4 ms·

Am I supposed to take away from these plots that we are all good since it's been steadily above the prior record in 1940 since 2020? Or is everything okay since

Am I supposed to take away from these plots that we are all good since it's been steadily above the prior record in 1940 since 2020? Or is everything okay since it was really going up and it did course correct to a bit more of a straight line recently? The article seems to be communicating that this rate of spending is not sustainable.

jmalicki 7mo ago
Japan debt/GDP is more than twice the US's. https://economics.stackexchange.com/questions/11792/what-level-of-government-debt-to-gdp-ratio-is-sustainable https://economics.stackexchange.com/questions/11792/what-lev... Not to say that it's okay, and Japan's economy certainly has issues with stagnation due to the debt load, but it's also not a "we have imminent hyperinflation" kind of thing either. The concern with the past five months isn't so much the level of debt, it's the rate of change - we're increasing it faster than in the past... and this isn't a COVID-level crisis or a 2008-style deep recession either where Keynesian logic might make more sense.
- arthurcolle 7mo ago
  Is Japan still the largest creditor in the world???
- andriy_koval 7mo ago
  > Japan debt/GDP is more than twice the US's. Japan borrows on 0.75% interest rate compared to current US's 3.5%.
  - toomuchtodo 7mo ago
    This is old information. Japan's borrowing costs have spiked and are ~2.18% as of this comment. Yields are surging due to their debt load (currently ~240% of GDP). Citations: https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-bond-yield https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-bond-yield https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/18/business/jgb-trade-excitement.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/18/business/jgb-trade-excite... https://www.axios.com/2026/01/26/japan-bond-market-dollar-yen https://www.axios.com/2026/01/26/japan-bond-market-dollar-ye... https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026012067/japans-long-bond-yields-surge-to-record-highs-why-it-may-be-a-problem-beyond-tokyo https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026012067/japa... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-japan-can-escape-its-debt-overhang https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-japan-can-escape-its... https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2dz11pykwno https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2dz11pykwno

jmalicki 7mo ago

Japan debt/GDP is more than twice the US's. https://economics.stackexchange.com/questions/11792/what-level-of-government-debt-to-gdp-ratio-is-sustainable https://economics.stackexchange.com/questions/11792/what-lev... Not to say that it's okay, and Japan's economy certainly has issues with stagnation due to the debt load, but it's also not a "we have imminent hyperinflation" kind of thing either. The concern with the past five months isn't so much the level of debt, it's the rate of change - we're increasing it faster than in the past... and this isn't a COVID-level crisis or a 2008-style deep recession either where Keynesian logic might make more sense.

arthurcolle 7mo ago
Is Japan still the largest creditor in the world???
andriy_koval 7mo ago
> Japan debt/GDP is more than twice the US's. Japan borrows on 0.75% interest rate compared to current US's 3.5%.
- toomuchtodo 7mo ago
  This is old information. Japan's borrowing costs have spiked and are ~2.18% as of this comment. Yields are surging due to their debt load (currently ~240% of GDP). Citations: https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-bond-yield https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-bond-yield https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/18/business/jgb-trade-excitement.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/18/business/jgb-trade-excite... https://www.axios.com/2026/01/26/japan-bond-market-dollar-yen https://www.axios.com/2026/01/26/japan-bond-market-dollar-ye... https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026012067/japans-long-bond-yields-surge-to-record-highs-why-it-may-be-a-problem-beyond-tokyo https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026012067/japa... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-japan-can-escape-its-debt-overhang https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-japan-can-escape-its... https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2dz11pykwno https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2dz11pykwno