But how does that help me? We're developers right? We need to find the market with the most potential. If I'm developing for a platform where the platform holder is laser focused on maximizing their profit, but not their marketshare... it seems like I've made the wrong choice. I see a lot of iPhone devs (not you specifically) try to justify Apple's shrinking marketshare by saying it's fine since Apple is still taking the total profit in the industry. Either they've heavily invested their earnings into AAPL, or they're trying to pull any stat they possibly can to justify their platform choice.
- bane 14y ago
  I agree, potentially less money in the consumer's pocket is less money they can spend on my product. I wonder how the mix of average money spent on iphone vs android apps per consumer has changed? Or at the very least, total dollars spent on apps on each platform?
  - briandear 14y ago
    But the cost-conscious consumer is typically less inclined to buy apps. This thread is relevant: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2929612 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2929612
- kemiller 14y ago
  I think it's more nuanced than that. If Apple customers are more affluent than average, and/or more willing to spend money on apps, then it continues to be a great market even if the sheer volume is lower. If you're making something that you give away for free and make money on the volume of participants somehow, then Android is probably a better bet at that point, but if that's your strategy you probably want to target everything.
- enraged_camel 14y ago
  Simple: people who have the kind of income to pay a premium for Apple devices will also be more willing and able to pay a premium for good apps. There lies your profit. (Not to mention your costs will be lower since iOS ha no fragmentation.)
  - akmiller 14y ago
    > iOS has no fragmentation I think the correct statement would be iOS has "less" fragmentation. They still have fragmentation though. Not only through the devices but also the version of iOS running on the device. It can get pretty hairy trying to maintain support for multiple iOS devices with versions of even just 4.3 and up.
    - veemjeem 14y ago
      If you think iOS is hairy supporting 4.3 and up, you probably have no experience supporting Android apps. The fragmentation extends beyond the Android version. The differences between handsets are so big that one pretty much has to ignore the users who own phones that are impossible to test with. You'll get some random complaint from a user running your app on a device from a manufacturer you've never even heard of. Look at Google's own wallet app -- it only runs on only 6 android devices. If you want to run google wallet on your Nexus S, you'll have to run a 3rd party "hacked" version of Google Wallet.
      - magicalist 14y ago
        Google wallet is a really poor example of fragmentation that a developer would run into since it has nothing to do with varying hardware and drivers, it's the carriers that are blocking it and (AFAIK) there's no reason that a developer would care whether or not the app itself is there. The hardware is accessible; Verizon and AT&T will use it for their own attempt at a payment system. That whole situation isn't really analogous to any other fragmentation you might encounter. Android development and testing really isn't all that painful, and most of the new APIs you might miss are backported and available for the more prevalent Gingerbread and now ICS.
      - 14y ago
- cloudwalking 14y ago
  > We're developers right? We need to find the market with the most potential. Are you optimizing for making money, or for making impact? There's no right or wrong platform (iOS or Android), it just depends on what your goals are.
eta_carinae 14y ago
> iOS will maintain high price points What high price points? iOS devices (phones and tablets) are pretty much at the same price as the competition.
- pook1e 14y ago
  In the past, I'd agree with you. However, comparing Google's latest lineup with Apple's latest lineup tells a much different story (all 16GB): Nexus 4: $349; iPhone 5: $699 Nexus 7: $199; iPad Mini: $329 Nexus 10: $399; iPad: $499 Of course, Apple and Google aren't in the same business, but they are very much competitors.
  - w1ntermute 14y ago
    > Apple and Google aren't in the same business And this makes a world of difference. Google is selling products at cost to drive their ad business. There's no way you can compare that to Apple's business model. The idea that Apple sells expensive products is a belief born out of the PC market, and if you want to compare apples to apples, you should be looking at the iPhone 5 vs the Samsung Galaxy S3.
    - eertami 14y ago
      > you should be looking at the iPhone 5 vs the Samsung Galaxy S3. But the S3 is so far ahead of the iPhone that it also is not a fair comparison.
