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Why not become a skilled craftsman and make a much better wage than in food service or retail? Every western country I've ever been in seems to have everlasting

by WJW 7mo ago

Why not become a skilled craftsman and make a much better wage than in food service or retail? Every western country I've ever been in seems to have everlasting shortages of skilled plumbers, electricians and welders and prices have risen to match.

varjag 7mo ago
Putting aside the obvious distinction of labor vs office work, are you sure about this? Like, sure as in you have tried to find a stable, well paying job in any of those trades?
keiferski 7mo ago
The un-politically correct answer is that many college educated people perceive those working in the trades to be socially beneath them. And they often have different opinions on social issues than the typical tradesperson, which is apparently really important if you’re a plumber but not if you work at BigCo.
- sarchertech 7mo ago
  I think that’s more of an urban/rural divide than anything else. Most of tech workers living in the sticks have plumbers and electricians and contractors in our social circle because that’s who has money in the boonies. But until you get to the very top of those professions, the work environment is worse in every way. You’re working 2x as many hours for 1/4 the pay, you go back to work the day after your kid is born. Your knees are just absolutely fucked. It’s in no way an equivalent job. That’s the primary reason tech workers don’t want to do it.
deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
sarchertech 7mo ago
The skilled trades are better than unskilled work. Better than retail or food service, but they certainly aren’t a replacement for white collar jobs. The median salaries for skilled trades aren’t great. You can make good money if you are willing to work a ton of overtime, or if you can manage to get one of the very limited union spots in the right city. Or if you become a business owner (and accept the corresponding risk) and mostly manage other skilled employees. It’s also not a viable solution for more than a small percent of the population. Let’s say AI comes along and forces 25% of the white collar workers out of a job, there is only enough room in the skilled trades to handle a tiny fraction of those displaced workers. That’s ignoring what massive unemployment does to salaries in the trades. And the fact that to make decent money in the trades you need years of working for peanuts first. And if you think age discrimination is a problem in tech, try breaking into the trades as a gray beard. The entry level jobs are built on the assumption that you are 20 years old and can do 12 hours of hard physical labor without needing a week off to recover. Again it’s not impossible, it’s just not a solution at any kind of scale.
- zozbot234 7mo ago
  > Let’s say AI comes along and forces 25% of the white collar workers out of a job Yeah, this is not going to happen. New job positions will open up instead, and white collar workers will be well placed to fill them since supervising an AI agent swarm is not that different from supervising the work of other humans - which is what white collar workers do as their job.
  - blackmesaind 7mo ago
    I disagree. Not all white collar workers are managers, and while I do think AI-supervision will be a growing field, it won't generate anywhere close to enough roles to replace how many ICs are going to be displaced. Companies are going to hit capital & scope resource limits (especially as model companies start extracting more value) way before they hire thousands of laid off white collar workers as additional AI supervisors. I'm equally dubious about other white collar roles filling the gap, but I'm willing to hear out any arguments. To be honest I'm kind of desperate to hear one that would convince me otherwise..
francisofascii 7mo ago
The wages for craftsman are actually not that great on average. Stories of them making 6 figures are not the norm.
joquarky 7mo ago
How does that work when you're over 50?

by WJW 7mo ago

varjag 7mo ago

Putting aside the obvious distinction of labor vs office work, are you sure about this? Like, sure as in you have tried to find a stable, well paying job in any of those trades?

keiferski 7mo ago

The un-politically correct answer is that many college educated people perceive those working in the trades to be socially beneath them. And they often have different opinions on social issues than the typical tradesperson, which is apparently really important if you’re a plumber but not if you work at BigCo.

sarchertech 7mo ago
I think that’s more of an urban/rural divide than anything else. Most of tech workers living in the sticks have plumbers and electricians and contractors in our social circle because that’s who has money in the boonies. But until you get to the very top of those professions, the work environment is worse in every way. You’re working 2x as many hours for 1/4 the pay, you go back to work the day after your kid is born. Your knees are just absolutely fucked. It’s in no way an equivalent job. That’s the primary reason tech workers don’t want to do it.

deleted 7mo ago

[deleted]

sarchertech 7mo ago

The skilled trades are better than unskilled work. Better than retail or food service, but they certainly aren’t a replacement for white collar jobs. The median salaries for skilled trades aren’t great. You can make good money if you are willing to work a ton of overtime, or if you can manage to get one of the very limited union spots in the right city. Or if you become a business owner (and accept the corresponding risk) and mostly manage other skilled employees. It’s also not a viable solution for more than a small percent of the population. Let’s say AI comes along and forces 25% of the white collar workers out of a job, there is only enough room in the skilled trades to handle a tiny fraction of those displaced workers. That’s ignoring what massive unemployment does to salaries in the trades. And the fact that to make decent money in the trades you need years of working for peanuts first. And if you think age discrimination is a problem in tech, try breaking into the trades as a gray beard. The entry level jobs are built on the assumption that you are 20 years old and can do 12 hours of hard physical labor without needing a week off to recover. Again it’s not impossible, it’s just not a solution at any kind of scale.

zozbot234 7mo ago
> Let’s say AI comes along and forces 25% of the white collar workers out of a job Yeah, this is not going to happen. New job positions will open up instead, and white collar workers will be well placed to fill them since supervising an AI agent swarm is not that different from supervising the work of other humans - which is what white collar workers do as their job.
- blackmesaind 7mo ago
  I disagree. Not all white collar workers are managers, and while I do think AI-supervision will be a growing field, it won't generate anywhere close to enough roles to replace how many ICs are going to be displaced. Companies are going to hit capital & scope resource limits (especially as model companies start extracting more value) way before they hire thousands of laid off white collar workers as additional AI supervisors. I'm equally dubious about other white collar roles filling the gap, but I'm willing to hear out any arguments. To be honest I'm kind of desperate to hear one that would convince me otherwise..

francisofascii 7mo ago

The wages for craftsman are actually not that great on average. Stories of them making 6 figures are not the norm.

joquarky 7mo ago

How does that work when you're over 50?