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Why Nate Silver's Gambling Streak Makes Me Trust Him More
- mayneack 14y agoI have no idea how much the NYT pays Silver, but they could create some sort of pay scheme such that on any given day, his pay is is a bet on the eventual outcome as a function of the odds he gives one candidate and the time until the election. Something such that as he gets closer, he should be more accurate, so a higher percent of his pay is tied to the outcome.
- waterlesscloud 14y agoI'd be a lot more impressed if he bet something that had a bite if he lost. He's not going to miss $2000 given to charity. He should bet that for 1 week after the election, the loser says nothing in public about the result. That would be a loss with bite.
- georgemcbay 14y agoWouldn't that bite be horribly uneven? Talking about the results of the election for a week after the election is (for better or for worse) essentially Joe Scarborough's job, but it isn't Nate Silver's (though it is tangentially related). Having said that, I agree, $1000 is basically meaningless to either of these guys.
- waterlesscloud 14y agoIf Obama lost and Silver couldn't talk about the result for a week after? That'd hit him pretty hard.
- r00fus 14y agoMorning Joke still didn't take the bet. Nate probably didn't care about whether he won or lost - it's just these right-wing media windbags say whatever they want, seemingly without consequence. Good that he deflated that clown.
- mdonahoe 14y agoScarborough didn't claim that Romney would win, so I don't see why he would ever take this bet.