      - Steko 14y ago
        What's this rubbish? iPhone 5: thinner, lighter, higher quality construction, better battery life, better cpu, better gpu, superior display quality (full sRGB, IPS, higher ppi), better ecosystem, better apps, will be regularly updated for years, better customer service, etc. GS 3: bigger screen diagonal, more RAM, NFC, better front camera Go back to Engadget kid.
        14y ago
technotony 14y ago
There's a slide in here which shows apple has ten times the app download revenues that android has: http://www.businessinsider.com/state-of-internet-slides-2012-10?op=1 http://www.businessinsider.com/state-of-internet-slides-2012...
- j-v 14y ago
  This. From an app developer's perspective, there's no contest currently. And mobile web usage isn't looking much better for Android: http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-android-mobile-web-usage-2012-6 http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-android-mobile-web-usag... No doubt more and more phones in pockets will be running Android. But how many will really be used like smart phones?
  - myko 14y ago
    Of course on Android it is easy to say 'show me the desktop version' of a site which uses a different UA which would show up as a desktop browser and not an Android phone.
  - jarek 14y ago
    > From an app developer's perspective, there's no contest currently. To be more exact, this is the perspective of a developer looking to monetize their application by selling directly to users.
ajross 14y ago
It's worth pointing out that very similar things were said about Apple computer c. 1990, as comparatively primitive[1] windows 3.0 boxes were being increasingly sold into the PC market at volumes dwarfing what Apple was seeing with their more polished and higher-margin macintosh line. That didn't work out so well. [1] And it really was. Comparing System 6 to Windows 3.0 was night and day to any observer, even people with very little market knowledge. Android is, relatively, much, much closer to iOS in polish (even granting that iOS is the "better" choice, which lots of smart people don't).
- clarky07 14y ago
  It's also worth pointing out, that Apple has kept huge market share and profits in the iPod market. Sales have only gone down recently because everyone already has 1(or 2 or 3). I'd like to think Apple has learned a few things since 90, and I also think these markets are a bit different. The compatibility problem isn't as bad this time, as most devs are making apps for both platforms, Apple still has a (slight) advantage here in terms of quality, and a fairly big advantage in terms of profitability. As long as they stay on par for profitability for devs they will keep a decent market share (20-40).
  - ajross 14y ago
    Sure, but those aren't independent variables. Their advantage in profitability derives almost entirely from their perceived advantage in quality (both because consumers will pay more for the devices in sticker price and because they can command better deals with carrier partners who know that they'll sell more boxes). Over the long term, no one is going to pay more for iOS devices that don't have a clear quality advantage. Clearly 22 years ago isn't a perfect comparison, and I don't claim to know the future either. I'm just cautioning against putting your faith in "polish" and "margins". Historically those have been poor indicators of success in the consumer market.
    - clarky07 14y ago
      I think you misunderstood. I'm talking about the apps on the platforms. The devs are making slightly better apps, and they are making significantly more on iOS. As long as those continue to be true, it will compete with users as a phone and will compete with devs as a platform.
bitcartel 14y ago
I don't think Apple are really in the "high-end" luxury market otherwise you'd see an iPhone as often as you see someone driving a Rolls-Royce Phantom or wearing an Audemars Piguet watch. I think it would be fair to compare Apple products to consumer level fashion items from luxury brands. Whether it's Armani jeans, Calvin Klein boxers or Gucci handbags, people are willing to spend a little more because of perceived value or identity with the brand, even though they can get the same product for less at Banana Republic or GAP. However unlike Apple, the likes of Louis Vuitton and Gucci do sell high-end luxury items at ridiculous prices, often unique bespoke pieces, which ordinary consumers would never be able to afford. Were Apple to be comparable, they would be selling boutique devices at $10k-$20k like a gold-plated iPhone with 5" screen, 8-core 64 bit ARM processor, 32GB ram, 512GB storage.
jusben1369 14y ago
One nitpick is the tablet isn't "up market" but rather a new market. A device that sits between an PC and a mobile phone.

