6 ms·

ATH was <$148 and we're not even breaching COVID highs and we're down ~30% from three days ago.

toomuchtodo 8mo ago
If they successfully mine the Strait of Hormuz, this price target is reasonable. No insurance will cover vessels attempting to transit the strait if mined. Sal Mercogliano Of "What's Going on With Shipping?" covers this in his latest videos [1]. Bloomberg has been covering this in great detail also [2]. [1] https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping/videos https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping/videos [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/industries/energy https://www.bloomberg.com/industries/energy
- andriy_koval 8mo ago
  > If they successfully mine the Strait of Hormuz allies can just prohibit any ships to enter that area from Iranian shore or be attacked, not sure how Iran can plant those mines then.
  - mamonster 8mo ago
    Iran has an MLRS mining system. https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2025/breaking-news-iran-demonstrates-fajr-5-rocket-launcher-for-sea-mine-laying-threatening-global-maritime-security https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2025/breaking... It won't take out a military ship but its more than enough for tankers to not cross the straight.
    - andriy_koval 8mo ago
      Ok, then the only hope is that they are very few and maybe already destroyed.
      - hnburnsy 8mo ago
        US says it destroyed 16 mine-laying vessels as Iran threatens to block Gulf oil exports https://www.seattletimes.com/business/iran-fires-drones-toward-saudi-arabia-and-kuwait/ https://www.seattletimes.com/business/iran-fires-drones-towa...
        general1465 8mo ago
        You can also kick out a mine out of a speed boat or USV, so that sounds like a non issue.
        goodmythical 8mo ago
        "allies can just prohibit any (vessels) to enter that area "
        general1465 8mo ago
        Which is kind of difficult to execute when prevented party has shores all the way around the prohibited area and antiship missiles and artillery on these shores.
        deleted 8mo ago
        [deleted]
  - KellyCriterion 8mo ago
    maybe they did already?
  - general1465 8mo ago
    Shore anti-ship missiles are a thing. Also you can use regular artillery to shell ships this close to your shores - Ukrainians are able to hit a tank-sized target on 10+ kilometers with regular 155mm artillery. There is no reason why Iran should not be able to achieve the same thing with ship-sized targets. Additionally Iran has navy drones like Ukraine does. And Russians effectively run away from them and hid in Novorossiysk harbor.
  - cosmicgadget 8mo ago
    Ignoring the prohibition, for one.
general1465 8mo ago
It is dropping because countries released strategic oil reserves. That's temporary band aid.
- KellyCriterion 8mo ago
  ...and a very bad idea IMHO and will fire back soon?
  - general1465 8mo ago
    If Iran will close the strait and USA will fail to open it, then yeah very likely will shoot up.

If they successfully mine the Strait of Hormuz, this price target is reasonable. No insurance will cover vessels attempting to transit the strait if mined. Sal Mercogliano Of "What's Going on With Shipping?" covers this in his latest videos [1]. Bloomberg has been covering this in great detail also [2]. [1] https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping/videos https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping/videos [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/industries/energy https://www.bloomberg.com/industries/energy

andriy_koval 8mo ago
> If they successfully mine the Strait of Hormuz allies can just prohibit any ships to enter that area from Iranian shore or be attacked, not sure how Iran can plant those mines then.
- mamonster 8mo ago
  Iran has an MLRS mining system. https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2025/breaking-news-iran-demonstrates-fajr-5-rocket-launcher-for-sea-mine-laying-threatening-global-maritime-security https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2025/breaking... It won't take out a military ship but its more than enough for tankers to not cross the straight.
  - andriy_koval 8mo ago
    Ok, then the only hope is that they are very few and maybe already destroyed.
    - hnburnsy 8mo ago
      US says it destroyed 16 mine-laying vessels as Iran threatens to block Gulf oil exports https://www.seattletimes.com/business/iran-fires-drones-toward-saudi-arabia-and-kuwait/ https://www.seattletimes.com/business/iran-fires-drones-towa...
      - general1465 8mo ago
        You can also kick out a mine out of a speed boat or USV, so that sounds like a non issue.
        goodmythical 8mo ago
        "allies can just prohibit any (vessels) to enter that area "
        general1465 8mo ago
        Which is kind of difficult to execute when prevented party has shores all the way around the prohibited area and antiship missiles and artillery on these shores.
        deleted 8mo ago
        [deleted]
- KellyCriterion 8mo ago
  maybe they did already?
- general1465 8mo ago
  Shore anti-ship missiles are a thing. Also you can use regular artillery to shell ships this close to your shores - Ukrainians are able to hit a tank-sized target on 10+ kilometers with regular 155mm artillery. There is no reason why Iran should not be able to achieve the same thing with ship-sized targets. Additionally Iran has navy drones like Ukraine does. And Russians effectively run away from them and hid in Novorossiysk harbor.
- cosmicgadget 8mo ago
  Ignoring the prohibition, for one.

general1465 8mo ago

It is dropping because countries released strategic oil reserves. That's temporary band aid.

KellyCriterion 8mo ago
...and a very bad idea IMHO and will fire back soon?
- general1465 8mo ago
  If Iran will close the strait and USA will fail to open it, then yeah very likely will shoot up.