nestlequ1k 14y ago

Sure, Apple is trying to maximize profit. But how does that help me? We're developers right? We need to find the market with the most potential. If I'm developing for a platform where the platform holder is laser focused on maximizing their profit, but not their marketshare... it seems like I've made the wrong choice. I see a lot of iPhone devs (not you specifically) try to justify Apple's shrinking marketshare by saying it's fine since Apple is still taking the total profit in the industry. Either they've heavily invested their earnings into AAPL, or they're trying to pull any stat they possibly can to justify their platform choice.

bane 14y ago
I agree, potentially less money in the consumer's pocket is less money they can spend on my product. I wonder how the mix of average money spent on iphone vs android apps per consumer has changed? Or at the very least, total dollars spent on apps on each platform?
- briandear 14y ago
  But the cost-conscious consumer is typically less inclined to buy apps. This thread is relevant: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2929612 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2929612
kemiller 14y ago
I think it's more nuanced than that. If Apple customers are more affluent than average, and/or more willing to spend money on apps, then it continues to be a great market even if the sheer volume is lower. If you're making something that you give away for free and make money on the volume of participants somehow, then Android is probably a better bet at that point, but if that's your strategy you probably want to target everything.
enraged_camel 14y ago
Simple: people who have the kind of income to pay a premium for Apple devices will also be more willing and able to pay a premium for good apps. There lies your profit. (Not to mention your costs will be lower since iOS ha no fragmentation.)
- akmiller 14y ago
  > iOS has no fragmentation I think the correct statement would be iOS has "less" fragmentation. They still have fragmentation though. Not only through the devices but also the version of iOS running on the device. It can get pretty hairy trying to maintain support for multiple iOS devices with versions of even just 4.3 and up.
  - veemjeem 14y ago
    If you think iOS is hairy supporting 4.3 and up, you probably have no experience supporting Android apps. The fragmentation extends beyond the Android version. The differences between handsets are so big that one pretty much has to ignore the users who own phones that are impossible to test with. You'll get some random complaint from a user running your app on a device from a manufacturer you've never even heard of. Look at Google's own wallet app -- it only runs on only 6 android devices. If you want to run google wallet on your Nexus S, you'll have to run a 3rd party "hacked" version of Google Wallet.
    - magicalist 14y ago
      Google wallet is a really poor example of fragmentation that a developer would run into since it has nothing to do with varying hardware and drivers, it's the carriers that are blocking it and (AFAIK) there's no reason that a developer would care whether or not the app itself is there. The hardware is accessible; Verizon and AT&T will use it for their own attempt at a payment system. That whole situation isn't really analogous to any other fragmentation you might encounter. Android development and testing really isn't all that painful, and most of the new APIs you might miss are backported and available for the more prevalent Gingerbread and now ICS.
    - 14y ago
cloudwalking 14y ago
> We're developers right? We need to find the market with the most potential. Are you optimizing for making money, or for making impact? There's no right or wrong platform (iOS or Android), it just depends on what your goals are.

eta_carinae 14y ago

> iOS will maintain high price points What high price points? iOS devices (phones and tablets) are pretty much at the same price as the competition.

pook1e 14y ago
In the past, I'd agree with you. However, comparing Google's latest lineup with Apple's latest lineup tells a much different story (all 16GB): Nexus 4: $349; iPhone 5: $699 Nexus 7: $199; iPad Mini: $329 Nexus 10: $399; iPad: $499 Of course, Apple and Google aren't in the same business, but they are very much competitors.
- w1ntermute 14y ago
  > Apple and Google aren't in the same business And this makes a world of difference. Google is selling products at cost to drive their ad business. There's no way you can compare that to Apple's business model. The idea that Apple sells expensive products is a belief born out of the PC market, and if you want to compare apples to apples, you should be looking at the iPhone 5 vs the Samsung Galaxy S3.
  - eertami 14y ago
    > you should be looking at the iPhone 5 vs the Samsung Galaxy S3. But the S3 is so far ahead of the iPhone that it also is not a fair comparison.
    - Steko 14y ago
      What's this rubbish? iPhone 5: thinner, lighter, higher quality construction, better battery life, better cpu, better gpu, superior display quality (full sRGB, IPS, higher ppi), better ecosystem, better apps, will be regularly updated for years, better customer service, etc. GS 3: bigger screen diagonal, more RAM, NFC, better front camera Go back to Engadget kid.
      - 14y ago

technotony 14y ago

There's a slide in here which shows apple has ten times the app download revenues that android has: http://www.businessinsider.com/state-of-internet-slides-2012-10?op=1 http://www.businessinsider.com/state-of-internet-slides-2012...

j-v 14y ago
This. From an app developer's perspective, there's no contest currently. And mobile web usage isn't looking much better for Android: http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-android-mobile-web-usage-2012-6 http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-android-mobile-web-usag... No doubt more and more phones in pockets will be running Android. But how many will really be used like smart phones?
- myko 14y ago
  Of course on Android it is easy to say 'show me the desktop version' of a site which uses a different UA which would show up as a desktop browser and not an Android phone.
- jarek 14y ago
  > From an app developer's perspective, there's no contest currently. To be more exact, this is the perspective of a developer looking to monetize their application by selling directly to users.

ajross 14y ago

It's worth pointing out that very similar things were said about Apple computer c. 1990, as comparatively primitive[1] windows 3.0 boxes were being increasingly sold into the PC market at volumes dwarfing what Apple was seeing with their more polished and higher-margin macintosh line. That didn't work out so well. [1] And it really was. Comparing System 6 to Windows 3.0 was night and day to any observer, even people with very little market knowledge. Android is, relatively, much, much closer to iOS in polish (even granting that iOS is the "better" choice, which lots of smart people don't).

clarky07 14y ago
It's also worth pointing out, that Apple has kept huge market share and profits in the iPod market. Sales have only gone down recently because everyone already has 1(or 2 or 3). I'd like to think Apple has learned a few things since 90, and I also think these markets are a bit different. The compatibility problem isn't as bad this time, as most devs are making apps for both platforms, Apple still has a (slight) advantage here in terms of quality, and a fairly big advantage in terms of profitability. As long as they stay on par for profitability for devs they will keep a decent market share (20-40).
- ajross 14y ago
  Sure, but those aren't independent variables. Their advantage in profitability derives almost entirely from their perceived advantage in quality (both because consumers will pay more for the devices in sticker price and because they can command better deals with carrier partners who know that they'll sell more boxes). Over the long term, no one is going to pay more for iOS devices that don't have a clear quality advantage. Clearly 22 years ago isn't a perfect comparison, and I don't claim to know the future either. I'm just cautioning against putting your faith in "polish" and "margins". Historically those have been poor indicators of success in the consumer market.
  - clarky07 14y ago
    I think you misunderstood. I'm talking about the apps on the platforms. The devs are making slightly better apps, and they are making significantly more on iOS. As long as those continue to be true, it will compete with users as a phone and will compete with devs as a platform.

bitcartel 14y ago

I don't think Apple are really in the "high-end" luxury market otherwise you'd see an iPhone as often as you see someone driving a Rolls-Royce Phantom or wearing an Audemars Piguet watch. I think it would be fair to compare Apple products to consumer level fashion items from luxury brands. Whether it's Armani jeans, Calvin Klein boxers or Gucci handbags, people are willing to spend a little more because of perceived value or identity with the brand, even though they can get the same product for less at Banana Republic or GAP. However unlike Apple, the likes of Louis Vuitton and Gucci do sell high-end luxury items at ridiculous prices, often unique bespoke pieces, which ordinary consumers would never be able to afford. Were Apple to be comparable, they would be selling boutique devices at $10k-$20k like a gold-plated iPhone with 5" screen, 8-core 64 bit ARM processor, 32GB ram, 512GB storage.

jusben1369 14y ago

One nitpick is the tablet isn't "up market" but rather a new market. A device that sits between an PC and a mobile phone.